Italy had the best defensive record in the Q games as they conceded only 2 goals, and they are noted for the dark arts of defending. In their last 9 competitve games there have been 2 or fewer goals – ie the Under 2.5 goals bet had a 100% record in those games.
2. Italy didn’t concede a single goal in the first half in any of their group games - 0-0 Spain, 1-0 Croatia, 1-0 Eire.
3. Under Hodgson, England are a well drilled defensive side with two banks of four, a real team spirit, an inspirational captain, with good attacking players in Carroll and Walcott probably on the bench.
4. Italy will miss their injured LB Chiellini and MF Thiago Motta is also doubtful.
5. Tactically England must nullify MF Pirlo who is the ‘heartbeat’ of the Italian side - so we may well see Rooney dropping back to give the MF an extra man.
6. Italy will probably start Balotelli ,keeping 34 year old Di Natale who is a superb natural finisher on the bench.
7. Indeed players coming off the bench could well be crucial - remember Walcott’s impact against Sweden?
8. England defensively have a weakness at RB Glen Johnson who was very poor in the second half against Sweden, and in John Terry playing ‘out of position’ at RCB whose initial error led to Ukraine’s goal that wasn’t.
IN SUM - The probability is a tight defensive game with Italy who have the better technical players enjoying the bulk of possession. The first half will surely be very very cagey with no risk football played so a HT draw looks likely. It’s not easy to see either side scoring twice in 90 mins so if that’s true there are 4 probable scores 1-0, 0-1, 0-0 or 1-1 and two of them are draws so the 90 minute draw and extra time is a real runner.
