Cheltenham Ante Post 2015

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Supreme market is a farce, Douvan and Lami Serge prices murdered after beating utter dross

Jollyallan 25/1 looks a gift
 
Boris Fenster said:
Supreme market is a farce, Douvan and Lami Serge prices murdered after beating utter dross

Jollyallan 25/1 looks a gift
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All joking aside, he will be miles better off at Cheltenham on a stiff finish than what he won with at a flat Kempton!

Think he'll be done for toe though
 
Even though not beating much today it is the visual impression created that Douvan in particular make's, he beat subsequent G1 novice hurdle winner Sizing John at his leisure beforehand also and he look's very good, it will take a really good horse or a bit of bad luck to beat him I reckon.
 
Not a big ante post but always do a Yankee. Again following some on here
Paint the clouds
Silver Concorde
Road to riches
Monks land
Apache stronghold
 
Douvan will absolutely destroy that horse of Nicky's! They'll not live with that! Oozes class. Just be a button press job I assure you ;) L'Ami will be this year's Irving. NAP <ok><laugh> Hope so anyway, keep the price better on Douvan if I want to wade in again but I'm happy enough with the 8s I got pre-Christmas time <aftertimeralertIknow>

In all seriousness Mullins will absolutely own Day 1. Faugheen, Douvan and if she makes it, Annie Power in the mares, all in a different league. Whoever runs in the Arkle will also likely be a shortie is so its NOT impossible he'll have 4 in the one day, but as we know there could be some nag like Western Warhorse save the bookies from a Mullins mauling!

Jollyallan though Boris, seriously?! Nice horse but he'll surely be outclassed in a Supremes imo <ok>

Typical bookies though, they'll cut them for eating their feed in the morning. Mind you Sprinter Sacre being halved after a freaking gallop with a stablemate handicapper is definitely the biggest piss take of the lot...
 
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<laugh> Here we go again. I've been following the horses seriously for around 10 years and, certainly in the last 5 of those, a Mullins benefit is predicted at the festival. Fair play to him he does very well there but we usually find that the top honours are shared around. Maybe this year ol Willie boy might just reverse his rather extraordinarily poor festival record over fences - 2/46 in the last 5 years. He had the favourite (or jf) in all the novice chases last year and got one place. I thought he'd be 3/47 at around 2.15 on Tuesday 10th March 2015 but I was assuming Vautour would be headed there. Can't believe the fat cat banker would be talked into going for any other race.
 
I know what you're saying Chan, his chase record is horrid BUT remember he was 2 inches from an Arkle & Gold Cup double last year, and you could argue he was on the wrong side of a dodgy decision in the Gold Cup...mind you us Lord Windermere backers took the money and ran, relieved <laugh>

Am I mistaken in thinking that Nicholls is without a chase winner since 2009 too though???

Make no mistake though, Mullins looks to have his strongest hand yet with his novice chasers he's ever had and if he doesn't get one out of Un de Sceaux, Vautour, Valseur Lido or Don Poli to win it'd be one huge shock. And personally not good for my antepost bets, though I haven't backed VL.

Still think he'll comfortably be top trainer though!
 
just at the prices beefy

if mccoy on him on the day wont be 25/1

obviously still green and a chaser but if the penny drops in the next two months he could have something up his sleeve
 
I checked out that Nicholls stat and your are correct BOS. He hasn't had a winner over fences at the festival since 2009 - Kauto Star. He had 2 others at that meeting, Chapoturgeon and Tricky Trickster. Just emphasises how hard it is to do and to be honest the fact that there is nobody utterly dominating it is part of what appeals to me about the national hunt game. I can't see much in Nicholls barn at the moment to alter that stat either. I agree that Mullins should reverse that trend shortly. My 2 of his chasers would be Vautour in the Arkle and Champagne Fever in the Queen Mum. Provided he wasn't injured lto I think Vautour will hack up (and provided Willie doesn't suffer some sort of brain freeze and enter him elsewhere!). With doubts over SS (hopefully he'll be back but can't imagine he'll be what he was) and SDG (a very nice horse but not a world beater) Champagne Fever must go here surely. Far more kudos than the Ryannair.
 
Tamerlo said:
Some fair points. Also, not many horses retain their form after a bad injury or long lay off. The odds are against Sprinter Sacre....which leads me on to Sire De Grugy. His injury was less dire and if Sacre doesn't make it to Cheltenham- or has lost his form- the 5/1 available about De Grugy will be stealing money for each way backers. His chances of returning sound from his injury are better anyway, and the 5/1 could look very big come March.
Let's face it, he has nothing to fear from the rest of the field. I'd recommend taking a chance and having a punt now.
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I get some info from the Moore yard from time to time, a friend of a friend, that sort of thing and from the last bit of news I got about SDG just before xmas is that they're genuinely worried that he might not make the festival. If your betting ante post NR money bac then you've nowt to lose but as I understand it at the moment it's less than 50/50 he won't be turning up. I doubt I'm the only person who has heard this so maybe that's also a reason for the shortening of SS price
 
I've spent the morning looking at the Supreme market and I have got to say it is incredible. I don't know if people have spent some time on it yet but the top of the market (best odds available) is:

Douvan - 5/2
L'Ami Serge - 5/1
Alvisio Ville - 8/1
Silver Concorde - 16/1
Nichols Canyon - 20/1
Moon Racer - 20/1
Jollyallan - 25/1

Douvan is a worthy fav to my eye. L'Ami Serge should be second fav. After that you have got Alvisio Ville, a JP/Mullins horse that's run once and that form has been blown to pieces. Silver Concorde lost LTO but the ground was against him and he will be better on good March ground. Nichols Canyon fell LTO but looked good before that. Probably running in the Neptune. Moon Racer - has never run over a hurdle in public. Jollyallan - could be good. Has done everything that's been asked of him so far. Beat a Mullins yard stack LTO quite easily and to be honest I doubt that run has given the Irish a real indication of how good he is or not.

This is not a good race. There's probably value in backing Silver Concorde and Jollyallan each way at the moment but with last minute concessions available on the day re places and prices, it's most likely better to wait.
 
Supreme is one of my fav races but I havent even mentioned it really. It is utter dross this year and the market has it right at the moment.

Are any maidens/debutants coming out who might add some depth?
 
[QUOT"TopClass, post: 7486213, member: 1011503"]Supreme is one of my fav races but I havent even mentioned it really. It is utter dross this year and the market has it right at the moment.

Are any maidens/debutants coming out who might add some depth?[/QUOTE]
There Is bound to be another horse out there but Mullins has six outta the top ten in the betting. I'd love Shaneshill to go for this at 20/1
 
Well I have been away for a few years but it looks like this Forum is getting back to how it used to be! For those that remember me 'hello again' for those that don't 'welcome :-)'!!
I will offer a breakdown of my bets as I concentrate all year studying for the festival, Epsom and Aintree.
I will list my selections and prices taken, the aim of the game being getting what I perceive as value :-)
 
GDC said:
Well I have been away for a few years but it looks like this Forum is getting back to how it used to be! For those that remember me 'hello again' for those that don't 'welcome :)'!!
I will offer a breakdown of my bets as I concentrate all year studying for the festival, Epsom and Aintree.
I will list my selections and prices taken, the aim of the game being getting what I perceive as value :)
Click to expand...
 
Supreme: I have Nicholls Canyon EW at 25s but have admitted defeat and a loser! Consequently I have backed Silver Concorde EW at 25s, Douvan will win however as that was mightily impressive!!
Arkle: Looks a tricky event this year and I have taken a punt on Vibrato Valtat at 20s.
Champion: Faugheen looks good but hasn't met anything like Jezki or my selection TNO.
Mares: there for Annie to lose but just in case she goes elsewhere I have been backing Glens Melody EW at all rates from 12s down to 8s.
NH Chase: I was all over my 'banker' for the meeting of Don Poli at fancy odds but have resigned (and backed) him for the RSA again at good odds. I have also backed The Young Master 'win' only at 14s.
 
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