Arkle offered up some info on Red Cadeaux's chances next Tuesday. So I thought if anyone is interested in the race, they can post here. On the Red Cadeaux issue, Ed Dunlop thinks that this could be his year. After entering the race as a late target, he went down by a lip to Dunaden, after hitting the front a furlong out. His Rider Micheal Rodd is of the opinion that RD threw the race away when he ducked in down the straight. Dunlop has aimed the horse specifically at this race this year. He freshend the horse mid year and has produced him, a bigger and heavier animal this time around. His work at Werribee has been as expected. The horse on the fourth line of betting at 10-1.
Well done Cyclonic...as you know I am a statto and can recite every Derby and Grand National winner since 1955 without any problems...could never do the same with the Melbourne Cup and the only ones I vividly remember are Phar Lap 1930 (great movie) Vintage Crop 1993 when jockey Mick Kinane won our Derby also and Makybe Diva 2003-2005 inclusive !
Fiorente, the former Stout horse, it seems has blossomed in guaranteed at Werribee this week. At about 25-1, he looks to be a lightweight chance. After beating beating Joshua Tree and Red Cadeaux in the G2 Princess of Wales's Stakes, he was brought for around the million dollar mark and sent to Gai Waterhouse and set for the Cup. His rider.rack 20 year old Kiwi, James McDonald rates the horse a live chance.
Cyc: For some weird reason have not been following-up on the MC this year, but am still being quizzed regularly by good friend in Bangkok (long-time resident, and, amazingly, still living)) as to who will win it. So, when you have finalized your selection will pinch it and radio my mate out there. Thank you. Will watch this space.
My memory is not so good...I prefer to keep it uncluttered with unnecessary historical bric-a-brac and use it instead as an analytical tool. In fact,as Cyc can attest to,if you were up at 3.40 am GMT on the day of last years MC,you would have had the 15/2 winner tipped up by a contributor who is much to modest to mention it.
Cyc: Good day to you! Checked the Melbourne weather forecast, looks like decent weather for Tuesday with just the occasional shower? So, in the hope that the ground will be decent, will go for Luca Cumani's Mount Athos. Hope it will change Cumani's shocking bad luck in this big race. Liked the run of Mount Athos LTO in the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer at Newbury over 13.5f (2715.7734m, to be exact). Showed a nice turn of foot at the end of a race that went at a fair gallop throughout. He'll do for me. Will advise my old mate in Bangkok well in time! Look forward to this great race, but will have to set the alarm, and loud!
Onya Ron. You da man Swanny, what you say goes. Mount Athos been a bit of a tip around here of late. I'll chase up all the stuff I can find in the next couple of days and post anything of note.
Is this historically a good race for favs cyclonic? And does it tend to favour the top weights or something lurking at the bottom?
Morning everyone. I'm a massive fan of the Melbourne Cup. In fact I love it! Great race and I love it that it stops Australia! For me a big punt on Mount Athos. Cumani desperately wants to win it and I think this horse is well handicapped. I see there is confidence behind Dunaden from the owner but I just think he has too much weight. Good luck all.
Big fan of the melbourne Cup - as Mr Twain said any country who has a national holiday for a horse rasce has to be the most civilised in the world (or soemthing along those lines anyway) Morayan is the pick for me. looks well weighted and at 25s is a nice each way proposition.
Ok. the cup is notoriously hard to win for a second time. Since 1861 only a handful of horses have managed to win it twice, with just the one, three times. Weights stop trains and more often than not, the same applies to horses in this race. For the most part, the race has been won by 4 and 5 year olds. Fillies and mare have a bad record in the race. Favourites win 1 in every 5 races. Barriers have next to no bearing on the race.
Good stuff. I'm off to buy a Racing Post, and try to apply your stats. The alarm will be set for Silly O'Clock. Haldon Gold cup at Exeter in the afternoon, too.
