Morning Lads, The board seems to be missing a daily thread for today so here it is. Usual lucky e/w 15 and e/w accy for me today all at Newbury. 12:30 Cropley 25/1 1:30 Mallusk 16/1 2:40 Curtain Razer 10/1 3:45 Bygones Sovereign 7/1
Good morning and a happy St Andrews day for all the jocks around the world. It's a bit crisp so no better excuse for you all to take a wee dram!!!!!!!!!!!!! I shall be keeping an eye on the Newbury competition and looking for some useful info. Cant pick a winner to save my life but was lucky with a couple of goalscorers during the week. Good luck to all who play today.
My Newbury through the card selections are: Hectors chance ( in honour of King Kevin, DCFC 70's), Glorious Twelvth, Double Dash, as money is down! Dynaste would hate to see it get beat as so many of you have napped it, Curtain Razor Hector's choice and Bygones Sovereign . Small e/w doubles and trebles to view with interest.
Morning chaps Shame Newbury isn't on the box, but have done a few small bets with Stan so I can watch the stream. I'm rather sweet on the chances of Stow in the 2-40 hurdle. He cruised up to take up the running before the last flight from Le Beau Bai last time out and it seemed to be a question of how far would he win by. However, it was his his first run since Feb and he quickly ran out of steam, finishing 9.5 lengths behind a very game winner. He isn't weighted to reverse placings with Le Beau Bai, (well he IS if you take a 10lb claim into account) and there was a lot to like about the winner's run, but, for me, Le Beau Bai is a better chaser than hurdler and with that run under his belt I can see a fitter Stow putting his rivals to the sword. It's an open race but at 12-1 I feel that Stow is a good ew bet.
I had this wrote out about Double Dash but forgot about it and now the price is gone. Far too short to back him now but will be interesting to see if George Baker was being truthful! 1.30 Newbury Double Dash Before you back this, I have e-mailed George Baker and he said that he will definitely need the run on the back of a 650 day absence but I think he looks so well handicapped that he could saunter this (that and Baker may be trying to protect the price for connections) I have been waiting a long time for George Baker's Double Dash to come out and I think this 8 year old looks potentially thrown in off a mark of 109 compared to his chasing exploits to date. A bumper winner as a 5 year old, Double Dash has been the only horse Baker has trained to go the Cheltenham Festival (Champion Bumper - well beaten) so I think that tells you an awful lot about what Baker thinks of him. After a couple of hurdle runs, Double Dash won on his handicap debut in that sphere off a mark of 110 in fine fashion by 13L and purely based on his hurdling form his chasing mark looks potentially very lenient. However, his first 2 chases read very, very well and he is a horse I will be following all season regardless of how he runs tomorrow. After two more runs in handicap hurdles when disappointing, Double Dash made a lovely chasing debut on the back of 6 month absence back in October 2010 when finishing an excellent 1.25L behind Fruity O'Rooney. Fruity O'Rooney, who was also making his chasing debut, is now rated 145 in that sphere so that rates as very strong form. This now 8 year olds 2nd chasing start in November 2010 reads just as well as he finished as staying on 9L beaten 2nd behind the now 142 rated chaser Rebel Du Maquis (receiving 7lb) as he finished 10L clear of the 128 rated Lake Legend and a further 16L clear of the 136 rated Anquetta as he beat those rivals off level weights. He had one start after this when disappointing on handicap debut off a mark of 117 but considering that was his last run before his absence then I think something may have been wrong with him. Based on his 2 runs in a Beginners and Novice chase then I think his mark of 109 looks potentially extremely lenient and he could be chucked in by more than a stone. I've trawled through George Baker's blog archive and they seem to rate him an awful lot but they also mention that he has a lot of quirks (which Baker re-emphasised in his e-mail to me). On the back of his 650 day absence he could easily need a run or two to get his fitness back up but his excellent chasing debut came on the back of a 6 month absence so its not as if its impossible that he can defy this very lengthy absence. I do think its very interesting that they're running him in a chase first time back when he could easily have been given a run over hurdles and there is just this niggling doubt in my mind that he'll be ready. Trainer George Baker couldn't be in any better form right now as he is operating on a 38% strike rate on the flat this month whilst his last runner in this code was also successful earlier this month. He shouldn't find conditions any issue given that he won his handicap hurdle debut on heavy ground and the 2m2.5f trip should be fine for him as well. In this Conditional Jockey's race, Trevor Whelan (who rode Baker's last winner) takes the ride and he is one of the better pilots in this Class 3 contest. If his ability reads as good as his form then he looks on a ridiculously lenient handicap mark of 109 and although he has a 650 day absence to defy and I have been told he will need the run I think he's worth a bet because he could absolutely annihilate this field if fit and ready to go. Most definitely a horse to watch in the market
Morning all 2.40 Newbury - STOW @12/1 5.55 Wolv - ADVANCED @ 12/1 Both well handicapped on previous form and would hold solid e/w chances Good luck!
I had a good day yesterday at Newbury so have some money to go to war with. Our Bomber Harris let me down for a lot of money yesterday. Had a one pound accy on him, african gold, lyvius, harry topper and oscar rock. Ah well. Luckily I backed some of the others in singles so made up for it a little. 1.30 Newbury - Back Bob Back 8/1 BOG. Looked desparately in need of the run last time at Chepstow, has ran twice at Newbury, finishing 1st and 2nd. The ground won't be an issue and Tom George has his string going well at present. Gerald Quinn taking off 8lbs shoud be enough to see him there or there abouts. 2.05 Newbury - Theatre Guide 8/1 BOG. Was impressive on his first start over fences handing Hinterland an 11 length beating when giving him 8lbs. Up in trip here which is a bit of a worry as all of his winning was over 2 miles. Was running on well last time though. Again the soft ground won't be a problem and chance taken to turn over the favourite here. 2.40 Newbury - Ballybough Pat 7/2 BOG. Form has been boosted yesterday by African Gold. Ground won't be a problem, good run last nice against a nice Nicholls horse when seeming outpaced. Over 3 miles today and should see more improvement. 3.15 Newbury - Pasco 6/1 BOG. Always runs well at Newbury, in off a nice low weight and won nicely first time out. 2.10 Thurles - Folsom Blue 4/1. Smart hurdler last season when beaten in last couple of races. Ran up a nice sequence and finished second in a grade 2. Should improve from last run as it took a run to put him right last season. I am willing to put a line through that and he should relish the conditions. Good luck all
alot of shorties today, the first 3 favs in Ireland look safe as do Saphir Du Rheu and Puffin Billy at Newbury, dont need to tell anyone that. None of them are screaming great single bet to me so maybe a treble the 3 in ireland and a double the two at Newbury, unlikely that they will all win right enough, usually at least one gets turned over. Couple at half decent prices Thurles 2.10 Folsom Blue 4/1 Newbury 2.40 Ballybough Pat 4/1 Said last time I was finished with Folsom but ill give him one more chance, anywhere near his c+d form from last year he will take a bit of beating, market suggests Son Amix will need the run and I had him as the main danger so should make the task a bit easier.
Great minds hopefully. I would be very hopeful that Folsom Blue should win today. Needed his first run last season and will hopefully make the neccessary improvement today.
3.15 Mahogony Blaze Ran a couple of fair races already this season and seems to be creeping down the weights, and getting back to full fitness, he hasn't won for a long time but he seems to be getting closer to the old form that would see him win this with some ease. He has run well at the track before (Game Spirit Chase) and I think the time is coming for the old boy to return to the winners enclosure. The yard are having winners and this race could fall apart a bit in my view. 16/1 EW looks very fair.
If you place a £10 fixed odds treble at Newbury with Betfair, you get a free £10 treble tomorrow. That's lured me in on a day where nothing leaps out, at least not at Newbury; 12.30 Saphir Du Rheu Evs 2.05 Dynaste 4/9 3.45 Khaki de La Pree 11/4 £10 win treble. Got a treble up last Saturday, so you never know. The only other runner to interest me goes in the 2.55 at Musselburgh, but they inspect agian at midday, so they might be frozen off. Which gets me out of taking short odds on War Poet, fit from the flat and on what looks a handy mark (106). He has to carry 11st10lbs, but that's because they've chosen to start him off in a low grade handicap. He'll be contesting much better races than this later in the season.
I am taking a chance on a surprise in the last at Newbury today. After 2 days racing and the course being cut up a little and the ground being softer than at Ascot. I am taking a chance on Hell's Spirit. Satifactory debut under rules when beaten well by Puffin Billy when receiving weight. He was a little outpaced that day and then stayed on again. The softer ground may negate this and at the prices I think he is worth a play at 20/1 for a place rather than taking the 6/5 favourite against a field of unexposed horses.
Just noticed that Tataniano's presence has a huge impact on the weights in the 3.15 at Newbury. Enough to make me think he might be in there just to keep The Knoxs burden down to 10st9lbs. The hint, and the 11/4, have been duly taken.
Saphir Du Rheu was well held on his debut and there seems some decent yard confidence about the Tizzards BOLD CUFFS 7-2 12.30 . The yard normally land their punts and this former Mark Prescott inmate won his last race on the level over 1m 4f. He will do for me!
2-40 Newbury What an Oscar. NTD has a habbit of sending soemthing out which looks like it has no chance and then hoses up around this time of the yesar. He's won a race which makes me think there's more to the horse than meets the eye. 40/1 - 4 places - my type of bet! Good luck all
SHOCKER, so peed off as I had it in a double with Gods Own..........knew that Nicholls hotpot would get stuffed (certainty...my arse)
Hello lads. Nothing for me as yet...haven't hasd a good look. Two nice horses fighting out the finish at Thurles and a lovely run from the third, Speckled Wood, on debut who is a daughter of that great mare Like-A- Butterfly by High Chaparral. Good little race that.
