Hello all, I wanted to see if doing a thread would improve my current form!! (not likely I know) Anyway, racing from Taunton, Wolverhampton and Kempton Park. Nap = Tornado In Milan, a horse who has shown greenness in his last two runs over hurdles and now drops down in trip on his handicap debut. He was a useful horse in bumpers, winning on his debut for the Evan Williams yard after his switch from Ireland. He then ran a good race under a penalty at Sedgefield (lost action according to Paul Maloney), before embarking on a hurdling career. He started with a very good effort at Worcester in May, dictating the pace (which he has done on all three hurdle runs) before finding one too good in the Hobbs trained Reste Gosse. Interestingly Tornado In Milan looked very green in the race, running around at his hurdles and pulling quite hard, other traits that have been seen in his other runs over hurdles. He then had a break before coming back at Chepstow in October, again showing a good deal of pace before failing to get home due to his early eagerness. He jumped fairly well that day and was given an easy time when the race was lost, and showed to me that he could be better than the bare result. Once again he looked green and pulled hard early in the race. He also ran very wide on one of the bends, losing a good amount of ground in the process. Finally we got to see him back at Chepstow on heavy ground, another race in which he took a keen hold and ran around a bit at his hurdles. He travelled strongly when given his head and he just failed to get home on the heavy ground, fading late in the day to finish 5th beaten 12 lengths by Romford Pele (useful horse). He now goes handicapping off a mark of 114, which I think is a very fair mark on his form and the drop in trip and experience from his first three hurdle races should stand him in good stead against a field that contains a few unexposed sorts and a few old timers. 9/2 Bet365 (4/1 offer race and also BOG)
Taunton 2.10 Cool George. Gonna give this one another chance tomorrow. Seemingly blew up on comeback run. Now back in trip and should strip fitter. No price yet but with many of the leading trainers represented I should get a decent price.
Back at work tomorrow so just having a Lucky 15 tonight (can't place a bet from work). No idea on prices for these so just small stakes: 1.10 Taunton - Best Boy Barney - has been highly tried on his 2 hurdle starts to date, finishing 7th in a hot Chepstow contest won by The Romford Pele and then 3rd behind 2 Henderson horses, Chatterbox and My Tent Or Yours, at Newbury. Despite the presence of the Nicholls horse at the bottom, I don't think this is anywhere near as tough and Jeremy Scott's gelding can gain a deserved success. 2.10 Taunton - Cool George. Like Chaninbar I'm prepared to give him another chance here. His first run over hurdles was too bad to be true and I'm sure Mme Du Plessis will have spent plenty of time schooling him since then. His excellent bumper win remains fresh in the memory and I hope he can get into a nice rhythm here and go close at a price. 3.10 Taunton - Buckie Boy - Seems to either win or run a shocker but this seems about his level and 110 is a mark he can win off. Has also previously won after a break so prepared to take a chance on him putting it all in here. 3.40 Taunton - Bellflower Boy - Dr Newland is one of the shrewdest around at placing his horses and Bellflower Boy runs here off a chase mark of 116 with Christopher Ward taking off 7. In April he finished 2nd in the Durham National off 122 before running a tremendous 3rd in a Pertemps Qualifier hurdle off a rating of 137 at Aintree. He was admittedly disappointing off 118 last time but I'm willing to put that down to his mistake at the first and give him another chance here. Small stakes e/w Lucky 15 for interest on what will be a depressing first day back in the office ......................... Best of luck to all having a punt
I too like Bellflower Boy with odddog and I think the favourite looks distinctly beatable but I am, probably wrongly, passing him over in favour of BALLYEGAN 9-1 who I think will go much better with his favourite pilot back on board tomorrow. he has dropped to a mark that he has gone close off in the past and I think he looks a bit of value. In the 3.10 I am taking a massive chance on PRET A THOU 25-1 who is dropped to a mark that he would waltz in off if he recaptured his best form!
Just watched his last race Nass, and that of the main danger (imo) Extremely So. If I was having £20 on Tornado In Milan at 11/2 (still available) I think a £6 on Extremely So at 100/30 (available now) to cover the stakes could be prudent.
I have doubts about Extremely So, I think she ran as well as she did last time because of the bottomless ground and that slowed others down. I think the main danger could come from the top two in the handicap, but feel that my selection can draw the sting out of the field if given a positive ride (Maloney has looked after him so far)
Extremely So is that short in the market because of his proximity to Home Run obviously. Had he got that close to Home Run 5 weeks ago then you would really have to take him seriously but not so much after that horse has climbed so high in the weights.He is top rated by Timeform but not for me.
According to Timeform Nass, the going is heavy at Taunton. However I see that ATR and RP have it as soft (heavy in places). It won't be the first time Timeform have got the going wrong and ****ed up my logic. I only ruled out Scoter Fontaine and Scoter Fontaine due to heavy ground. So, if any of those 4 win I won't be celebrating if the going is soft because I would have left the race alone. If it turns heavy then I'm back to my original post. Incidentally Tornado In Milan best priced 5/1 now (4/1 with Lad)
TAUNTON - Jump (Updated:06/01/2013 at 07:35:51) Going Soft, Heavy in places (BHA is about only site I take as nearly gospel) With another dry day I expect it to be better than that too.
Evening guys, I can't pick no winners at the moment so one that I put up for tomorrow certainly has no chance but I'm gonna put a few quid on anyhow as I think he could place at a price. The horse in question is QEETHAARA in the first at Kempton. Looking at his form, like mine out of sorts he won this race last year at 40/1 whilst out of form but then won a couple and placed on a few occasions after at Kempton over tomorrow's distance of a mile. Like I say probably come last but for those reasons must be worth a few quid. Don't know any price yet, but what do you guys think?
Won this race off a mark of 58 last year with a 3lb claimer up. Runs off 62 tomorrow with a 5lb claimer on board. Was similarly "out of form" when he won this last year, 16-1 this time round and with his liking for the track you can certainly give him a chance!
Cheers Stick, I was hoping he would be bigger, so I will wait for the drift tomorrow and put me few quid on. Another one I like is Easydoesit in the 4.20 Wolves. Been unlucky in its last couple of races and is weighted to reverse the form with Scribe. Probably a win bet.
3.40 Taunton Kellystown Lad 7/1 Although Bennys Mist deserves his place at the head of the market after a fine 5th in a better race than this that I have earmarked as one to follow strongly as I think its going to throw up a bunch of multiple winners (3 of the 4 in front of him have already won since) but I do think Tom George's 10 year old looks a very interesting individual now returned to fences and I think he's going to run a very big race off a mark of 113. A horse who looked to have a very big future under rules when winning his last 3 Point To Points back in 2009, Kellystown Lad joined Ferdy Murphy where he was very often in and out of form for the duration of his career both over hurdles and fences. After a slow enough start of hurdles, he landed what has turned out to be a poor maiden in fine style in December 2009 and he then showed some improved form when finishing ahead of Mac Aeda and runner up to Gilbarry in separate Novice Hurdles in the Spring of 2010 and both those Malcolm Jefferson horses have turned out to be very talented horses. Following a summer break, Kellystown Lad made a moderate chasing debut for Ferdy Murphy in October 2010 but he really stepped up from that effort and seemed to be a chaser going places on his next 2 starts. A month later at Carlisle he ran a really nice race over an inadequate 2m on heavy ground where he flashed home to finish a 1L beaten 2nd despite pulling for much of the race. That day he finished in front of the peak 134 rated chaser Mohayer and it was a really nice effort. Later that month he improved upon that effort when stepped up to 2m4f at Sedgefield when running out an impressive winner who was value for more than his 2.75L margin of victory. The 3rd Chamirey was also a 134 rated chaser at his peak and Kellystown Lad comfortably disposed of that rival. Although he seemed to have a very promising chasing career in front of him, it was pretty much all down hill from there as he never once reached the frame in his 8 final starts for Ferdy Murphy over fences between January 2011 and March 2012 and with his career seemingly derailed he joined Tom George this Autumn and he certainly has seemed a revitalised character when running two very good 3rds when beaten by single figure lengths in November when reverted to hurdles off a mark of 113. That is the mark he returns to over fences and based on the form of his win and 2nd for Ferdy Murphy then I think he certainly looks on a good mark if retaining his ability over the larger obstacles. I definitely believe that he is a better chaser than a hurdler so his recent return to form for his new trainer is a sign for significant optimism. Although now 10 and there is certainly an argument that he isn't the same horse as he was, he definitely isn't over the hill and a reproduction of anywhere near those two efforts in late 2010 should see him very hard to beat off his current mark. Tom George is in absolutely fantastic form at present with 31% of his runners in the past two weeks winning and this represents his only runner of the day - at a track where he has a 23% strike rate with his chasers. Young claimer Gerald Quinn - who I have been rather impressed with - takes the ride and a very handy 7lb off and I feel he is well worth his claim. Although it is a slight concern that Quinn is 1-33 over fences, his only win came at Taunton and is 2-2 at the course so he clearly rides the track very well and this represents his only ride of the day. Appearing a rejuvenated character for his bang in form trainer, I certainly feel that Kellystown Lad has a lot more to offer over fences off a mark of 113 and if rediscovering his early chasing form then I fancy Kellystown Lad to run a very big race which hopefully see him dispose of a tough opponent in Bennys Mist.
1.25 Kempton: TRAVELLING 14/1 In a nutshell, this horse has dropped 11lb in the handicap since being harshly assessed in his maiden win (if we include the 3lb claim). Ryan Clark is a decent enough apprentice compared to his opponents today and the horse has shown glimpses of solid form from higher marks. This represents an excellent opportunity to go close.
Morning, troops. Nothing for me today but it will be interesting to see how the horse named after me, and what a lovely name for a racehorse as well, does in the card commencer across the county line at Taunton – where dey dalk a bit dike dat. Meanwhile, I see that the ‘Pricewise Festival prediction game’ can now start up again as he begins his portfolio tomorrow by looking at the Cheltenham Gold Cup. I would have thought he’d highlight either Sir Des Champs (at 7’s) or First Lieutenant (at 14’s) but any great brain got an alternative viewpoint???
