Premier League Thread

You didn't lose me, but I lost my head

 

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Has anyone seen this? Top four... Here we come?

 

There are a few of these statistical predictions beginning to emerge now. Nick Iliingsworth has come up with the theory that as no team has ever won the Premier League from a position of less than 18 points after 10 games, that makes the title a three-horse race, although Arsenal have 18 in 4th place.

http://www.fansnetwork.co.uk/football/southampton/news/36768/?

 

I know the odds favour us...after we are only 3/1 to be top 4, but we mustn't forget that Wigan were on 22 points after 10 games and then flirted with relegation. We are better than that, but nothing certain till the fat lady sings. Still love it though.

 

As usual, wise words Fran. I will still be very with top ten to be honest.

 

I have serious hopes of top 4, but top 6 still excellent.

 

The odds say we're more likely to win the League than Liverpool.

 

Oh come on, the suspense is killing me ... You will still be very what?

 

Betfair have us at 80 and Liverpool at 100. Which is about right. Only City have a realistic chance of stopping the Chelsea juggernaut. I still wouldn't completely rule out Arsenal, but they've probably left themselves too much to do.

 

I'm already struggling to hold back thoughts of us being in with a shout of a top four finish come the end of the season. If we win these next two games (and I think we will), those thoughts will be ever stronger.

Arsenal prove year after year that you can finish in the top four without getting many points against the big boys.

 

People say we have played only the easy games, but you have to win those. Plenty of top sides drop points where they shouldn't.

 

Plastics! Only ever come to the big games.

 

Very happy I should have said!

We all know I'm not as positive as you FLT I am starting to dream though...

 

good lad!!

 

Don't know whether it has already been posted, but ex-Saint Kevin Keegan has said some really nice things about the Club reported today on BBC Sport. Talks about Saints "being capable of playing the big teams at football, which is what will really please the Southampton fans, they're not going out there and setting up to defend."

Anyway, why don't I just get on and link the video. Great words from one of my football heroes: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/29904745

 

You're doing a red top there. that is part of the statement. They are making out we thought he was amazing last year and have changed our opinion. The point is that we haven't. He was amazing last year, he is a good defender now. Just not a leader.

Mirror looking at things in black and white there. Liverpool bought excellent players but have a clueless manager that doesn't know what he is doing with them.

Case in point tonight. Toure is Liverpool's only CB that can lead and organise but they only put him in to 'rest' the others. Plays a blinder and will be back to the bench at the weekend.

Hate Lallana for being a lying little gnome traiter but I hate Ronaldo the cheat more and it was good to see Lallana stick him on his arse tonight.

 

Wrong Thread

 

Although I am no gambler on frivolous betting, I'll admit that the slightly skewed way that they do things at Paddy Power does occasionally raise a smile. So at least they bring some fun to the table as they're gently releasing millions of pounds from punters.

Anyway, now they're eating Humble Pie, and they're quite happy to say so: http://blog.paddypower.com/2014/11/...tipped-for-relegation-to-top-four-contenders/

Yes, it is the same old re-hash of names, but at least they're showing the potted history of the last few months in referred articles, and they're comparing Saints fortunes against the club who we lost a key quarter of the team to... Liverpool.

 

So, decided to see roughly what the remainder of the season would need to look like for us to finish fourth. On average, 5th place plus one point (ie., the minimum threshold to actually finish fourth without GD taken into account, rather than the actual points total of the fourth-placed side) over the past ten seasons has been 66. Were that the threshold this year, our remaining 28 games would need to produce 1.57 points/game...a pace a mere 1 point per ten games higher than we accomplished over the whole of last season. 13 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses (or 12/8/8) would get it done.

However, that has changed in recent years. The comical separation between 3rd and 5th or 6th that existed in most seasons during the aughts is no longer present, with tighter positioning in the top third of the league as more clubs have joined the hunt for CL spots, while the gap between Europa-calibre sides of the mid-table has expanded greatly. Narrow the focus to the past five years, and you end up with a threshold of 69 points...1.68 points per game, a pace equivalent to what Man U accomplished last year on the way to 7th. 14 wins (a 50% win rate), 5 draws and 9 losses (or 13/8/7) would suffice.

...but that too might not be enough. The trend has peaked at 73 points the last two years, with Everton and Tottenham nipping at the heels of the CL spots, and the in-year results of the traditional top clubs getting awfully variable. If that's the threshold, we'd need something like 15 wins, 6 draws and just 7 losses.


So, basically, it's never too early to start cheering against Man U/Liverpool/Everton/Spurs slip-ups.

 

i'll get right on that.