Trifolium 16/1[/B] Should have put this up last night when he was 25/1 with 3 places paid but 16/1 in this 6 runner field still is a huge price about Charles Byrnes 5 year old. 3rd last year in the Supreme Novice, Trifolium finished 1.5L behind Cinders and Ashes and a neck behind Darlan and those 2 rivals reoppose on Saturday and are as short as 2/1 and 6/4 in the betting. On the basis of that alone it makes Trifolium's price look ridiculous but I think Trifolium would have actually won had he not had a slip coming around the home turn and the price disparity between him and those 2 rivals is crazy in my eyes. Moreso, he comes he race fit after a recent spin (his two rivals make their seasonal reappearances) and although he was disappointing it most certainly looked like he was just out for a spin in my eyes. Charles Byrnes does not send his horses across the water unless they are fancied and although I am on myself at a bigger price he still looks well worth taking at 16s.
He took a run or two last season to get straight and you are right ROTO it is a mad price disparity. Will come on enormously from last time out and he loves to get his toe in. Also he may well be allowed to dictate here because Cinders ans Darlan are not frontrunners at all and Trifolium when he gets a rhythm is a very good horse.
Price didn't last long and now best priced 12s - still something I consider worth taking. I'm not really a fan of either Cinders and Ashes or Darlan (can't see any of the first 3 home in the Supreme Novices been anywhere good enough to make the frame in the Champion Hurdle) and see Rock On Ruby as the big danger. Cinders And Ashes has to be the worst 6/4 shot I've seen in the world considering he was beaten on his reappearance last year!
Surely Darlan won't run? Sounds like the going at Newcastle will be worse than at Cheltenham. Cinders & Ashes has won twice on heavy (in fact he has hosed up twice on Haydock Heavy which is swamp-like), I certainly don't think he'll be inconvenienced by the ground.
Cinders and Ashes idled in the Supreme. Trifolium wasn't getting there slip or no slip. Agree he's a good price though.
Rock on Ruby at 10/3 is also a ridiculous price here what idiot priced this market up, why on earth is cinders and ashes shorter than then champion hurdler? I reckon time will show last seasons supreme novices to be a desperatley mediocre race. This is an all in jobby at that price.
Lifted from SportingLife... However Henderson admitted that he might again be forced to re-route Darlan and was left wondering how best to juggle his options alongside other top-notch hurdlers such as Grandouet and Binocular. "Even if Newcastle is on, you'd have to wonder whether we'd want to be going there anyway but even if they move the race to Newbury, it might well be heavy there too," he told Racing UK. "If we wait for December, we'll start to get a backlog. Do we run three in the same race at Cheltenham [International Hurdle]? It's starting to get a bit tricky." I dont see Darlan running, so were down to 5 and its up to you if you want to lump on at 5/4 for Cinders And Ashes now... Rock On Ruby has not got any form on heavy going, Countrywide Flame has a 2nd to his name on heavy ground over the 2m1... Bothy is the outsider and i cant see getting his head to the front, so that leaves us with Trifolium... And although he came 3rd to CaA at Cheltenham has got form on heavy ground... So i have to agree with ROTO, Trifolium shows the best price on offer... Saying that he is into 7/1 with PadPow now...
That may have happened but watch back the race and look how much momentum Trifolium lost with that slip. There is definitely a fair chance in my eyes that he would have won. Even still, he doesn't have much ground to make up on that running. Agreed that Rock On Ruby is overpriced and that last years Supreme Novices won't be up to cutting it at the highest level. I'd rather take the 16s (or 25s which I have with 3 places) then back Rock On Ruby though. If I had to take another horse it would have been him though
Personally i just dont think Trifolium is particularly good. I dont think the supreme form is all that great however i do think Darlan is still open to significant improvement this season, more so than the others and i think he could be a live champion hurdle contender by cheltenham. Rock On Ruby all day in this race for me. Best horse in the race
Newcastle will not be on hasn't stopped raining all day and same forecast again tomorrow. My garden is flooded
Don't get your logic BT. Trifolium finished a neck behind Darlan with a slip in the Supreme Novices and you don' think he is very good. You also think Darlan could be a live CH contender but admit that the Supreme form isn't great (I'd agree with the latter). Its going to take a ridiculous amount of improvement to be a CH contender if you can't even win a race that whereby you think the form won't result to much. At the end of the day they're all 2nd season hurdlers so all should be entitled to some improvement. Personally, I'm not really a fan of Daraln at all and think there is no chance in hell he'll make the Champion Hurdle frame (let alone win it). Not saying its impossible but I highly, highly doubt it - AP said that his intended run at Cheltenham would tell them if he was good enough or if that as his level. If he was a genuine CH contender they'd know by now in my opinion. That said I'm not sure its going to be a vintage renewal of the CH unless in the unlikely event Simonsig goes there (may happen if Darlan isn't deemed up to scratch). If last years CH form stacks up, I'd expect Rock On Ruby to dispatch of this field comfortably but thats a big if.
Trifolium now as short as 4/1 facing 4 rivals. Absolutely loving my 25s with 3 places paid. Charles Byrnes has confirmed him as a runner and he's had a wind op since his last run.
Got beaten by a horse rated 109 on debut for Byrnes (on back of 4 month absence) so he clearly needs a run to get him going. He certainly didn't look like he was out to win his reappearance last year and he's had a wind op since then as well.
Yeah its turned lovely. I need him to beat one home for 25/1 place. I think he'll do better than that though for anyone who got on at 16s with 2 places
Is everyone over looking Countrywide Flame here?? Ran some good races on the level, notably when second to Aaim To Prosper (who goes today), so fitness shouldn't be an issue. The heavy going isn't too much of a concern and I think the Triumph form will prove to be better than the Supreme Novices. Dodging Bullets has already come out and won a couple of races and Balder Success came out and beat Hollow Tree, so the form is stacking up nicely. Grumeti has also ran some nice races on the flat this summer. He is currently 5/1 with Stan James, that looks a great price to me. Also as an aside, I am looking forward to Pearl Swan this season. Only 3 runs last year, beat Grumeti giving him 3lbs only to have it turned around in the stewards room. Whatever they have planned for him, he looks one to keep tabs on.
You might be right Brigadier but 5/1 for Countrywide Flame looks horrendous value when people are sitting on 25/1 each way 3 places paid bets in a 4 runner race.
