Who goes down?

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TheSecondStain said:
When West Ham were riding high, earlier in the season, and Saints were shell-shocked at the bottom, I replied to Trixter, who had come on here, giving it plenty, that I wouldn't be surprised to see West Ham make a slow, but steady, slide down the table, and possibly finish below Saints, in the end. I believe he retorted with some sort of you must be joking quip. But it's entirely possible. We're much closer to them now, and we've learned from our baptism of fire. They won't go down though and neither will we.
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Aye but we've just ended our nightmare run (that will return later on in the season) and your one is just about to start, I think we will open the gap up again only for it to close down again in the last 10 games of the season. I think Reading, Wigan, QPR and Villa will form the relegation dogfight right down to the last few games of the season with West Ham, Southampton, Norwich Fulham , Newcastle and Sunderland reaching safety with 10-5 games still to go.
Newcastle are like us, in a poor run of form but when key players return I back the both of us to pick up form.
I think Southampton will need to go on a good run at the end but your fixture list is kind at the end of the season (if its needed).
Norwich and Sunderland will keep a 5-10 point gap over the relegation spots.
Fulham my pick to shoot down the table but stay up.
 
Bzzz said:
Aye but we've just ended our nightmare run (that will return later on in the season) and your one is just about to start, I think we will open the gap up again only for it to close down again in the last 10 games of the season. I think Reading, Wigan, QPR and Villa will form the relegation dogfight right down to the last few games of the season with West Ham, Southampton, Norwich Fulham , Newcastle and Sunderland reaching safety with 10-5 games still to go.
Newcastle are like us, in a poor run of form but when key players return I back the both of us to pick up form.
I think Southampton will need to go on a good run at the end but your fixture list is kind at the end of the season (if its needed).
Norwich and Sunderland will keep a 5-10 point gap over the relegation spots.
Fulham my pick to shoot down the table but stay up.
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Agreed across the board, except I think we'll probably (hopefully?) be safe with 2-3 games left rather than 10-5. And I think Newcastle or Sunderland could get dragged right into it and it could be closer for them too.
 
I honestly can't see QPR going down. As I said earlier, they are currently the best organised team amongst those fighting relegation and the transfer window will see Redknapp add quality to the squad. By time the season has finished, I would not be surprised if they were significantly clear given their ability to grind out results against some of the league's best clubs. If you read the QPR board, it's quite staggering how confident they are that they won't do down. Redknapp has a record of achieving the impossible n these situations and I think Tony Fernandes is already lively to open the cheque book in to buy some quality. I'm surprised that there are still people here who think they have no hope.
 
Ian Thumwood said:
I honestly can't see QPR going down. As I said earlier, they are currently the best organised team amongst those fighting relegation and the transfer window will see Redknapp add quality to the squad. By time the season has finished, I would not be surprised if they were significantly clear given their ability to grind out results against some of the league's best clubs. If you read the QPR board, it's quite staggering how confident they are that they won't do down. Redknapp has a record of achieving the impossible n these situations and I think Tony Fernandes is already lively to open the cheque book in to buy some quality. I'm surprised that there are still people here who think they have no hope.
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It's equally as surprising that you "can't see" it. They have a good chance of surviving, but I'd say there's also a good chance they'll go down. They're not the only team near the bottom who might rally, and right now they're bottom of the league.
 
Ian Thumwood said:
If you read the QPR board, it's quite staggering how confident they are that they won't do down.
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They certainly weren't staggeringly confident three results ago. As it turns out, a couple good results are good for morale; if they lose to West Ham and City, it's a good bet that they won't be as confident thereafter.

As for Redknapp's miracle-making, they have 10 points in 9 games with him. Better than 4 in 13, but not exactly form that puts them on a sure path to safety, given the hole that they have to dig out from.
 
Joe

I can't see either Reading or Villa getting on a run. The third place will most likely be taken by either Wigan or Saints and , even allowing for bias, I think that there is probably a 75% chance that it will be Wigan. Wigan's luck has to run out somewhen, I feel. As I said earlier, I can also see the likes of West Ham being drawn in and Newcastle won't markedly improve either. Reading were fortunate yesterday and Villa are a forlorn hope. Saints seem to get better as the weeks progress by the injuries worry me a bit as it seems to be taking a toll of our most significant players.

Cheers

Ian
 
Ian Thumwood said:
Joe

I can't see either Reading or Villa getting on a run. The third place will most likely be taken by either Wigan or Saints and , even allowing for bias, I think that there is probably a 75% chance that it will be Wigan. Wigan's luck has to run out somewhen, I feel. As I said earlier, I can also see the likes of West Ham being drawn in and Newcastle won't markedly improve either. Reading were fortunate yesterday and Villa are a forlorn hope. Saints seem to get better as the weeks progress by the injuries worry me a bit as it seems to be taking a toll of our most significant players.

Cheers

Ian
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I certainly agree that Reading and Villa look hopeless right now (though Reading did get a surprise win yesterday), but things can change quickly. QPR could lose their next couple of games and suddenly look very hopeless again.
 
Joe Steinberg said:
I certainly agree that Reading and Villa look hopeless right now (though Reading did get a surprise win yesterday), but things can change quickly. QPR could lose their next couple of games and suddenly look very hopeless again.
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And if not for the four points they picked up, they would be entirely hopeless already...even now, they're still up against it. As it stands, they need to tally 1.44 points/game (the pace Liverpool is on) just to get to the possibly-safe threshold of 37 points. Had they lost to Chelsea and Spurs, it would be 1.69/game, a pace comparable to Chelsea of last year. No team that needs to transform from five-points-from-safety to Europa-league-quality can be considered odds-on to survive the drop.
 
What's with all this Harry Houdini bollocks anyway? Redkrapp gets a few mercenaries in on loan (like he did with us, remember) and suddenly QPR turn everything around after struggling for over a year? Don't think so.
 
Schad

I would be curious to know what level of points / match Redknapp required when he was at Portsmouth? I was working in Emsworth at the time and was convinced that Pompey would get relegated and can recall the grief I got from Pompey fans I worked with at the time. Can't believe that the odds were much better.

Redknapp is one of those managers who I really don't like but I think he has sufficient contacts within the game and sufficient a reputation to push open doors that would not be available to many other managers. I know it seems unrealistic that they will survive but the commentary of yesterday's game was extremely complimentary of QPR. Hopefully he arrived at Loftus Road a month too late. I don't think that you can argue that the team is starting to turn around from the horro show that Mark Hughes conjured up.
 
We are bound to slide a bit over the next few weeks, but if we keep above the dotted line or at least close then once we are through the tough next month or so we can hopefully push on! Yet it is unfortunate we are playing the lower sides near the end of the season when strange results are thrown up.
 
Ian Thumwood said:
Schad

I would be curious to know what level of points / match Redknapp required when he was at Portsmouth? I was working in Emsworth at the time and was convinced that Pompey would get relegated and can recall the grief I got from Pompey fans I worked with at the time. Can't believe that the odds were much better.

Redknapp is one of those managers who I really don't like but I think he has sufficient contacts within the game and sufficient a reputation to push open doors that would not be available to many other managers. I know it seems unrealistic that they will survive but the commentary of yesterday's game was extremely complimentary of QPR. Hopefully he arrived at Loftus Road a month too late. I don't think that you can argue that the team is starting to turn around from the horro show that Mark Hughes conjured up.
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Which is what makes survival possible. It by no means makes them unlikely to be relegated.
 
It took us a while to get out of the bottom three because other teams earned points as well. We need our better GD. Both Reading and QPR have an uphill battle to get out of this. Numerically not impossible, but I doubt it.
 
I guess the reason why I fear for us so much is because I can't confidently find a third team to go down. I'm confident that Reading will go down, and unless Villa sign two or three players in key positions this month then I cannot see them suriving either.

But I'm not confident of QPR going down (experienced players, some of whom are half decent, and will surely add to that this month), I'm not confident of Wigan going down (like us in the 90s, them seem to know how to get over the line in the end), I'm not confident of Newcastle going down (they have to players to keep them up, should they avoid injuries and find their form), and I'm not confident that the likes of Sunderland and Norwich can be caught up (only need three more wins each to survive most likely).
 
Curbishley was on Sky earlier...talked the most sense I have heard from a pundit for a long time. Very even handed. He thought anyone up to West Ham could get sucked in. He said advantage of teams like us and Reading is that even if we lose, the players come in eager for the next game, whereas players in established teams can get down and lose hope Mentioned how Saints had turned things round after a bad start. Said Redknapp had a difficult job and depends on who he can get in. Curbishley said that Harry had struggled to attract players at Southampton because we insisted that any players brought in had a relegation clause in the contract, whereas it didn't happen at Portsmouth. Sensible move on our part. Wonder which option QPR will go for.
 
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