Coral Eclipse Stakes, 6th July

Back in May, it looked like the prospects for this year’s big showpiece at Sandown were good. Now that the five day declarations are out and just eight feature, it is looking like an expensive day in Surrey. Injury means that probably the best older horse, Farhh, will not be there. Annoyingly, the card starts at 13:30 (although Channel 4 do not start until the 14:05) and there are seven races.

With little prospect of any supplementary entries, the winner is one of the following:
Al Kazeem
Camelot
Declaration Of War
Mars
Miblish
Mukhadram
Pastorius
The Fugue

Given that three of these are inmates of Ballydoyle, it seems quite probable that each-way punters need to be burgling the ante post lists if they want to get paid for third place. If Camelot ends up a no-show, he will surely be packed off to stud. If he does line-up, defeat will be his last appearance. The race does look to revolve around the three principals from Royal Ascot, none of whom look any sort of betting proposition. With Mukhadram the only apparent front runner, can he set the race up for himself on a course that does not normally favour such tactics? The weather forecast suggests that the ground ought to be fast on Saturday, notwithstanding the ludicrous watering of the track that will take place to prevent fast ground for fast horses in the summer.

 

The most uninspiring line up i have ever seen.Not a single world class animal amongst them,which is a crying shame because the Eclipse used to be the best 10f turf race in the world....roll on the jumps season

 

I think Mars will win this next year.

This year, I don't know.

 

Is there a likely lineup knocking about?

I went to back Mars with Paddy each way but they we're only offering 1/4 odds 2places.

 

Don't disagree with the comments about the field but if Farhh is the best older horse we are in trouble.

 

Form for older horses in all countries is all over the place. Even the highest rated (in training) Cirrus Des Aigles was beaten 4½L by Novellist last month. Maybe, given 12f on soft going Novellist is the one. Doesn't help with the Eclipse though.

I'm sure this can't be the worst Eclipse field though. I think the stiff course of Sandown will suit the improving Al Kazeem and he is a very worthy favourite. However, if we can have a jockey on Mars who can steer him clear of trouble then he could do it.

 

Hi Ron.
Hope you are keeping well.
I think the Eclipse is a real puzzler this year. I took an EW punt on Pastorius a month ago at 16/1 when connections stated that they were targeting this.
I was initially impressed with Al Kazeem when he beat Camelot but we now know that Camelot is as good as finished. He just mastered Mukhadram in the POW but how good is that form when most people expected the continually disappointing Main Sequence to beat him in his previous race. The Fugue was having his first run of the season when a good finishing third & could be expected to improve but she was hardly a world beater last year and therefor doesn't necessarily frank the form either.
I backed Declaration of War in Queen Anne but, along with Mars, wouldn't be confident at the highest middle distance level.
Like many of the previous posters, this doesn't look like the highest quality renewal to me & therefor I'm surprised to see Pastorius trading at 10/1 currently.
He beat Novelist twice last year & was only 1 length third to Danedream. Danedream had edged out Nathaniel in his previous race with St Nicholas Abbey back in third.
I wonder what price st Nicholas Abbey would have been if it had been entered ?
Pastorius had run every monrh for seven months without a break when finishing fourth to Frankel, Cirrus Des Aigles & Nathaniel in the Champion stakes in October & may have bean past his peak, but those ahead of him that day probably boast better form than anything in Saturday's field.
I'm not hugely confident, but I do think that 10/1 represents sporting value.
Any Commemts/Views ?

 

When I said that Farhh was the best older horse, I was saying that in the context of this race. His easy win in the Lockinge has been franked by the victory of the well beaten Declaration Of War at Royal Ascot. Had Farhh run at Royal Ascot he would have won whichever of the Queen Anne or Prince Of Wales’s he had contested and would be odds-on here.

 

Hi Campo. Fine thanks, and you?

You have put a very good case for ze German. I think I would be happy to just watch this one.

 

Thanks Ron, I'm keeping well.
The form suggests Ze German has a better chance than reflected by his 10/1 odds.
E.G. Al Kazeem beat Dunaden nearly 6 lengths last May when they were both making their seasonal debuts, but was receiving 5 lbs.
Pastorius beat Dunaden 2 lengths at level weights on his seasonal debut where Dunaden may have been advantaged by an earlier run. Dunaden seems to be a reasonably consistent formline as he was then beaten 1 1/2 lengths by Novelist, who, in turn, was beaten twice by Pastorius.
Must have some sort of chance?
Good luck if you decide to play.

 

I think this is slightly better than last year, but that is not saying much because that was the worst Eclipse ive seen. Nothing great around at the minute, Al Kazeem is probably the best older horse about just now followed by Farrh who has improved again this season. Mars has failed to win in a woeful 3yo division although he does at least have potential and I suppose two of his runs where at a trip too short behind Dawn Approach who is a top Group 1 horse, Declaration Of War beat Group 2/3 horses at Ascot the way you would expect a decent Group 1 horse to. The Fugue is a classy filly but she always seems to look unlucky and I suspect she will find 1 or 2 too good again in here. I like Pastorius, id have him 2nd/3rd choice in this race and 10/1 is far too big imo, Maxios let the form down at Ascot but I dont think he showed his best that day as he was beat after 2 furlongs, but Peslier saying he will ride Pastorius for a place is hardly inspiring. I wont underestimate Mukhadram, he is improving and he will be bang there if he runs his race but Al Kazeem ought to be a steering job, looks a fair price too as id have him a shade odds on. I talked myself off him at Ascot but he proved my worries about the track to be well wrong and I dont see any reason to make the mistake again.

 

I've no idea what prompted Peslier to state that he would ride Pastorius for a place ( Tactics or something lost in the translation ?) but I take jockey's racing assessments/predictions/Tips with a huge 'pinch of salt'.
Some think Maxios is best fresh or after a five or six week break, or perhaps he didn't handle the fast ground or take to the course, but he may well have run below par that day, making the rigid interpretation of the formline with Pastorius suspect.
I hope so !

 

The Fugue for me. Already a Gp 1 winner at 3, and thought good enough to have her come back run at Royal Ascot, she can go on from that, reverse form with Al Khazeem on Saturday, and establish herself as Europe's leading middle distance filly following the retirement of Snow Fairy.

 

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Timeform's View

Eclipse Stakes: The Fugue to Eclipse rivals

It's the Eclipse on Saturday and Timeform's Tony McFadden brings you his preview of the race...

It's funny how much can change in 12 months. This time last year Camelot was the unbeaten three-year-old star with a Guineas and two Derby victories to his name; victory in the St Leger, which would secure the elusive Triple Crown, was widely presumed to be a formality. Al Kazeem, on the other hand, was sidelined by a pelvic injury, but, in truth, his absence wasn't especially noteworthy for he had never even competed at the top level.

As we all know, Camelot was beaten in the St Leger and, having undergone Colic surgery over the winter, he has failed to replicate his best this season. In contrast, Al Kazeem has blossomed this term, returning from injury in better shape than ever, winning the Gordon Richards Stakes at Sandown with plenty in hand prior to turning over an odds-on Camelot on his way to securing a first Group 1 success in the Tattersalls Gold Cup.

Not everyone was convinced by Al Kazeem's credentials following success in that four-runner affair - Camelot was sent off as a well-backed favourite to overturn the form at Royal Ascot - but his Prince of Wales's Stakes win, in a race with plenty of depth, confirmed that he is a genuine top-level performer. Al Kazeem deservedly heads the Eclipse market as he bids to register a third Group 1 win within the space of six weeks, while Camelot is not certain to ever race again, his trainer, Aidan O'Brien, fearing that the spark has gone.

Plenty of different reasons have been put forward as to why Camelot has struggled this year - ranging from the effects of colic surgery to he was never 'that' good - but, whatever your view, it is difficult to make a case for him should he be allowed to take his chance, something the Betfair market suggests is increasingly unlikely, incidentally.

Al Kazeem, however, is a certain starter and his claims are obvious: he is a highly-likeable, genuine type that arrives at the top of his game and defeated two of his main rivals, Mukhadram and The Fugue, in the Prince of Wales's Stakes last time. James Doyle, a rising star of the weighing room, did well to overhaul the enterprisingly-ridden Mukhadram at Royal Ascot, looking alive to the danger as Paul Hanagan poached a couple of lengths turning for home, and his tactical awareness earned plenty of plaudits. In truth, Mukhadram was seen to maximum effect on that occasion and it would be a surprise were he capable of reversing the form, even allowing for the fact he is lightly raced for a four-year-old.

The Fugue, who finished a staying-on third at Ascot, was not given a particularly inspired ride, held up too far back as things transpired and left with a hopeless task. These are not just my pocket-talking ramblings, though, as the sectional times taken by Simon Rowlands back up the visual impression that The Fugue shaped better than the bare result.

It is also worth noting that The Fugue was making her seasonal return at Royal Ascot and, though clearly fit enough to do herself justice in such a prestigious race, she was reportedly still in her coat, offering some hope that there may still be some improvement to come. Crucially, that Royal Ascot performance was by no means the only time The Fugue has confirmed herself as a Group 1 filly; she was an ultra-impressive winner of last year's Nassau Stakes and can be considered a shade unlucky not to have won the Oaks and the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf, too.

At current prices, there is certainly a case to be made for stating that The Fugue offers better value than Al Kazeem as, after all, there was only three and a half lengths to separate the pair at Ascot and she wasn't well placed, is entitled to come on for the run and her trainer, John Gosden, has hit a real purple patch of late.

Aidan O'Brien, in addition to Camelot, has also entered Declaration of War and Mars, with the last named of that trio the strongest in the Betfair market. The fact that Mars was actually trading as favourite for the Derby prior to making a winning racecourse debut at Dundalk last July would suggest that he has always been well regarded, and he has created a good impression on the racecourse as well as the gallops.

Understandably, with just that one all-weather maiden under his belt, Mars lacked the experience to make an impact in the 2000 Guineas on his second start, but there was plenty to like about his subsequent efforts in the Derby and St James's Palace Stakes where he encountered trouble on both occasions. Having raced just four times, Mars is clearly still unexposed and open to further improvement, particularly as the 10-furlong trip - one he will be trying for the first time - could well prove to be his optimum.

A further boost for Mars is the weight that he will receive from his elders. In theory, the weight-for-age allowance shouldn't provide any age group with an advantage, but, at this stage of the season and at this distance, the allowance the three-year-olds receive is generous.

Of the others, it is not impossible to make a case for Pastorius at the prices as the German raider only has a few pounds to find with his rivals. He does, however, have to bounce back from a rare poor run in Singapore last time and, on balance, others appear open to greater progress than Mario Hofer's charge.

In summary, Al Kazeem deservedly heads the market for the Eclipse based on his performances this season and is the most likely winner of the race. A worthy but narrow victor at Royal Ascot, it is impossible to be negative about Al Kazeem's prospects, and he is likely to go well, but at [2.7] he doesn't offer any great value against a rival in The Fugue who is likely to be seen to better effect than last time and an intriguing three-year-old participant in Mars. Narrow preference would be for The Fugue, though Mars is a fascinating and feared opponent.

Recommendation:

Back The Fugue to win the Eclipse

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It's a difficult race with only 7 runners nullifying each way options but if the favourite is to be beaten I think Mars is the best value to do it and is the way I'm going to bet.

The Fugue has a chance. So does Declaration of War. At the prices though and with riding arrangements set I'm much happier having Ryan Moore in the saddle on a decent looking 3 year old receiving 11lbs and 8lbs respectively than looking to get the favourite beat on anything that's part of last years Classic crop.

 

Can't see Camelot winning and I would not be surprised if he ends up not running.

 

Where've you been Janabelle? He was pulled out a day or two ago. Wrapped up in his stable for a month off.

 

Helps if I look at the card