3.00 Galway Measured Approval 12/1 A 9lb rise to a mark of 79 for a half length victory LTO (front 2 5L clear) seems a bit harsh but I've always felt that Pat Flynn's 5 year old has had the ability to take off and be a much better animal than his career suggests and from a good draw in stall 3 and on ground that will be no problem for him I'm hopeful for a big run from this son Acclamation. A horse who can sometimes miss the break, Measured Approval sauntered to 2 wins last Autumn (2nd time off a 12lb lower mark) before his form tailed off and after running well enough on a few occasions everything clicked for Measured Approval in a race that was clearly his target (Flynn now won it 3 of last 4 years) when overcoming the widest draw at Ballinrobe to score over this distance under Danny Grant. Dropped in from his horrid berth, Measured Approval made good progress down the outside having been dropped out at the rear of the field and after engaging in a battle with the very game Apache Gold before the top weight mastered him late on to score with a little bit in hand. It's going to take a career best for Measured Approval to land this contest but I definitely feel he has the talent to do so and having gotten his head back in front last time I expect him to be full of confidence. Although this is a much tougher race, Pat Flynn has his horses in great form at the moment and had a couple of 2nds at Galway yesterday and I hope Measured Approval can go one better here today. 4.55 Galway Missunited 9/1 & Hisaabaat 18/1 This looks a top class renewal of the Galway Hurdle and with horrific weather forecast its going to be a massive slog and given that none of the first 5 home in the Galway Plate yesterday carried more than 10-11 I'm concentrating on those at the foot of the handicap. Granted, 2 miles over hurdles isn't the same as 2m6f over fences but a low weight in the likely dire conditions looks key and the two I have come up with are Missunited and Hisaabaat. Looking first at Missunited, this top notch dual purpose mare represents the shrewd Michael Winters who won this last year with Rebel Fitz and he seems to have protected this 6 year olds lovely mark of 134 on what will be her handicap debut. An easy winner at the course over 18f back in September beating the talented mare Zuzka, Missunited landed a pretty decent Grade 3 hurdle back in March beating Twigline in what looks useful form. Although she bombed out in a Grade 1 at Fairyhouse on her final start over hurdles later that month, she has been in fine fettle on the flat finishing 2nd in 3 consecutive Listed contests and although a bit disappointing at Roscommon earlier this month I am sure her trainer will have her spot on for this and judged on her flat/hurdling exploits a mark of 134 seems very fair. Robbie Power takes the ride on Missunited for the first time today and the very testing conditions should pose no problem to her. Another point that could prove crucial is that Missunited is a stout stayer who has won over 1m6f on the flat and that stamina could prove crucial in a race that will clearly take a lot of getting home. With Michael Winters knowing what it takes to win the race, Missunited has clearly been laid out for this and off a lovely racing weight of 10-8 I think she's got a superb chance of winning this having proven course form in the book. I would have been kicking myself for not having backed Hisaabaat if he wins given his claims are so obvious judged on last seasons form and although he has proven a shadow of himself on numerous occasions this season if the 'King of Ballybrit' Dermot Weld has plotted him up and has him back to his best today then I don't think he'll be beaten. Runner up to subsequent Champion Hurdle 3rd Countrywide Flame in the Triumph Hurdle and a Grade 1 winner either side of that at Leopardstown and Punchestown, Hisaabaat showed outstanding form in his juvenile campaign but to say he has been abysmal this year is an understatement. Comprehensively beaten in 4 hurdle outings and a flat race this year, Hisaabaat has looked nothing like the horse he was last year but he has resultantly fallen to a mark of 134 which makes him look ridiculously well handicapped on last seasons form. Despite being so poor this season, Dermot Weld sounded quite bullish on ATR yesterday about his chances and if the legendary trainer can apply the midas touch he could scoot in here with a first time visor. With a definite liking for testing conditions, the very talented Michael Nolan comes across to his homeland for this one ride and takes over a very valuable 3lb to give Hisaabaat a lovely racing weight of just 10-4 and if the Hisaabaat of last year shows up then 18/1 will look a ridiculous price. If he's completely gone off the ball then he'll finish out with the washing here but if Weld has indeed plotted him up for the race specifically and he's back to himself then I don't think Hisaabaat will beaten and at 18/1 I'm definitely willing to take that chance. 5.35 Galway Shalaman 10/1 Bet365 were insane to price up Shalaman at 14/1 and although that price has been clipped in I think they've completely gotten this runner all wrong and 10s is a huge price. Last year Denis Hogan ran the incredibly well handicapped and progressive Inis Meain in this corresponding race last year (now 40lb higher rated) and although that horse bumped into a similarly well handicapped 3 year old in Call Me Bubbles I think Shalaman could have been targeted at this race for some time. Having only made his debut back in March and very lightly raced to date, Shalaman landed a big gamble in the stewards room on his last start and I think there is a lot more to come from him. Having used his first 3 runs to get a mark and after a moderate handicap debut, Shalaman ran with much more enthusiasm on his 2nd start in a handicap when 3rd over a mile at Limerick last month before landing a gamble in the stewards room up to 11f at Killarney a few weeks ago. Under todays pilot Leigh Roche, Shalaman was held up in the rear of the field before making smooth progress towards the business end of the race. Looking like the winner all over, LeighRoche inexplicably tried to go for a gap between horses in the final furlong and although he (luckily) got the race in the stewards room when running on having switched late Shalaman was clearly the best horse in the race. That form was boosted when the 3rd won at Leopardstown off a 2lb higher mark and an 7lb rise to 67 seems fair and is a mark I definitely feel is well within his ability. Although the heavy going will be vastly different to what he faced the last day, he seemed ok on soft ground 2 starts back and a few of his half siblings have form on easy going and I don't think it will be a problem. Leigh Roche takes the ride again this evening and a handy 3lb off his back and having screwed up the ride last time I am sure he'll do everything in his power to ensure victory at a track he rides well. At a track where the draw is so important, Shalaman has bagged a lovely draw in stall 4 and if acting on the likely swamp then I think he'll take an awful lot of beating at a double figure price I did not expect to see available.
Morning all. With 5 places up for grabs with Bet 365 for the Galway hurdle I'm going for an outsider. Dylan Ross has course and distance form and is 33/1 so have had a couple of bob on him. Meanwhile over in sultry sussex i've plumped for red Avenger in the opener and saddlers rock in the goodwood cup. Good lyck everybody.
Not sure it's the wisest decision backing a horse that notoriously finds trouble at Goodwood! Probably the worst track for finding trouble in running! Good luck though, it with a clear run it should win!
grecian mick--- in the 5 30 at Nott i am going against you with Rock on Candy, this horse has been entered up many times over the last few weeks, but withdrawn on account of the fast ground, today its got give, and the same rider, Chris Catlin has been booked each time--always an angle-- oil strike has done nowt wrong--but has yet to show give underfoot suits as well as fast. Beau Mistral has been hinting his time may be soon-- been backed as well -- horse he beat lto --finished 2nd at goodwood the other day(six wives)-- so i shall do a mixer !! with the three and a tricast !
Cheers rudebwoy I will have a look at that. Just looked and Oil Strike only 2/1, nowhere near the forecast 5/1. Will leave this race alone as you're 2 are drawn low and I think that horses drawn high are favoured.
I was going to come onn here and say exactly the same! I was very taken by Caucus at Sandown and conditions will be very similar today. Wild Coco has everything in here favour - Ryan Moore on board Elik the only realistic danger
James Doyle better not get Pythagorean beat again cos im on big style at 4/1, hes a group horse in a handicap and I expect him to show it today. Repeater 33/1 e/w in the Goodwood Cup for me.
Already on THUNDER STRIKE now out to 9/1 but will be on another 3 this afternoon at Goodwood. 3.15 Mister Impatience 33/1. Johnston horse, 2m race and right down the bottom receiving a lot of weight. Can see a place for this one. 4.50 Majestic Moon 10/1. Like Pythagorean who I have been on all races this season. Think he will win but could be same old story with him again today. MM on a hat trick today. 5.25 Silver Alliance 16/1. Only because Shelley Birkett is on this one and not on Xinbama who she has won on the last twice.
He is a decent handicapper Boris but if you think he is a Group horse then we need to send the men in white coats round!
If Hughes was riding I would agree with Pythagorean, but young Doyle isn't in that league at Goodwood and therefore I will let it win without my cash.
Send them round, I might need them if Doyle manages to get him beat again! I reckon he is about 105 -110 class, so hes Group class for me, good enough to run in Group 3s, he was up there with Dundonnell on homework as a 2yo so he ought to be better than a handicapper. Dont forget he had absolutely no chance of winning either of his last two starts, he done well to get as close as he did last time and would have won 3 or 4 lengths with any sort of run, Doyle has had a nightmare. The day he got beat at Newbury as a 2yo I was convinced he had a group engine and I remain convinced.
Goodwood warning: two days on rain-softened ground but forecast for a hot day today equals sticky ground and bookies' benefit. It took until the last race Wednesday but the other brain-dead jockeys finally figured out that the course at Goodwood is riding fastest on the stands' side - yet Richard Hughes still won coming right up the rail on the favourite. Given that he will probably pick up a couple more two-year-old races for his father-in-law (although neither today), the bookies might as well pay out on the Goodwood Top Jock now. The Richmond looks like a good opportunity for Figure Of Speech but given that he hung left last time and got caught close home, Mickael Barzalona may want to get across to the stands' rail and hope for gaps late on. At 6/4 it is too short to get involved. I had expected The Queen's horse to be in the Goodwood Cup but it now looks like a case of finding one to floor Mount Athos. His exaggerated waiting tactics would suit if this is strongly run and the ground is no problem, but I prefer Caucus, who held off Biographer on Eclipse day at Sandown with the third eight lengths back. Whilst I like the look of Majestic Moon in the 4:50, his front running tactics will be difficult to pull off in such a big field as opposed to his two wins in small events; so I may end up just watching him go in at 10/1. Michael Clarke thinks the ex-convicts can still win The Ashes, but he did not say whether that was on the Playstation or the Nintendo. He should get down to Earl's Court and find a bar job.
I think Pythagorean is vulnerable again to trouble in running at a course like Goodwood. I like the look of Majestic Moon each way at 10/1 although wont have a bet. His running style will surely put him in for a top 4 finish?? He s not been out of the first 4 in his life except for finishing 8th of 8th on unsuitably heavy ground. Paul Hanagan takes the ride - he's being utilised when he can be by Fahey - a big plus too.. Im almost talking myself in for an unusual mid week bet here !!! Still discipline rules so waving my no bet flag................
Afternoon all struggling to find anything good lately so small lucky 31 and one ew Missed call 2nd Brown Pete nr Oil strike nr Not rigg 7th Hunting rights The ew I will have a go on has yet to have won on turf but things may be right so I will take a chanceon Rosie lady another I may ew yet to win on turf isyoung Dottie good luck all
Crying out loud - another big cup for Michael Owen Can they lash him to Beechers before the National for our entertainment?
Boom! Wild Coco is a machine! I see Rishi is working up a bit of a sweat on the downs this afternoon lol
Just popped on and backed Pique Sous 12/1 eway in the Hurdle. Hope all is good and the forum are taking the bookie to the cleaners!!
