5.00 Chepstow
Shammick Boy 12/1
If putting a line through his last run in the Imperial Cup on nearly unraceable ground in the Imperial cup that he would have hated, Victor Dartnall's Shammick Boy looked a progressive horse and with the handicapper dropping him (in my opinion crazily) 4lb for his last run to a mark of 129 I think he has a super chance of winning this. A horse who looked to be going places when winning a couple of Novice Hurdles in early 2011, this 8 year old was very poor in the 2011-2012 for whatever reason but he has come back to form in a big way and looks to be improving despite his age with a wind operation looking to have worked wonders . Reasonably lightly raced, Shammick Boy put an average seasonal reappearance run behind him with a good 4th at Taunton at the end of December in a race won by the highly progressive Home Run in a race that has worked out very well off a mark of 120. Dropped 1lb for that run, Shammick Boy was very, very unlucky at the start of February when getting caught on the line at Wetherby over 2m to go down by a short head to Billy Twyford. Under top weight, Shammick Boy was settled in midfield and took up the running at 2 out and was about 3L clear jumping the last where he made a bad mistake and he was agonisingly reeled in late on and headed at the post. If not for that mistake, he would have definitely won but that race has worked out very well. The winner Billy Twiford was a comprehensive winner on his only start in a better race off a 7lb higher mark whilst the 3rd Renoyr ran into a Brian Ellison gamble when finishing 2nd to Yesyoucan off a 3lb higher mark on his most recent outing. Additionally, the 4th has run two really good races in defeat (including in a much better race) to solidify the form and it was a really good effort. Raised 6lb to a mark of 125, Shammick Boy gained a deserving victory at Chepstow over 2m a couple of weeks later with a very comfortable 2.5L success. Settled at the rear of the field, Shammick Boy under today's jockey Jack Doyle made a bad mistake at the 4th flight but came into the home straight travelling comfortably. Very slightly coaxed along, Shammick Boy hit the front approaching the final flight and despite making a meal of the last he only had to be gently nudged out as he extended on to score with an awful lot in hand for what was his first victory in nearly 16 months.Again, the form of that race has worked out very strongly in what was a rather taking win. The 3rd All Annalena scored by 8L on her only outing since when eased in grade off the same mark whilst the 5th home Landscape looked the most likely winner of a really decent race at Sandown when falling at the last off a 1lb lower mark and for Shammick Boy to win with such ease clearly demonstrated that he was in good form and improving.
Understandably raised 8lb to a mark of 133, Shammick Boy's last effort came in dreadful conditions at Sandown in the Imperial Cup where he never really went a yard but he wasn't given an overly hard race. Dartnall posted on his website after this run that "we have identified his problem" which seems to indicate he wasn't 100% right for that run. Regardless, I'm quite willing to put a line through it as conditions were so bad. I have no idea what the handicapper was thinking as he dropped him 4lb for that run and he is now only 4lb above the mark he was a pretty easy winner just two starts ago. However, I am not complaining and I am sure the Dartnall yard feel similarly! An interesting thing to note is that, prior to running in the Imperial Cup, Victor Dartnall had posted on his website that if he ran well at Sandown he would run in the Martin Pipe Conditional Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival and although his poor run meant he didn't take that route I think it says a lot about what they think of him. Returning to the course of his latest victory, Shammick Boy is stepped up to 2m4f and I think this could bring about further improvement in him as he has shaped like he would get further and his breeding suggests he'll get it no problem. Jack Doyle returns to the saddle having partnered him to his most recent success and the pair clearly get on very well. This is Victor Dartnall's only runner of the day at a track where he has a 19% strike rate and he has his horses absolutely flying at the moment which is tremendous to see. Of the dangers, favourite Araldur representing the in form Alan King yard never seems to run a bad race but he's sliding up the handicap for a string of excellent effort and I feel Shammick Boy looks a better handicapped horse. I am quite wary of the danger of Paul Nicholls handicapped debutant Whisky Yankee who has only had 2 starts over hurdles and could be anything but I'm far happier to stick with a horse with proven form in handicaps. If ignoring his last run, Shammick Boy looked to be an upwardly mobile sort and with the handicappers decision to drop his rating he is now only 4lb above the comfortable win he recorded at the course just two starts ago and based on the ease of that success I'd be very surprised if he isn't back on a winnable mark. At a track where course form is very important, I'm pleased to see Shammick Boy returned to a venue where he clearly goes well at and even if the overnight rain arrives I have no issues with the conditions. With Victor Dartnall's horses flying at present, if the Devon based trainer has gotten this 8 year old back on track then I think he is going to take an awful lot of beating and 12/1 is a much bigger price than I was expecting to see.
but handicapper has given him a massive chance by (insanely) dropping him 4lb
