My money is already down in Certify. Have her in a double with dawn approach which I put on last year at nice odds .my only reservation is how badly Godolphins 3year olds performed last season This looks alot harder to call than the boys race does .
The fillies classics are always harder to predict, as fillies like women are never straightforward. That's why you rarely get a short priced favourite in the 1000, as its highly unlikely a fillie will consistantly hold her form at such a young age, and of the short ones we have had, the likes of RV, and Maybe, they were turned over. Last years race is a prime example of how unpredictable the form is, that hound Homecoming Queen won by 11 lenghs ffs, and then couldn't win a race afterwards. I have not decided on what horse I fancy, as I feel the ground could be key. At the moment though, if forced for a pick I'd go with Barry Hill's Just The judge
I am already with Just The Judge and I expect her to start favourite. Certify struck me as a small filly and I fear she might not train on. I know the Hills' filly has trained on so I've sided with her.
Dunce alert what is the so called whisper that she should bladder this or something not right despite their bullish claims?
A friend of mine who knows Barry Hills personally, was told that this fillie is up there with the best they've ever had, and that they are very confident that she's going to win. I'm not one for following trainers opinions, so I won't be backing her on those grounds, but I do like the look of her form
Don't know how you got 10s after her effort today, she's 6s best price now. She looked pretty useful to me, and she beat a pretty decent horse in Sky Lantern. Only her 2nd run aswell, so she probably has a fair bit more to come
Which filly should Hughes ride, Maureen or Sky Lantern? I'd still say Sky Lantern, as I feel the Nel Gwyn was a stronger race. She was conceding a penalty to all of them also, so she might get a little closer to Hot Snap in the Guineas. Maureen did look decent today, but she looks more of a sprinter to me, and I'd have my doubts about wether she'll have anything left in the tank come the business end in the Guineas
More chance of the Nell Gwynn throwing up the Oaks winner than the 1000, Hot Snap was considered a potential Oaks filly, the other Abdullah filly in Ireland hasn't had a clear run at it or else Hot Snap wouldn't be running. Don't get me wrong, it was an impressive performance for a number of reasons, one being it was only her second start and she was still green, but she was taken off her feet a bit early and got a dream run up the rail. Whether that was down to immaturity or lack of tactical speed im not sure, but either way it doesn't bode well for a Group 1 mile race in two weeks time. She looks to have a bit of class but it wasn't a great race, Sky Lantern has won a Group 1 but she is no Group 1 filly, and was giving Hot Snap weight, some of the others had decent 2yo form but it looks pretty suspect to me. I'll be very surprised if that form is up to winning a Guineas and while Hot Snap is guaranteed to improve, I don't think we will see the best of her, whatever that is, until she goes 10f+. I don't have a strong opinion on who is going to win this race but Certify was very impressive in the Fillies Mile and I think she is the one to beat, the worry with her is that she wouldn't be the first Godolphin filly not to produce in the this race after a good 2yo season. I wouldn't be too worried about her physique or anything, just the operation and the way they work at this time of the year. I've always liked Just The Judge, lovely filly and the step up to a mile will suit. Moth was seriously impressive in her trial, the bare form is a long way off but well bred fillies from that stable that take a couple of runs to put it together tend to go on improving and you couldn't write her off. I would like to see Certify, Just The Judge and Moth fight it out because they look the only potential Group 1 fillies in the race to me and the hopes of this being anything other than a poor to average renewal lay with them.
Moth produced one of the most impressive runs in Ireland that I have seen for some time. The camera work in Ireland makes a lot of good horses look slow, but there was something special about the way Moth quickened up- swerving out wide and then taking 5 lengths out of them in a flash. AOB was very sweet on her piece of work at the Curragh prior to that so she is very interesting. What she beat Im not sure, but over 1m she would have beaten them 10L plus on that evidence and I would estimate that it bringes her very close to a Group1 offica rating. Is she certain for The Guineas?
Be very surprised if Hot Snap was bound for the Oaks despite a staying pedigree in her distaff line. Pivotal did sire Sariska but there must be huge stamina doubts about Hot Snap given the turn of foot she showed over 7f.
Once I joined a brand new running club down the local park. There were a few of us that joined at once, all from other running clubs. I'd say maybe 8 or 9 in total. We all enjoyed race running, we weren't overly good but we tried. None of us had ever won a race we discovered. There was one girl who really looked the part though. She was the daughter of some local running champion or something and she too joined for our first meet/race. Rather than joining from some pathetic local club like us she was from a well regarded running club in another city. She hadn't done much of note in that club but it had some very good runners. Plus she was a young lass, getting faster and still learning the ropes to be fair. As we set off we all settled down to a pretty stiff pace. After a couple of laps of the park one or two were starting to feel it, 24 stone Carol in particular was only just managing to go with us. By the time we set off on the 4th and final lap we were all gasping for air. All except one of us, the girl. Her face was expressionless and she seemed to be cruising but she was still only 5th in the race! As we headed to the final 600m or so it looked like it was going to be a close finish. Someone would be breaking their duck, perhaps me? But then this girl, Cath, angled wide and skipped clear like the rest of us were in quicksand or something. It was a joy to behold, I've never seen anything like it in my experiences of local running club. Steve, who finished 2nd and is 78 years old hadn't either. Sure enough me and the lads got talking over our all you can eat Chinese that night (turns out we all love a couple of takeaways a week and it's now tradition that we go for food and a few beers after running club) and we said she has to go for the City Park Run championship. Yes it's a few levels up, bringing together winners of all local park running clubs but this girl was special in my experience. It had been only my 3rd go at running club but the winners of the other 2 weren't like her. We knew she couldn't be beat so we entered her and said we thought she should give it a crack. So she did and she was ****ing ****. Moth has beaten nothing in my opinion.
Just what I heard, her final 3f where 11.5s, 11.8s and 13s roughly, so she did quicken between the 3 and the 2 but remember she went slowest up until the point. The horse who finished 4rth also ran roughly 12s between 2 and 1, but clocked about 15s in the final furlong. She obviously did quicken up between the 3 and the 1 but that impression was exaggerated in the final furlong by average horses slowing considerably. The 4rth clocked about 11.7 between the 3 and the 2 so not much different to Hot Snap when she was at her fastest in the race, her ability to keep up the gallop in the final furlong is what one the race impressively, rather than an incredible turn of speed. The fact that that she was run off her feet early suggests the trip was plenty sharp enough for her and I think she wants 10f+.
Probably a question for PN, but has Sariska had any offspring yet? Even though she turned out to be a rogue she did have bundles of talent, beating Midday on all 3 occasions, that she decided to start the race
