The Timeform assessment of the race makes reasonable reading not just from the horse form point of view but also the implicitly stated view that the market does not represent any sort of betting value. I expect Mukhadram to try to make the running as it nearly worked last time; however, the pace that he goes at could be crucial. The smart thing to do might be to set a moderate early pace and then quicken it up at the turn for home and try to slip the field. No reason to believe that The Fugue will not improve enormously for her debut effort and she needs to be kept nearer to the pace here as the exaggerated waiting tactics employed in last year’s Nassau may not suit here. If she looks okay in the preliminaries, she could be the one. Al Kazeem is the form pick coming out of Royal Ascot and he certainly will not be stopping up the hill as he tries to cut down the front runners. Whether he has the improvement that may be required to fend off a race fit The Fugue is the focal issue of the race for me. I know I am going to get flak for writing off both the Ballydoyle contenders but they are two talking horses. Declaration Of War collected a moderate Queen Anne after failing as Lockinge favourite. His chances would be greatly helped if the pace is not too strong as a mile may be his best distance. Mars was ante post favourite for The Derby after winning a Dundalk maiden race last year and his three year old career has been nothing but hard luck stories. There are fewer opponents here to get in his way but he is easily glossed over at the odds. Pastorius has some good form in the book, if one is prepared to overlook his miserable showing seven weeks ago in Kranji, but this is basically a case of betting on the trainer’s reported comments that he is now back to his best and the horse’s best rating puts him right in the mix. I do not consider Maxios or Dunaden as reliable yardsticks, however. In conclusion, Al Kazeem is fairly priced at 15/8 but The Fugue at 9/2 looks the deal. Fans of the filly might like to look at the 10/1 available for the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes before 3:50.
Hi QuarterMoon. I was a little surprised that you don't consider Dunaden as a reliable yardstick as I thought his form suggested a model of consistency. EG He's run against St Nicholas Abbey 3 times at level weights, beaten 4 3/4L, 3 3/4L & 2 3/4L. His form with Pastorius & a line through his form with Novelist also looks quite consistent. I'm probably missing something obvious. Can you help ?
That uphill finish certainly helped today. Mars has finally had a race where he can have no excuse. I'm afraid his "unlucky loser" tag has now been lost.
This is why I hate racing. Al Kazeem has now won 5 on the bounce - a G3, a G2 and lately 3 G1s. I haven't backed him in any of those races. He'll now likely go to the Juddmonte at York as a 4/6 fav and I'll lump on him, thinking he is the real deal. And he'll come second to a 14/1 shot. I know, I've turned into a hopeless pessimist.
Perhaps you are right that I am being unfair. His main claim to fame is winning a valuable two mile handicap in Australia, which accounts for most of his career earnings. His best European form is almost exclusively made up of places where he is well beaten by horses that he is simply not good enough to be running against. You are right that if he keeps getting beaten by the same distances that does lend some credence to the form.
You may have hit the nail on the head there, OddDog. Although the old reputation that the Juddmonte used to have for upset results has been somewhat tempered in recent years. Last year’s winner was not too bad. If Al Kazeem goes to the Knavesmire, he may scare off much of the opposition so you will be lucky to see 4/6. I wonder if they will go for a mid-season break and target the Irish Champion Stakes instead with the Arc in mind.
Charlton doesn't call his geese swans but he always liked this colt (see his video on his 2011 3yos if it's still about). It was unfortunate that after winning his 2012 race he was injured. Because of that I think he's been underated. He's had 3 tough races on the trot and I can understand them ducking the KG: a shame but I can understand. He obviously believes he has an Arc horse and the Irish Champion makes sense time-wise. It doesn't look a great year for 3yos and 4yos and although not a great horse he is a very good one.
This does not look a great year for the three year olds at present, as I think that Andre Fabre’s Intello might be the best of them but there is a question mark against whether he will get a mile and a half plus his next intended race is the Prix Jacques Le Marois over a mile at Deauville. In the Arc, I would be on last year’s runner-up Orfevre provided the ground is not bottomless but reports from Japan say that he has suffered a setback so he is not worth the risk ante post. To my mind Al Kazeem should have every chance at Longchamp with the caveat that he does not get drawn out in the next arrondissement!
Considering the Timeform write up I was astonished to read the BHA handicappers view of the race. They said that Al Kazeem had only to repeat his POW form to win in their opinion as no other form stood up. Certainly the way I felt but why was Timeform giving it such a close call? It begins to worry me that when the paymaster is actually also taking the bets....
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So Timeform are on a losing run... I thought it was just me that only managed to pick winners when they did not put any money on them. There was a horse that won at Ayr the other day that had won two or three on the bounce and was well beaten last time out when I backed it; then it goes in at 12/1 when everyone thought that the handicapper had got to it.
