Top four next year.....

Yes there will be movement of players. But I seriously think that the spend on big names will be very limited and that there is a sell to buy element imposed by the Glazers. They do not need to splurge this Summer, they can take 4-5 widows to achieve their objectives without hurting themselves financially. Now that is what I see the Glazers doing.

 

Well you have no Lukaku, no Barry, no Delefeu as soon as the season finished. You are already far weaker.
As for Utd, I expect them to do much better, but to be similar to a Tottenham with signing too many players.
The chavs and city will be the ones to catch and I think the top 4 will be much the same next year, just in a different order.

 

But you got to keep the match ball (unless someone else scored three or more). Always seems to be like that in sport, the 'easy ones' are the ones you don't get then you just pull something out of the bag and think how the **** have I managed that. *Answer: Skill*

Am gonna buy myself a new road bike once comp claim finally comes through... can get it from local shop I were in today with good discount, be good to put some business his way, made me a brew and we had a good chat while he did the work (free fitting too).

 

I disagree. Utd's market capitalization is based on the number of shares that are issued (regardless of who owns them).....In the last few years, they've leveraged this to raise cash. Utd's revenue has increased nicely over the last 5 years but NOT anything like their market capitalisation. Their share price and effectively what they base everything on is a forward looking figure that assumes Utd will once again be challenging for titles and in the CL next year.....if they don't achieve this, what do you think will happen to it? If their share price halves, they'll have to give twice as much away if they try to raise more capital to invest. Their success off the pitch, as you rightly point out, is vast....but IS directly linked to success on the pitch. To suggest otherwise is folly. Debt in an organisation is a good thing as far as investors are concerned....or at least the right ratio of debt to market capitalization. If the latter falls, that ratio increases and the share value looks much less attractive....and it falls some more. A vicious circle that many suffered from post 2008. Utd are safe right now for precisely the reasons you pointed out but they WILL HAVE TO invest very heavily to dig themselves out of their hole or they will suffer. Whether that's £200m or $200m remains to be seen but I'll bet you a cash sum right now, it won't be below the latter. We're only talking 4 or 5 Mata's here.....and they need an entire first class defence and midfield to compete!!! Scary numbers imo. I guess we'll soon find out.

 

I'd love a new bike. The one I have is about eighteen year old now (had it from new) and its about had it. Not that I get out on it often nowadays. Used to be out on it every day until I got a car

 

Now ask yourself what the share price is based upon. The true answer is 2 things - sentiment and dividend. Now dividend is no problem for United. Sentiment however is a very different animal. They have taken the 'shock' of losing Gill and Ferguson, last years poor performance is already yesterdays news as far as Wall Street is concerned. However if you go and splurge 200 million (as you say the currency doesn't really matter) and do a Spurs then that is going to have an effect on the share price.

If you look at what I said you will note that I am suggesting that they take their time. They've already had to get rid of one manager. They've just appointed another so the risk factors have already increased. Therefore it makes good executive sense to keep a money brake on. Keep the ship steady and take a number of windows to prepare yourself for a true attack on the top. There really is no MUST in this at all - that just piss poor strategic thinking (TINA).

 

Look that number is fine until you think hmmmmm premier league rule and Uefa ffp will be smashed by utd in this case if they spend that in one window on top of mata etc

Reality check is...... How many players will they actually find to come.... I personally think now van gaal is there they will attract but who? They need top class players not just anyone!

Well we will see

 

They could of taken their time with Moyes. He had a plan over a number of windows to rebuild the team didn't he? Why change then? That doesn't make any sense at all. Why appoint a manager who has a limited number of years left at the top if it's a long term vision you're after?

As for share price, it rose when they signed Mata. That's sentiment.....it fell away post signature when it became clear that they were still ****. If they sign four or five top notch players, it will rise again and will only fall if they underachieve....As for dividend, this is purely based on financial performance...which will suffer if Utd continue to perform poorly and not qualify for the CL again....As the share price has picked up post Moyes, I'd argue that the street has factored in a massive rebuilding investment this year. How else could they secure the sustainable (revenue) growth that they've seen recently? It has to be through a winning team. Everything from sponsorship to merchandise sales will be affected. Poor strategy would be what they've just been through, allowing a squad to age with no investment, no real succession planning, minimal leadership evident all round....they've cash cowed Utd and are now suffering the consequences......If you're suggesting that it'd be business as usual, you are also suggesting that their strategy has been sound. We both know that it hasn't.

They have pretty much stated that they MUST get into the top four for their financial model to work. The debt is not an issue as long as the value of the company remains high, nor is raising capital for that matter.....But they have to perform on the pitch to do this. That won't be very cheap at all, the only thing we're debating is how many windows they spunk their money over. For top four next year, they need to spend it all over the next season (2 windows). Now note, that I believe that this kind of investment is only necessary due to the piss poor management and awful strategy employed previously.....and I think they realised this when the spent on Mata mid year. When have Utd ever bought big like that mid year? These are interesting times, I don't think there is any appetite for a slow climb back to the top at all. Time will tell I guess.

 

I think that they already had over £100m in the bank at year end (can't remember the actual number)....anyway, investing £200m in assets that can be written off over five years is different to the actual running costs of the club.....which is more about what FFP is about. It's just how you count those beans....and Utd can go to the market and raise another £200m to invest relatively easily. We will see indeed.....interesting transfer window ahead....just hope they don't steal our targets away while they're throwing money about!!

 

Time will most certainly tell which way United actually do go. But perhaps the one thing that I am sure of is the attitude of the Glazers and that is not to risk large wads of their money. They have never done so in their other investments and I don't see them doing so with United. The decision is not a footballing one per se. It actually is probably not even one truly of corporate strategy. It does however have a lot to do with the personalities of the members of the Glazers family and the machinations regarding succession.

United's footballing problems can be overcome over a number of transfer windows with judicious sales and purchases without effecting the bottom line (a far better marker than capitalisation) too badly.

 

Any of the current top four can fall behind next season. I hope it's Chelsea.

 

The Glazers won't have to risk their own cash. They'll use United's cash reserves and the club will accrue some additional short term debt.

The capitalisation is where the Glazers will ultimately take their return. It therefore the prime factor from their standpoint, the short term P&L only matters in terms of how it impacts on the capitalisation via the markets.

A United that isn't competing for titles and playing in the Worlds premium club competition isn't going to retain it's current market value for long. If you require any validation of how important a part of their strategy this is, then just look at Moyes contract and the fact that they shot him the moment they could no longer mathematically qualify for the European gravy train.

 

So look at the game plan Tobes. No matter what United may wish to do it's the Glazers and what they and their advisers believe is in their best interests that will decide what actually happens. Now there are no indications that they are yet ready to divest themselves of United. Therefore the day to day movements are of little consequence to them. They can plot a far more risk-averse strategy over the next two seasons without truly effecting the commercial value of the club. Nobody is saying that thy won't buy over this Summer. What I am saying is that the number and price of those acquisitions will be far lower than market expectations.

Put yourself in Glazers place. You've just paid (handsomely) to get rid of 1 manager. You've now appointed another who has no experience of the Premiership. You already have 4 recognised stars in the first 11 (more than the majority of your competitors) AND you only have to play domestic competitions. I'm sure you'd be saying show me what you can do with this lot and then I'll take the big money risk!

Yes all the talk out of OT will be positive and aggressive but then talk is cheap.

 

You're speaking as if those views would conflict, when the reality is that they all want and NEED the same outcome.

I would argue that the 'risk averse' strategy that you're suggesting will be their chosen path, is in fact quite the reverse, as without the level of success they've had for 2 decades their commercial value will drop like a stone. Not only in terms of new deals, but you can be sure that their current contracts have success clauses as part of them and no CL football will severely damage the business in a short span of time. As football is a fickle business.

Don't forget that the CL gravy train revenues virtually double for the season after next btw......

What they end up spending will be sizeable this summer, whether they make the right signings and can blend them into a team quickly, is another thing all together, but they'll certainly spend the money Dave.

Moyes departure only cost them a years salary due to his contract clause btw.

 

You are being far too myopic. United's reputation and attractiveness and worldwide fan base is NOT going to disappear over night. They have plenty of scope to grow even further their commercial income. All they have to do is look at the commercial success of Liverpool and Ajax etc. to see that there is an alternative to galactico spending. Liverpool managed to grow their commercial income significantly whilst not being involved in European football. So your assertion is incorrect. After that they can cast their eyes to the other side of Manchester and see just how long it took City to actually build a team from a group of individual 'stars'.

Just stop and think. You've got a new manager. You buy a number of high rep/high cost players. You've then got to achieve results immediately. Where does that leave you if it doesn't work? The risk factors have been grown significantly and the cost of repairing the damage have grown even more - whilst still jeopardising future CL prospects. In that fairly likely scenario, given the Spuds experience, you are left with a lot more than egg on your face.

I don't care about (football genius) Moyes but I'll wager that he got more than the contract clause stipulated.

 

#loveshack

 

Anyway, the essential thing about United is that they have lost the fear factor. Spend or not spend over the Summer that is something that they are not going to regain in a hurry.

So, as the Italian driver said in The Gumball Rally "What'sa behind me, don'ta concern me"

 

That's a ridiculous assertion.

To use the example of Liverpool growing their commercial revenues whilst being outside of the CL, and then concluding that it'll therefore not be of detriment to Manchester United is absolute rot.

Your commercial revenues are less than 2/3rds of Uniteds and have grown significantly due to some good work by FSG and therefore there was an under performance in this area under the previous owners.

Not being at the pinnacle of the game WILL affect their commercial revenues, as the value of their brand becomes weakened by the lack of TV exposure in the CL and they've clearly stated that they see this season as a one off.

 

As you pointed out, the Glazers haven't risked one red cent with Utd.....ever! They leveraged the purchase price against the club and have floated a % of the club on the market to raise capital (and pay down some of that debt)......They take a healthy 'service/managemente charge' out of the club each year and watch as their asset grows at a pace unseen in the past....they've gone from a $800m to a $3b (market cap) business in the space of their tenure, while their revenue has not even doubled......As Tobes quite rightly pointed out, they're in it for the net gain of the asset. (nice that we can agree on something close season!) As it stands, they'll be looking to pocket a a billion dollars for a zero net risk over what, eight to ten years or so......not bad work if you can get it! Do you really think that they'd risk that?

TBH, most clubs (and businesses) with Utd's leveraged financial model have failed badly.....just look at our own problems in the recent past. Utd had scale and growth and unprecedented success driving both in their favour.....so it has worked for them.....but take away the success and this will, undoubtedly, be diminished.

 

5th at best for us.

#Realist