Li'l Southampton.

[ImpSaint]

It's not just their results, mate. Look at all the underlying statistics. They've played a reasonably difficult schedule and had excellent numbers in terms of shots conceded and shots taken. Previous teams have overperformed for a few months (like West Brom did and were in the top 4 until early November) and then dropped off, but this Southampton team is different statistically. You can easily see where West Ham are getting the rub of the draw and their finishing is outperforming the norm which will surely correct itself, but with Southampton it's not just a bit of good fortune - they're a really good team.

Southampton will be our biggest challenge for top 4. They will surely struggle a bit at some point, and they're never going to finish on 90 points but they're so far ahead right now that they can afford to have a couple of poor results and still be well ahead of ourselves, Spurs and United. We need for them to start dropping points in a very big hurry, honestly.

 

[greensaint]

It's not just their results, mate. Look at all the underlying statistics. They've played a reasonably difficult schedule and had excellent numbers in terms of shots conceded and shots taken. Previous teams have overperformed for a few months (like West Brom did and were in the top 4 until early November) and then dropped off, but this Southampton team is different statistically. You can easily see where West Ham are getting the rub of the draw and their finishing is outperforming the norm which will surely correct itself, but with Southampton it's not just a bit of good fortune - they're a really good team.

Southampton will be our biggest challenge for top 4. They will surely struggle a bit at some point, and they're never going to finish on 90 points but they're so far ahead right now that they can afford to have a couple of poor results and still be well ahead of ourselves, Spurs and United. We need for them to start dropping points in a very big hurry, honestly.

Nice to read that wasn't it. They're not all blinkered fools on that forum.
But god (please, pretty please) let us still be in the mix come January. If only to finally rid (cure) me of my residual old Saints doom and gloom attitude.

 

[fran-MLs little camera]

I do feel that Koeman is a better manager and we will get more from the harder games than last season, but I will be pleased to move on from here....our position is still too close to last season's and Wigan's (at the same point of the season) for my liking. Saints and Wigan did not end up in such a high position as bigger clubs with similar results at this time of the season. The difference this season is the size of the gap...we just have to keep doing the same or (hopefully) even better than our rivals. Easy

 

[ChilcoSaint]

From the end of November onwards last year we were crippled by a succession of injuries to key players and back up players that led to us falling off the heights. In quick succession we lost Boruc (broken hand), Schneiderlin (knock to pelvis), Clyne (hamstring), and Wanyama (broken leg), and we already had Danny Fox, Guly do Prado and Kelvin Davis out. Then in January we lost Lovren for a few games, and in March Jay Rodriguez ruptured his ACL. Hopefully the areas where we are still short of strength in depth will be addressed in the January window, mainly goalkeeper and right back, and maybe an extra striker.

 

[TheSecondStain]

From the end of November onwards last year we were crippled by a succession of injuries to key players and back up players that led to us falling off the heights. In quick succession we lost Boruc (broken hand), Schneiderlin (knock to pelvis), Clyne (hamstring), and Wanyama (broken leg), and we already had Danny Fox, Guly do Prado and Kelvin Davis out. Then in January we lost Lovren for a few games, and in March Jay Rodriguez ruptured his ACL. Hopefully the areas where we are still short of strength in depth will be addressed in the January window, mainly goalkeeper and right back, and maybe an extra striker.

Exactly. Any football team that tries to be successful has to be relatively injury free to properly succeed. Even the biggest clubs can't quite get around that problem. It just hurts them less if and when injuries occur.

 

[fran-MLs little camera]

From the end of November onwards last year we were crippled by a succession of injuries to key players and back up players that led to us falling off the heights. In quick succession we lost Boruc (broken hand), Schneiderlin (knock to pelvis), Clyne (hamstring), and Wanyama (broken leg), and we already had Danny Fox, Guly do Prado and Kelvin Davis out. Then in January we lost Lovren for a few games, and in March Jay Rodriguez ruptured his ACL. Hopefully the areas where we are still short of strength in depth will be addressed in the January window, mainly goalkeeper and right back, and maybe an extra striker.

That has actually cheered me up...that was a horrible range of injuries. We can expect some, but not as many as that. Also encouraging that you mention do Prado and Fox being out....we don't have to rue the absence of players of that calibre now. I had forgotten so much of this, because of the major brain overload during the summer.

 

[ImpSaint]

From the end of November onwards last year we were crippled by a succession of injuries to key players and back up players that led to us falling off the heights. In quick succession we lost Boruc (broken hand), Schneiderlin (knock to pelvis), Clyne (hamstring), and Wanyama (broken leg), and we already had Danny Fox, Guly do Prado and Kelvin Davis out. Then in January we lost Lovren for a few games, and in March Jay Rodriguez ruptured his ACL. Hopefully the areas where we are still short of strength in depth will be addressed in the January window, mainly goalkeeper and right back, and maybe an extra striker.

TBH yes we had injuries but the fall off in November last year was not as much to do with injuries as with our team and manager's naivety (plus the refs)

Our falloff started when our goalkeeper made a horrendous cock up at the emirates and was confounded when Fonte was penalised for doing something that every defender does several times a game.

It was continued by Mourinho instructing his attack dog Ramires to kick us into oblivion half way through the first half when we were winning 1-0 and were reasonably comfortable plus the referee allowing him to do so until finally giving him a yellow late in the second half. Ramires should have had at least 2 yellows in the first half and thus we would have been 1-0 up and playing 10 men.

That messed up the momentum we had (which we have again now) and injuries or not, if that momentum had been continued (even with a draw against these 2) we may well have waltzed over Villa rather than losing to them.

I can't see us making those mistakes this time round although we can't really account for how the referee is going to perform in those key games when we are playing the 'big 6' teams.

 

[Pelletron]

I'm starting to look at the non-traditional top six teams below us as the supporting riders in the Tour De France; looking to support us by playing above themselves and taking points of our competitors to help us blow everything at the top open! Wishful thinking, I know, but I look to those teams for help every week on Final Score.

And I do think that by Swansea and West Ham being up there too, they are genuinely playing for a high finish, and raising their game accordingly against the bigger teams, who they are no longer scared of. West Ham may well struggle during the ACON, as they'll lose three of their arguably most important players.

 

[Pelletron]

By the way, am I right in thinking that Spurs are now the only team we have not taken at least one point from since our promotion back to the PL?

And that - aside from Spurs - Arsenal, Man Utd and Everton are the only teams we haven't beaten? (Not counting Burnley here, by the way, as we are yet to play them.) Or have we beaten Everton? I can't remember now - only remember the loss and the 0-0 draw, leaving two unaccounted for results in my memory.

 

[Jose Fonte baby]

By the way, am I right in thinking that Spurs are now the only team we have not taken at least one point from since our promotion back to the PL?

And that - aside from Spurs - Arsenal, Man Utd and Everton are the only teams we haven't beaten? (Not counting Burnley here, by the way, as we are yet to play them.) Or have we beaten Everton? I can't remember now - only remember the loss and the 0-0 draw, leaving two unaccounted for results in my memory.

Beat Everton last year. Well, kind of - 2 own goals!

 

[Jose Fonte baby]

That has actually cheered me up...that was a horrible range of injuries. We can expect some, but not as many as that. Also encouraging that you mention do Prado and Fox being out....we don't have to rue the absence of players of that calibre now. I had forgotten so much of this, because of the major brain overload during the summer.

Plus we can expect JWP back at the end of the month and Rodriguez around Christmas.

 

[Deserana]

The next 4 games will tell all.

10 games in last season we were high flying in the table with (I believe) the best defence in the league or at least a very good record and 12 seconds in Begovic lobbed Boruc we drew 1-1 and our form declined into LWLLLDDLWL. Yes there are a lot of different things here, new manager, players but before that game we lost 1 game out of 10.

There were also multiple injuries which really is our only visible weakness so far.

A win against Villa is vital.

 

[tomw24]

The next 4 games will tell all.

10 games in last season we were high flying in the table with (I believe) the best defence in the league or at least a very good record and 12 seconds in Begovic lobbed Boruc we drew 1-1 and our form declined into LWLLLDDLWL. Yes there are a lot of different things here, new manager, players but before that game we lost 1 game out of 10.

There were also multiple injuries which really is our only visible weakness so far.

A win against Villa is vital.

No it's not and I'll tell you why and what the big difference is this season to last season. Last season we were never a minimum of 8 points ahead of 3 Champions League contenders. We could have a dip in form and still be in the top 4. The top of the table was a lot closer last season.

 

[Deserana]

So a loss against Villa would do nothing going into what is by far our biggest game of the season so far? Sorry but I dont agree no matter how different the table is to last season.

 

[fran-MLs little camera]

May not be vital, but a win against Villa is important going into a tranche of games against the big teams. It takes a little pressure off. We must carry on winning the 'easier' games...that could be good enough to keep us near the top.

 

[Kingsland block 37]

So a loss against Villa would do nothing going into what is by far our biggest game of the season so far? Sorry but I dont agree no matter how different the table is to last season.

I agree with this, going into the Man City game knowing that they can't go above us will be a huge psychological boost

 

[Deserana]

May not be vital, but a win against Villa is important going into a tranche of games against the big teams. It takes a little pressure off. We must carry on winning the 'easier' games...that could be good enough to keep us near the top.

Yeah maybe I was unclear but this is what I meant. Just in terms of the players mindset say we draw against Villa they may think crap we've just dropped 2 points then start worrying about the next 3 games in terms of where the points will come. Koeman has installed such a confidence though that this may be no issue.

 

[tomw24]

So a loss against Villa would do nothing going into what is by far our biggest game of the season so far? Sorry but I dont agree no matter how different the table is to last season.

You said a win is vital. I didn't say anything about a loss. A point at Villa would not be a bad result. This time last year, we were 3rd, 3 points off the top. But only 5 points separated us and Newcastle in 9th and we were only 2 points away from 5th and we were surrounded by all the big clubs. We're 7 points clear of 4th this season and got a big gap over most of the big clubs. we won't and don't need to win every game to stay in the top 4.

 

[tomw24]

May not be vital, but a win against Villa is important going into a tranche of games against the big teams. It takes a little pressure off. We must carry on winning the 'easier' games...that could be good enough to keep us near the top.

Pressure? I don't think we're under any pressure at all to be honest. The pressure is on Arsenal, Liverpool and City, and to an extent Chelsea. Chelsea are everyone's clear favourites to win the league, so all eyes are on them, City are struggling to keep up with both us and Chelsea, and Arsenal and Liverpool are well behind the top 2.

 

[fran-MLs little camera]

I meant the pressure that could happen if we had a run of losses. The pressure at the moment is on the teams below us, but that could turn round. If we beat most sides, draws against the bigger teams will favour us as we are in the position of strength.