That's not the plan so I won't be doing that. Either I get the odds I want to lay or I just go with it as is.
Will have to be a bad Dante cos Telescope is a slow animal, would have thought the Chester Vase would be his prep race. Leger horse but it could be a weak Derby, if they got Kingsbarns there fit then Telescope has no chance of beating him. And ive heard Hillstar is their main Derby horse. Just seen he is entered in a handicap on Craven day off 83 Stonecold jailcase if he runs. Pythagorean has a rating of 78 He has been gelded or else he would have probably won the Derby in a canter, I suspect they will go for a maiden first but my god, that horse has a group 2 engine if they could sort his head out he would make an absolute mockery of 78. If he learned how to race and they ran him in a 1m or 1m2 handicap off 78 he would literally win half the track.
I’ve being saying it for months but in my view Telescope takes this. He looked a potential top notch performer in his 2 races as a juvenile and in Sir Michael the old boy has a chap who knows what it takes to win Epsom’s biggest prize. Of the unraced ones the Aga Khan owned, Alain de Royer Dupre trained Arbelan looks most interesting. His trainer isn’t one to waste money on entry fees and he is a full-brother to a Group 1 winner to boot. I most certainly await Arbelan’s debut with keen interest.
Fascinating thread. The gallops reporters are wasting a lot of electrons on Telescope if he's so slow, but he could easily be. Let's see what Hillstar does today. Also interesting to read "the Master's" words on Pythagorean. He is the first foal swap the Queen made with Khaled Abdulla. He is listed as being bred by Juddmonte but the mare, Hypoteneuse, is I believe still in the Royal Stud and is a full-sister to the Oaks 2nd Flight of Fancy, as well as the decent, but for the Queen indelicately named, Golden Stream. Pythagorean is a first foal by Oasis Dream and there is a yearling full-brother. He was obviously expected a few times last year by Charlton and maybe the cut will make him concentrate on the job.
Do we begin to look at Battle Of Marengo as a very serious contender after Sugar Boy franking the form at Sandown? Thought Galileo Rock looked the type to do best in the Derby from the first 3 home today. He could well be a Leger horse?!
I'd agree Galileo Rock would probably reverse form with the other pair in a strongly run 12 furlong race, though he's not going to have anywhere enough speed to trouble the classier horses in the Derby. Leger? Id be amazed if he's up to G1 company at any trip. Best they can hope for with him, is a few listed and G3 successes over longer trips. Battle of Marengo has obviously had a nice form boost, and the bookies have acted accordingly clipping him into 2nd favourite on odds checker, BP 7/1. I wouldn't want to put anyone off backing him, as he's talented, and AOB winners of that trial are usually serious Derby contenders. I'd wait though until the 2000 Guineas as I don't see Battle Of Marengo's price between now and then changing. Atleast after the Guineas the Derby picture will become a little clearer as most of the big guns in that race have Derby entry's, and the winner will certainly end up Derby favourite
People need to forget about Galileo Rock being anything other than a half decent 2 miler. Eye Of The Storm was the best horse in that race today and he isnt that good.
Joe...So if all 3 were to meet again over 12 furlongs you'd back Eye Of The Storm? Of the 3 of them he was the one struggling the most in the final furlong. Hit the front, and didnt see out the trip. He'd be the one I'd least fancy for Epsom. Even though I think all 3 have very little chance
I wasnt discussing the Derby, or who would win from the race at 12f, just saying Galileo Rock is a decent 2 miler and Eye Of The Storm was the best horse in the race. Today was just one of those strange days, Market Town came to win his race and was beaten by an inferior animal, as was Eye Of The Storm, Smoothtalkinrascal also beaten in the first when clearly the best.
The article is a derby article, and the race in question was a derby trial, so forgive me for making assumptions
Was pretty clear I made a comment about Galileo Rock specifically, I never mentioned the Derby, but if the Derby was a 3 horse race between those from that "trial" then my money would be on Eye Of The Storm. Hes bred to stay all day and will have come on a lot for the run, id say he was more of a 12f horse than the other two.
Not one mention of mars here don't think he will have the speed for the guineas on his second start ! Aidan o brien holds all the derby cards ! Battle of merango mars victory song kingsbarns ruler of the world !
He seems to hold all the cards every year at this stage, but only once in the last 10 years, that time being last year, has he actually delivered. I'm not ruling any of them out, I just wouldn't be jumping to any conclusions that he's got a stranglehold on this years Derby, as there's plenty of good horses, that have slipped under the radar so far. Andre Fabre has a nice colt called Ocovango who's unbeaten in 2 starts, who he intends to run at Epsom. Whilst Dawn Approach after he destroys them in the Guineas, will no doubt go for the Derby, despite stamina concerns, which he wouldnt be the first to overcome. Tornado could be a strong Derby candidate aswell, looking at his pedigree
Although there is a lot to like about Toronado's pedigree I don't see it as certain that he'll stay 12f. You certainly can't crib at his sire on breeding grounds and racing record but it is surprising that High Chaparral has seemed to be more successful overseas than in Europe. In this part of the World (Asia) he is seen as a wonderful sire of 8-9f horses. However his pedigree and the ability of his progeny to get 12f should not be a question here. The only question has to be has he stamped his stock with his class? His female tail line is similarly attractive. Going back 3 generations to Such Style you are back amongst one of the finest studs ever seen in the British Isles. This mare is a half-sister to the Oaks third, Britannia's Rule, bred and owned by Brook Holiday. Their dam is the Relko filly Regal Lady who just happens to be a half-sister to the wonderful Vaguely Noble. So there should be no worries there in terms of stamina and there should be no worries in terms of class. The problem for me arises when you look at the grand-sire and great grand-sire. Always Fair is a fast horse and sires fast animals. He was a 6f-8f winning horse and his wins included the Coventry Stakes and Prix Quincey. If you gave him an optimum distance you'd have to say it was about 7f. Not a problem on its own but when bred to Such Style he got a fair filly in Wedding Gift who seemed best at 8f. She in turn was sent to Grand Slam, who as a 2yo won over 8f and who as a 3yo won over 9f. But he ended his career being placed in the Breeder's Cup Sprint, so must have been considered a fast horse. It is likely he won at his limit when winning at 9f. Both he and Always Fair hardly scream class at you though, even though pedigree-wise they have eyecatching names like Danzig and Gone West in the mix. The mare of Toronado gives you few clues as there is little to say about her produce so far (Toronado seems to be her fourth foal to race). She herself did win twice from 11 starts. Often the Derby is won by a horse who seems to have 10f written all over him. Toronado seems to fit that bill. But my worry would be that in the Derby he may find that last furlong a bit tough. I'd love to see Hannon train a Derby winner though,and I'm just voicing some concerns.
Does Dawn Approach just have to turn up on derby day then guy's and where does that leave Toronado? Would it appear Van DeNeer will be the Derby hope for them now? Something looked amiss with Toronado to me today.
I was thinking Van Der Neer for the Derby after seeing him stay on for 3rd today but on breeding you'd have to say he'd have no chance of staying - most of Dutch Art's progeny has excelled at 7 or 8 furlongs, although he does now have a few NH runners to his name. For what it's worth I think Toronado won a weak Craven and got found out at the highest level today. The 2nd today paid a huge compliment to the Andre Fabre horse though - would love to see him come over to Epsom.
I'd say it was very difficult to say whether Dawn Approach will stay 12f. First of all New Approach is a first season sire. Secondly the damsire Phone Trick has seemed a sire of 8.5f horses at best. All to play for I'd say. Roll on the Derby trials.
I dont think Dawn Approach will stay, I think its a mistake to miss the Irish Guineas with a proven Group 1 miler to take a chance at the Derby with a doubtful stayer, especially as its the only Irish Classic Bolger hasnt won yet, I was convinced he would be going there. Hes obviously the Champion 3yo and his class might get him away with it in the Derby, might! but he is not a 1m4 horse in a million years, he is a miler who will stay 1m2 easily. Bolger always said he thought he was a top miler, he should go with his gut, he still owns 49% of the horse and SM should leave it to him. Its pretty obvious that SM is more keen on the Derby than Bolger. I would go to the Irish Guineas, then the St James Palace, then step him up to 1m2 against the older horses and aim at the Champion Stakes. When was the last time a Coventry winner won the Derby? Mill Reef? Hes good but hes not Mill Reef.
