Monday 5th November Daily Thread

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OddDog

OddDog

Mild mannered janitor
Staff member
Jun 2, 2011
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Berlin, Germany
Kempton and Plumpton over the sticks and Wolverhampton on the flat.

RANSOM NOTE, I repeat, RANSOM NOTE goes in the opener at Kempton. Ooooooooooooooooooooooohhhhhhmmmpppphhhhh!!!!

Also a Pertemps qualifier where Ruby pops in to ride Black Thunder - Nicholls took this last year with King Of The Night <ok>

The graduation chase is a cracker with Ghizao, Hell's Bay and Kumbeshwar very closely matched.

Also like Pendra in the first at Plumpton and the half sister to Carole's Legacy in the 1.20.

Above average fare for a Monday in November !!
 
Perfect track for Ransom Note to start on, be very surprised if he doesn't run very well. I await BC plot post tomorrow morning....
 
HI NOTE - 2.40 Kemp 10/1

UBALDO DES MENHIES - 12.50 Plump 8/1

WILTSHIRE LIFE - 1.45 Wolv 12/1

LASTKINGOFSCOTLAND - 2.15 Wolv 8/1


JOB DONE!!
 
Black Thunder 2/1 with BV and I would have been happy to have £800 on that in my Betting Experiments (now over).

So to be able to take the 9/4, effectively gives me £100 free saver on Bold Chief at 6/1

Seems a pretty decent bet to me.
 
Something to brighten up your evening - funny as **** this lad

[video=youtube;rpaCQKJpE9k]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rpaCQKJpE9k[/video]
 
Jeffery82 said:
me mate says porters war will win the 205 at kemp
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Is a horse who I tipped up on his debut for Jeremy Scott when I think he would have won if jumping the last two better. I think 4s looks a great price and I'll be on again. This is what I said the last day.

ROTO said:
2.50 Huntingdon

Porters War 7/1 NB

I think Porters War could strike at the first time of asking for Jeremy Scott who looks on a good mark when weighing up his previous form. This 10 year old gelding is is very lightly raced under rules for his age with only 16 starts to date and this will be his first run in this sphere for almost two years (he did have a run in a point in June where he was apparently beaten a long way). Formerly trained by Alan King, he was a decent enough chaser and was rated 120 at his peak with his last win coming off a mark of 113 over this distance back in April 2009. He's now fallen a long way in the weights to a mark of 99 and if Jeremy Scott has revitalised him then I think he should be more than capable of scoring off his current mark. Scott has proved adept at rejuvenating horses after a break from other trainers as can be seen by Quaddick Lake winning on stable debut after a 14 month break earlier this year so that has to go down as a big plus when weighing up Porters War's chances. Huntingdon has been a happy hunting ground for the stable for this former farmer with the yard having a tremendous 6-8 record at the track (1-2 chasing, 5-6 hurdling[scary stat given he has an unexposed horse running in The Last Night's race!]) so I think its quite significant that Porters War has his first start for the yard here. If his June Point to Point has blown away his cobwebs, I think Porters War looks primed for a big showing for a stable whose last runner was successful last week.
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Porters War has naver won ain anuthin other than good ta firm. Just ah wee heads up!;) i wouldnae be goin mad ain it
 
2.25 Plumpton

Dromore Hill 4/1 NAP

No surprise to see this one supported considering Claire Dyson is absolutely flying at the moment but looking at the horse I can see why as I think this 8 year old has a cracking chance. Although winless in 15 starts under rules to date and clearly no superstar whatseover, I definitely think he has some wiggle room off his current mark of 72 and I expect him to go close to breaking his duck at the 16th time of asking. Dromore Hill started off his career with Charlie Morlock and it definitely seemed as if chasing was his game when finishing 3-3-2 in his first career starts in that sphere off handicap marks 87, 85 and 84 at the backend of 2010 whilst he also put in a good showing when beaten 7.5L off a mark of 86 in March 2011 which are highlights of a pretty unspectacular career to date. He only had one more start for Charlie Morlock after that 7.5L defeat two weeks later before joining Alison Thorpe which was a wholly unsuccessful partnership as he finished pulled up and tailed off in 2 handicap hurdles in October 2011 and he was not seen again since making his debut for Claire Dyson last month.

On the back of a 12 month absence and with cheekpieces reapplied for the first time since 2010, I think Dromore Hill performed very well on his debut for the Dyson yard over 3m2f off a mark of 80 at Wincanton as he helped set the pace for much of the contest. He was still there bang in the thick of things with about 3/4 of a mile to go before it seemed as if his long absence from the track got the better of him and he dropped back fairly quickly and he seemed a tired horse. However, he was not given an overly hard time of things by Jimmy McCarthy when beaten and I thought it was definitely a highly encouraging debut for the stable. I think the handicapper has been extremely lenient by dropping him 8lb for that effort and Dromore Hill now falls to a career low mark of 72 which I think looks well within his scope of ability. Trainer Claire Dyson has really hit top form with 4 winners from her last 10 runners (a further 4 have placed) and that is a massive positive for this 8 year olds chances. Young conditional jockey Gerald Quinn takes the ride and a very handy 7lb off bringing Dromore Hill's mark down to an effective 65 for tomorrows race. Quinn is a jockey that I have been pretty impressed with for quite a while and I think he is more than worth his claim. With his mark looking very manageable, his trainer in such good form and the price falling the longer it takes me to finish this, I believe Dromore Hill has an excellent chance of landing this and I hope he makes it 16th time lucky.
 
Have to say as well folks, Ransom Note running over hurdles is a big thing for the NH sphere. He must be the highest-rated flat horse to go hurdling for some time.


I cannot see him being anything special though- it takes a special type of flat horse to take to hurdles.
 
Interesting, since 26th April 2009, with the exception of one race (penultimate outing) Porters War appears to have deteriorated with every race, reaching an all time low on his latest outing. Selected by Timeform and ATR and generally showing as 7/2 fav. I don't understand it but then I haven't studied the opposition. Gambled on last time out. Nothing to tempt me to back it (but then I don't bet) but very best of luck to all who are on. Hope it wins for you.
 
Ron said:
Interesting, since 26th April 2009, with the exception of one race (penultimate outing) Porters War appears to have deteriorated with every race, reaching an all time low on his latest outing. Selected by Timeform and ATR and generally showing as 7/2 fav. I don't understand it but then I haven't studied the opposition. Gambled on last time out. Nothing to tempt me to back it (but then I don't bet) but very best of luck to all who are on. Hope it wins for you.
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Last time was first time out for Jeremy Scott Ron. Scott has proved extremely adept at revitalising horses who had lost their way. Was rated 120 at his peak and won off 113 back in 09 so his mark of 101 looks very manageable. I think he would have won if he had jumped better at the last 2 fences on his first start for the yard and with a 2nd start in 2 years (the other in a point in June) under his belt he should strip fitter and go close. I get the 4/1.
 
Morning, troops. Hope everyone had a good weekend. Nothing for me today but I will be watching the card commencer at old Kempton Park (1.00) with keen interest as there appear to be 2 potentially really useful novice hurdlers making there timber bow &#8211; Ransom Note and Mr Henderson&#8217;s Golden Hoof. What a lovely name for a gelding by the way &#8211; Golden Hoof that is not Mr Henderson. Those bookie chappies can&#8217;t currently split them (7/4 each of two) and neither can I hence the flying of the &#8216;no bet&#8217; banner. Ransom Note was top notch on the level whilst Golden Hoof ran an eyecatching race on his bumper bow and is rumoured to be very good. One to watch not bet in, methinks.

Meanwhile, people, my usual wealth warning applies to the Pertemps Qualifier on the card (2.40). In these heats half the field are only running to qualify for the Final whilst amongst the other 50% there are usually more plots than in an Agatha Christie novel. They are very, very, and I do mean very, very risky betting mediums and I always steer well clear.

Good luck though if you do trade.
 
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