Daily Thread Friday 15th November

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Bluesky9

Bluesky9

Philosopher
Jun 21, 2011
2,851
290
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A busy Friday with meetings at Cheltenham, Lingfield, Newcastle Wolverhampton & Dundalk.

Although Cheltenham will obviously attract the attention with regard quality I wanted to put up a bet early as I think it is a great bet at a price that will go by morning.

Lingfield
2.30 Senator Bong 13-2
This horse only returned to action in September this year but is clearly felt to be on a decent mark on account of the fact he was backed into favourite with Ryan Moore put up for his seasonal debut. He ran well three times on turf without troubling the judge, tomorrow however he steps up a furlong which I feel will be in his favour and drops back into grade 5 company. I fear Novellan Lad but at 13-2 I think Senator Bong is a great bet.
 
I would be having a massive bet on Renard if Aidan Coleman hadn't jumped ship to ride Venetia's stable debutant Elenika (who he has never ridden before). Can't understand the switch at all. Have backed both and done the RFC
 
I like Balthazar King but can't be having it at 2/1 so two to go against it are Chicago Grey and Zest For Life at 5s and 8s respectively on PP
 
In the 2.40 at Cheltenham Paul Nicholls' Atlantic Roller catches the eye in what is a very competitive affair. This son of Old Vic made his debut in a very hot bumper at Ascot in February 2012 and finished 2nd to Royal Guardsman, with Nicky Henderson's River Maigue back in 3rd. His 2nd race, behind Three Old Amigos, was a muddling affair to be honest and I would put a line through it. Atlantic Roller then made his hurdles debut last November and put up a good performance to win a slowly run affair with, in the end, some authority. The 6 horses who finished behind him that day have all subsequently won - Gas Line Boy a handicap chase off 127, Billy No Name a maiden and rated 121, Salmanazar now rated 133, De la Bech won a novice chase and rated 127, The Potting Shed wona chase and at 115 and Alborobello having won a maiden to be rated 121. None of them world beaters but I think it shows the race had some depth and you would expect Atlantic Roller to have progressed (despite a longish absence) and a mark of 130 looks OK here.
 
Backing against ENDA BOLGER in a cross country chase at Cheltenham.......short cut to the poor house!

My good thing is at Newcastle tomorrow in the 2.15
DELIGHTFULLY 11-2 has had a near identical prep to when winning this last year. She also comes into this years renewal on the exact same mark as when winning in 2012. She has a liking for the track winning two from four and she will surely go close tomorrow.
 
Oscar Whiskey- I know your not keen oddy-but been watching some of his races- I have always been impressed by his jumping he is very neat and tidy and only has the one F in his record I know going chasing is alot different but he can pick him self up from a mistake and carry on and is a very hard horse. He wasnt quite quick enough to be a top top hurdler but he has speed which will catch alot out in the the chasing 2 2 1/2 mile divison I just cant see him being beat tomorrow!
 
Best of luck Woolly - no bet race for me now with the ground likely to be against TDS, hope OW wins for you and I hope he turns out to be a top class novice chaser - racing needs superstars <ok>
 
One at Cheltenham I quite fancy tomorrow is WARDEN HILL 2.40 @ 14-1. He won a decent looking Ascot hurdle last time out and although the front four finished pretty close the form could be decent. Andy Kelly, fourth that day, has absolutely bolted up since. The handicapper may have underestimated this one and I also think he has a good deal of improvement to come. He is a decent price, even MOG EW value!

Standing Ovation
Renard
The Romford Pele
Warden Hill
Zest For Life
Edmaaj
 
This boy done me a favour last Saturday when winning the big chase at Wincanton and I see no reason to desert him tomorrow, Cheltenham 1.05 STANDING OVATION 6/4 takes a couple of drops in class and I doubt an extra 7lb will stop him after hacking up last week. If something is going to stop him it will be the fences or to many races in a short period of time.

Best of luck all <cheers>
 
OddDog said:
Best of luck Woolly - no bet race for me now with the ground likely to be against TDS, hope OW wins for you and I hope he turns out to be a top class novice chaser - racing needs superstars <ok>
Click to expand...

Thanks Oddy <cheers> I second that totally- need as many superstars as possible the more Sprinter Sacres and Big Bucks the better!
 
Bucks said:
This boy done me a favour last Saturday when winning the big chase at Wincanton and I see no reason to desert him tomorrow, Cheltenham 1.05 STANDING OVATION 6/4 takes a couple of drops in class and I doubt an extra 7lb will stop him after hacking up last week. If something is going to stop him it will be the fences or to many races in a short period of time.

Best of luck all <cheers>
Click to expand...

I do like him to Bucks- but bit worried if he will take to the course! The tight turns and the tiring hill up the homestraight not every horse likes it. But Im hoping he would have galloped them in to a big enough lead just incase he struggles to get up the hill
 
woolcombe-folly007 said:
I do like him to Bucks- but bit worried if he will take to the course! The tight turns and the tiring hill up the homestraight not every horse likes it. But Im hoping he would have galloped them in to a big enough lead just incase he struggles to get up the hill
Click to expand...

Based on Saturday's performance you'd have to back him until he loses IMO - he'll carry my shilling <ok>
 
6/4 in an Amateur riders handicap on a track he has never seen before and ridden by a new jockey! Not good value. He is the likely winner but not for my money at that price!
 
I hear you Stick, but he was so impressive on Saturday that I'll risk the dangers!

TV races
Eastlake
The Romford Pele
Atlantic Roller
Quiscover Fontaine

Won't be able to watch or join in the forum because of the Newmarket trip, so good luck all <ok>
 
Firstly I hope all those off to Newmarket have a great day. I was sorely tempted to join in but the lure of a day out at Cheltenham just shaded it. Both beat the absolute **** out of working. Some nice racing tomorrow and looking forward to seeing the novice chase. No bet but I'd slightly favour Oscar Whiskey in receipt of 5lbs from TDS. For betting purposes I really like the chances of Handazan @ 16s in the 2.40. After this one hosed up at Chepstow the trainer said he'd be much better up in trip. Surprising then that he was turned out again over the same distance and not surprising that he got beat. Tomorrow he gets a trip and looking forward to big run. Trainer in hot form too. In the 1.35 I'm siding with another King horse in Oh Crick. Competed in this race 12 months ago off 14lb higher and have seen enough in his runs since to suggest he still retains some ability. Decent ground should be in his favour. EW @ 20s. Good luck all.
 
I love me some top early season novice races. Taquin Du Seuil for me, bred for this and had an excellent hurdling season. Oscar Whiskeys jumping is going to be the centre of attention but i think Taquin will take very high rank this season and should be a top race.
 
Got to take on the jolly in the first. Probably left with egg on face but I'll have a small speculation on Hunters Lodge. Proven on the track and at this trip and will be staying on up the hill.
 
Standing Ovation by far the likeliest winner but 6/4 is very short. Could be a Wincanton specialist, may not have fully recovered from his win 6 days ago, may not take to Cheltenham and it's an apprentice race.

He can go and win at that price for me.
 
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