I hate these normally, but I'm more optimistic than ever this year. I think a lot of you are aware that I have some slightly unusual views, but here they are anyway.
Manchester City
They are a lot more fragile than most people will have you believe. They are hugely dependent on Kompany and Yaya Toure, who must recreate last year's form for City to do well. They will be fortified with greater self belief this year, but it remains to be seen if the players are still hungry after sating their appetite for a trophy last year. They may focus on the CL this year and let someone sneak in and steal their title away. They are still a good team, maybe even THE team to beat, but strangely, very thin at the back and in midfield. No signings to talk about yet. Generally champions don't do well the year after. Retaining is surprisingly difficult, although people tend to predict clubs to retain their title often.
Prediction - 2nd
Manchester United
Kagawa is a good signing, but he can't replace Carrick, Giggs and Scholes all by himself. They still haven't found a decent pair to replace Vidic and Ferdinand, or find a decent partner for Rooney. SAF works miracles but even he needs water to turn into wine. Not only that, but Evra is starting to lose a yard or two as well. I don't think the money is there to rebuild completely and while I think SAF has the class to keep them in the top 4, if injuries and luck go against him, this could be an ugly season for United.
Prediction - 4th
Chelsea
Well they have been spending again. They definitely don't think FFP is going to mean much. A lot is going to depend on how well RDM has picked his men, or did Abramovich do the picking, who knows? In any case, they seem to have gone for all light skillful types, which might be excellent synergy, or leave them all looking at each other when it is time to defend. Similar to Manchester United, they have to try and replace Lampard, Terry and Drogba, or drag another year out of them (not Drogba of course). Despite their active off-season they still have a few gaps in the side, and an inexperienced manager. They definitely need a fast start. If they lose a few early, RDM is going to get the sack and the whole thing could get ugly fast.
Prediction - 3rd
Arsenal
When figuring out Arsenal, you always have to take into account the one or two players that are going to suddenly put in a 'season of a lifetime' performance. Unfortunately, there will always then be six players that leave, get a season-long injury, or inexplicably lose form as well. This year Wenger and the club seem to have a different attitude, which makes RVP's statements and actions all the more mystifying. I don't think I have any fear that the Arsenal forwards are going to score goals. Giroud and Podolski have a good pedigree and I am sure that if Manchester United had signed either, they would be already crowned champions by most of the press. The midfield seems to be stacked with talent and there are too many decent players in there for there not to be 3 of them that will have a good season. As always, it will come down to the defence, and if the new assistant manager, Steve Bould, can sort them out, but I think that the Arsenal are going to be a huge surprise to everyone this year.
Prediction - 1st
Spurs
Well, this is going to be similar to Arsenal of days gone by, in a way. They are always going to be able to score goals, but their defence is a disaster. Vertonghen is coming in as the savior, but it is asking a lot for him to come straight in from the Eredivisie and immediately dominate in the premier league. Gallas is long past his sell by date, and King has retired. Spurs looked very shaky without King last year, and Dawson played only 6 games in the PL (and one brief sub's appearance), only two of which resulted in victories. Bassong is now 8 losses out of 8 in his last 8 premiership games, so he isn't the answer either. AVB hasn't impressed anyone with his defensive organization skills, from his time with Chelsea, so there is real doubt he will be able to rebuild the defence. On the upside, they are strong at full back on both sides and any team that can leave Defoe on the bench so much (or sell him) is strong up front, but if they start to suffer any injury list at all, they could be in for a tough season. Oh yes, and they need a goalkeeper, if Friedel plays any longer he is going to start having senior moments.
Prediction - Mid-table
Liverpool
These guys really should do better. Am I the only one that thought England got lucky getting Roy and Liverpool picked the wrong man? Dalglish must be Wenger's hero. He proved that spending a gazillion pounds doesn't necessarily buy you success. Once he spent all that money, including some fairly large gambles, the players all let him down terribly. He had no choice but to play them. On the upside, Liverpool have some good young players and a new manager, who favours a game that seems better suited to the team, with a few notable exceptions (Carroll sit down at the back - oh you are sitting down). I still think they have too many runners and not enough creators, but if Adams and the young lads can get it together, these guys may surprise people. Defensively they are OK, certainly in better shape than many.
Prediction - 5th
Newcastle
It is very difficult to talk about Newcastle, but nice to see the Toon army something other than despondent at the end of the season. The thing that strikes me most is that they have a very, very, thin squad. They got off to a great start and then Steven Taylor got injured. Their defence then became a shambles. They seem to be solid against any team outside the top 6 (more solid than some of the top 6 in fact), but they don't seem to have the beating of the real title contenders. So either Pardew is a tactical genius, or they need to find some self-belief from somewhere. I think they will do well, but they seem to be missing a little bit of class in the middle of the field to unlock the top defences, or break into the top 4.
Prediction - Mid-table
Everton
David Moyes the media darling. The shine is coming off a little. If Newcastle are thin though, then Everton are positively anorexic. I think this could be the year the wheels come off. Playing Everton is one where you just hope you catch them when they are tired or have injuries. Their first 11 can beat anyone, but one or two injuries later they can't beat anyone. It is really difficult to see where the goals are going to come from this year, but they will still pull off an upset or six.
Prediction - Mid-table
Aston Villa
Well, they have money. And they have a new manager; again. They should be right up there with Spurs and Newcastle, but they aren't; again. Why not? I haven't got a clue. The team seem talented, they have depth, a lot of them have great individual games and they have a good youth team. It should be great, but it isn't. I think they need to have a manager who can pull them together as a team and make them work for each other. At the moment all of them seem to be trying to play for themselves and attract a team to buy them out of purgatory. Lambert may be able to do that, he revived a dead and buried Norwich team that had sunk as low as it could go (nearly). I think they might do well this year.
Prediction - 6th
Sunderland
I have to say, that Sunderland surprised me last year. They finished higher than I thought they would. I think their defence is suspect, they are a little short of strikers and their midfield overcomes their lack of flair by working their socks off. Credit it to them, that midfield worked hard enough to save the team last year, which is commendable. Not sure if it is going to be enough this year. I think they may be headed for the relegation battle. Can't say I am certain though, they have great support and team passion, but if they lose morale, they might be in trouble.
Prediction - Relegation battle
Manchester City
They are a lot more fragile than most people will have you believe. They are hugely dependent on Kompany and Yaya Toure, who must recreate last year's form for City to do well. They will be fortified with greater self belief this year, but it remains to be seen if the players are still hungry after sating their appetite for a trophy last year. They may focus on the CL this year and let someone sneak in and steal their title away. They are still a good team, maybe even THE team to beat, but strangely, very thin at the back and in midfield. No signings to talk about yet. Generally champions don't do well the year after. Retaining is surprisingly difficult, although people tend to predict clubs to retain their title often.
Prediction - 2nd
Manchester United
Kagawa is a good signing, but he can't replace Carrick, Giggs and Scholes all by himself. They still haven't found a decent pair to replace Vidic and Ferdinand, or find a decent partner for Rooney. SAF works miracles but even he needs water to turn into wine. Not only that, but Evra is starting to lose a yard or two as well. I don't think the money is there to rebuild completely and while I think SAF has the class to keep them in the top 4, if injuries and luck go against him, this could be an ugly season for United.
Prediction - 4th
Chelsea
Well they have been spending again. They definitely don't think FFP is going to mean much. A lot is going to depend on how well RDM has picked his men, or did Abramovich do the picking, who knows? In any case, they seem to have gone for all light skillful types, which might be excellent synergy, or leave them all looking at each other when it is time to defend. Similar to Manchester United, they have to try and replace Lampard, Terry and Drogba, or drag another year out of them (not Drogba of course). Despite their active off-season they still have a few gaps in the side, and an inexperienced manager. They definitely need a fast start. If they lose a few early, RDM is going to get the sack and the whole thing could get ugly fast.
Prediction - 3rd
Arsenal
When figuring out Arsenal, you always have to take into account the one or two players that are going to suddenly put in a 'season of a lifetime' performance. Unfortunately, there will always then be six players that leave, get a season-long injury, or inexplicably lose form as well. This year Wenger and the club seem to have a different attitude, which makes RVP's statements and actions all the more mystifying. I don't think I have any fear that the Arsenal forwards are going to score goals. Giroud and Podolski have a good pedigree and I am sure that if Manchester United had signed either, they would be already crowned champions by most of the press. The midfield seems to be stacked with talent and there are too many decent players in there for there not to be 3 of them that will have a good season. As always, it will come down to the defence, and if the new assistant manager, Steve Bould, can sort them out, but I think that the Arsenal are going to be a huge surprise to everyone this year.
Prediction - 1st
Spurs
Well, this is going to be similar to Arsenal of days gone by, in a way. They are always going to be able to score goals, but their defence is a disaster. Vertonghen is coming in as the savior, but it is asking a lot for him to come straight in from the Eredivisie and immediately dominate in the premier league. Gallas is long past his sell by date, and King has retired. Spurs looked very shaky without King last year, and Dawson played only 6 games in the PL (and one brief sub's appearance), only two of which resulted in victories. Bassong is now 8 losses out of 8 in his last 8 premiership games, so he isn't the answer either. AVB hasn't impressed anyone with his defensive organization skills, from his time with Chelsea, so there is real doubt he will be able to rebuild the defence. On the upside, they are strong at full back on both sides and any team that can leave Defoe on the bench so much (or sell him) is strong up front, but if they start to suffer any injury list at all, they could be in for a tough season. Oh yes, and they need a goalkeeper, if Friedel plays any longer he is going to start having senior moments.
Prediction - Mid-table
Liverpool
These guys really should do better. Am I the only one that thought England got lucky getting Roy and Liverpool picked the wrong man? Dalglish must be Wenger's hero. He proved that spending a gazillion pounds doesn't necessarily buy you success. Once he spent all that money, including some fairly large gambles, the players all let him down terribly. He had no choice but to play them. On the upside, Liverpool have some good young players and a new manager, who favours a game that seems better suited to the team, with a few notable exceptions (Carroll sit down at the back - oh you are sitting down). I still think they have too many runners and not enough creators, but if Adams and the young lads can get it together, these guys may surprise people. Defensively they are OK, certainly in better shape than many.
Prediction - 5th
Newcastle
It is very difficult to talk about Newcastle, but nice to see the Toon army something other than despondent at the end of the season. The thing that strikes me most is that they have a very, very, thin squad. They got off to a great start and then Steven Taylor got injured. Their defence then became a shambles. They seem to be solid against any team outside the top 6 (more solid than some of the top 6 in fact), but they don't seem to have the beating of the real title contenders. So either Pardew is a tactical genius, or they need to find some self-belief from somewhere. I think they will do well, but they seem to be missing a little bit of class in the middle of the field to unlock the top defences, or break into the top 4.
Prediction - Mid-table
Everton
David Moyes the media darling. The shine is coming off a little. If Newcastle are thin though, then Everton are positively anorexic. I think this could be the year the wheels come off. Playing Everton is one where you just hope you catch them when they are tired or have injuries. Their first 11 can beat anyone, but one or two injuries later they can't beat anyone. It is really difficult to see where the goals are going to come from this year, but they will still pull off an upset or six.
Prediction - Mid-table
Aston Villa
Well, they have money. And they have a new manager; again. They should be right up there with Spurs and Newcastle, but they aren't; again. Why not? I haven't got a clue. The team seem talented, they have depth, a lot of them have great individual games and they have a good youth team. It should be great, but it isn't. I think they need to have a manager who can pull them together as a team and make them work for each other. At the moment all of them seem to be trying to play for themselves and attract a team to buy them out of purgatory. Lambert may be able to do that, he revived a dead and buried Norwich team that had sunk as low as it could go (nearly). I think they might do well this year.
Prediction - 6th
Sunderland
I have to say, that Sunderland surprised me last year. They finished higher than I thought they would. I think their defence is suspect, they are a little short of strikers and their midfield overcomes their lack of flair by working their socks off. Credit it to them, that midfield worked hard enough to save the team last year, which is commendable. Not sure if it is going to be enough this year. I think they may be headed for the relegation battle. Can't say I am certain though, they have great support and team passion, but if they lose morale, they might be in trouble.
Prediction - Relegation battle
3rd would be a really decent finish (as it was last season)
,with the rubbish they have playing for them