Had a more in depth look at Gonna Run in the Derby as I see there has been some money for him, hes as short as 9/1 now with Hills. Noticed he ran over 10f at Longchamp so compared his run to that of Free Port Lux who ran 2nd over that c+d in the Prix La Force, and the winner of that race who does not run, Gailo Chop.
Gonna Run 1st - Prix de Champerret (Conditions) -- Longchamp 2000m -- Ground - Good
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First half of the race was very slowly run in comparison with the Prix La Force which contributed to the slow overall time. Gonna Run was held up towards the rear, closed between the 3 and the 2 pretty comfortably and put the race to bed with hands and heels only, jockey easing off before the line.
Free Port Lux 2nd - Prix La Force (Group 3) -- Longchamp 2000m -- Ground - Good
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Free Port Lux was also held up towards the rear in his race, he was 3rd last turning in travelling strongly, and still there 2 out, he challenged down the outside and sustained his run to the line but was held just under a length by Gailo Chop.
Gailo Chop 1st - Prix La Force (Group 3) -- Longchamp 2000m -- Ground - Good
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Gailo Chop had the box seat from the start and a lovely lead all the way, he was a bit short of room 2 out and had to sit and suffer while Free Port Lux had a clear run on the outside. He got the run though and was a length too good for Free Port Lux on the day.
Initially when I first watched the
race, I thought Gailo Chop may have been value for more than the winning margin but the numbers suggest maybe not. While he was short of room, the leader who was never hassled in front was not dropping back on him, it was only in the final furlong that the leader started to feel the pinch and in a way it worked out absolutely perfect for Gailo Chop to get the run when he did. I think that is absolutely as good as Gailo Chop is, he could not have had the race run to suit more pefrectly, and I think he is a well above average animal, he franked the form next time winning the Prix Noailles comfortably from the front, he looks Group 2 class at least.
Free Port Lux comes out as just about the best horse in the race for me, he ran the last 3f around 2L faster than the winner, ive got him clocking sub 11s between the 2 and the 1, even if im off a little, it was defintely the fastest furlong. In a hypothetical Group 1 run at Championship gallop I would fancy him to run past Gailo Chop, although that one does look tailormade for these French races.
When looking into Gonna Run's race, its clear to see it was nowhere near the level of the Prix La Force, as you would expect anyway comparing a
conditions race to a Group 3, the overall time is not important but I think the numbers for the second half of the race could be. He ran the second half of the race 16L slower, the final 3f 13.5L slower and at top speed his strongest furlong was 3L slower than Free Port Lux's, this off a much easier first 5f. He was by no means all out and was eased off close home, but he was asked fairly forcefully to go about his business and must have hit close to top speed between the 2 and the 1. It looks to have been a very weak race and while im not knocking this horse, hes unbeaten and has not yet had the chance to show what he can do in a serious race, but based on what he has actually achieved on the track he should be closer to 90/1 than 9/1. Its not impossible of course, he does look a nice horse in his own right and could improve out of all recognition but it looks to me like he will have to. I think if he was really a genuine Group 1 animal ready to win a Derby in a months time he would have dismissed that field by 5 going on 10 the way he was ridden from 2 out. Stanger things have probably happened and he does have a nice draw but for him to be shorter than Free Port Lux seems absolutely absurd to me.
I may try and get a price about Free Port Lux for the Arc before the race tomorrow as he is not quoted, his dam was a Grade 1 winner at 10f and a Group 2 winner at 12f, and Freddy Head has mentioned the Grand Prix De Paris for him. He seemed to improve again for an extra furlong in the Hocquart so 1m4 looks on the cards. Its a bit of a shot in the dark, I think he is bordering on Group 1 class though and if he can keep improving you never know, would have to win tomorrow you would have thought if hes going to be up to competing in an Arc.
He should have been feet up after the 4th set but errors crept in as the line came into sight! I really think he wanted finished up to get set to watch the boxing, he's good mates with Groves apparently.
