Daily Thread Friday 8th June

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R

ROTO

Well-Known Member
Jun 20, 2011
2,397
72
48
Dublin, Ireland
8.50 Doncaster

Qaraaba 5/2 NAP

Very surprised 5/2 is available about Seamus Durack's very progressive 5 year old who was denied his hat trick LTO but I'm very confident he can resume winning ways in fine style tomorrow. After a good 3 year old season and an ok 4 year old season, Qaraaba has really taken off now a 5 year old winning his first two starts before finding only a progressive rival too good for him LTO. He started the year winning over a mile at Kempton off a mark of 76 before scooting home impressively over tomorrow's C+D impressively in a Class 4 handicap off a mark of 81. The form of that race looks very solid with the 2nd putting in some very consistent if not spectacular efforts off a 2lb higher mark whilst the 3rd has won and finished runner up from two of his last 3 starts. On his last start, Qaraaba was raised 7lb to a mark of 88 and was upped to a Class 3 event as he ran out what has turned out to be an excellent 1.75L beaten 2nd in the 20 runner field. The winner Danadana has since scored off a 9lb higher mark in a higher class event so its clear he just ran into an even more progressive rival that day. The 6th has also franked that form with an excellent 0.5L beaten 3rd in a higher Class subsequently which adds substance to this effort. He's been raised 4lb to a career high mark of 92 but given he may have bumped into a Pattern Class filly on his last start I certainly don't think this will be beyond him. Remaining in a Class 3, Seamus Durack's C+D winner is clearly still progressing and I'll be very surprised if anything is good enough to beat him tomorrow, especially as the trainer is 2-2 this month.
 
Exams finished so off to Newmarket tomorrow where we have the luxury of free entry. We also have an early start with a tour of Jeremy Noseda's yard starting at 8.00am, followed by a look round Dalham Hall Stud at 11.00am before heading off to the races. It should be a fantastic day provided that the weather isn't too unkind.

My brief, and probably not very good, thoughts on the card. I thought that the 4.40 looks a really good race in particular.
http://cuhrs.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/newmarket-free-friday.html
 
4.30 is a good race tomorrow Zen. Would not put you off Trois Valees 11/2. I think it is a horse very fairly handicapped off 83 on 3rd start. I'd estimate that he has at least 7lb in hand of that mark, no question in my head that he is Group 3 level. Shaped really nicely when learning all the time in soft ground behind Most Improved last season and then travelled sweetly winning a maiden at Kempton.

Not at all convinced Thomas Chippendale wants 10f to be honest. Jungle Beat will be interesting over a mile and a half, and therefore it looks like that race might fall into Dettoris hands if he nurses him gradually into contention. Samba King will go from the front to set the tempo.
 
Keep an eye out for Saddlers Rock tomorrow in the 7.35 Leopardstown. He's definitely going to improve a hell of a lot for the run tomorrow and although he looks a massive price at 2/1 I think he's clearly only out for a spin before the Ascot Gold Cup in two weeks. It'll be only a watching brief for me tomorrow but mark my words: he is going to destroy Fame & Glory in two weeks time.
 
Anyone watch Day in the Sun today? What the hell happened? I didn't bet all day but after the debut run I expected some improvement not regression. Strange.
 
Anyone know what Weld is planning on doing with Speaking of Which? I expect that one to prove to be group 2 class. Maybe a weak group one.
 
I'm backing Jungle Beat tomorrow in the 4.30 at Newmarket for a fairly confident bet at 9/2. That seasonal debut is looking like fairly strong form in the context of this race and with improvement likely I think he may turn this into a bit of a procession.
 
7.45 Doncaster

Chiswick Bey 25/1 NB

Despite having to put two 'disappointing' efforts behind him, 25/1 looks an absolutely massive price about Richard Fahey's 4 year old and I think the return to good ground and the step up to a mile will definitely suit him tomorrow. Chiswick Bey is pretty unexposed with only 11 starts to date and Richard Fahey's gelding looked a rather progressive animal at the end of last year. Winning on debut at the track, Chiswick Bey contested the Group 2 Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot in his 2 year old career and although outclassed, it shows connections like him. On his 4th start Chiswick Bey made his handicap debut off a mark of 85 at Newcaslte as he ran out an impressive winner of the small runner field. Subsequently, he was hardly disgraced off marks of 92 and 93 when finishing less than 7L behind the very talented Wooten Bassett before finishing midfield in the Listed 2 YO Trophy at Redcar which rounded off his 2YO campaign.

Last year Chiswick Bey was restricted to only 2 starts as a 3 year old so he either suffered an injury or else is difficult to get ready. On his reappearance, he looked as if he needed the run and on is 2nd start during the last campaign he ran a very good race to finish 1.25L behind stablemate Common Touch off a mark of 90, a horse I rate quite highly at good ground over 7f at York. The form of that race is strong with Common Touch winning off a 5lb higher mark on his next start with some authority and he has also been beaten by less than a length off a 12lb higher mark. The time of this race was also good and in Richard Fahey's interview after this race I think its very telling that he said Chiswick Bey would be upped to a mile (tomorrow's trip) and it should bring some improvement about him. 2 starts back Chiswick Bey's made his reappearance on the back of an 11 month absence where he was disappointing but I'm putting that down as him needing the run. LTO he faced a Class 3 7f event at Newcastle and I really think you have to ignore that run as it was heavy, heavy ground and I don't think you can read much into that form at all. Resultantly, he's now down to a mark of 87 and I think he looks very well handicapped, being only 2lb above his very impressive last win and 3lb below his excellent effort behind a progressive rival in a Class 2 event. Although he looks 2nd string on jockey booking, I am not concerned in the slightest as on numerous occasions for Fahey the apparent outsider has won. Tony Hamilton takes the ride and he's a jockey I have absolutely no problems with whatsoever. With a good draw in stall 9, I am confident of a big showing from Chiswick Bey and hopefully he can land this open affair at a lovely price.
 
ROTO said:
8.50 Doncaster

Qaraaba 5/2 NAP

Very surprised 5/2 is available about Seamus Durack's very progressive 5 year old who was denied his hat trick LTO but I'm very confident he can resume winning ways in fine style tomorrow. After a good 3 year old season and an ok 4 year old season, Qaraaba has really taken off now a 5 year old winning his first two starts before finding only a progressive rival too good for him LTO. He started the year winning over a mile at Kempton off a mark of 76 before scooting home impressively over tomorrow's C+D impressively in a Class 4 handicap off a mark of 81. The form of that race looks very solid with the 2nd putting in some very consistent if not spectacular efforts off a 2lb higher mark whilst the 3rd has won and finished runner up from two of his last 3 starts. On his last start, Qaraaba was raised 7lb to a mark of 88 and was upped to a Class 3 event as he ran out what has turned out to be an excellent 1.75L beaten 2nd in the 20 runner field. The winner Danadana has since scored off a 9lb higher mark in a higher class event so its clear he just ran into an even more progressive rival that day. The 6th has also franked that form with an excellent 0.5L beaten 3rd in a higher Class subsequently which adds substance to this effort. He's been raised 4lb to a career high mark of 92 but given he may have bumped into a Pattern Class filly on his last start I certainly don't think this will be beyond him. Remaining in a Class 3, Seamus Durack's C+D winner is clearly still progressing and I'll be very surprised if anything is good enough to beat him tomorrow, especially as the trainer is 2-2 this month.
Click to expand...

I'll give you 11/4?
 
Couldn't back anything in this ****e weather tbh, ****e ground and plenty of excuses if they lose. One bet for me tomorrow and it's not horse related, i have a substantial bet on Russia to beat Czech Republic at 11/10, easiest money i'll ever make. Best of luck with the horses guy's.
 
Morning, all. Cor blimey the weather is Horrific with a capital ‘H’ this morn with the wind and rain quite literally hammering it down. Quite nice racing today though and I will nominate to the old regular readers:

Roxelana (5.05 Newmarket) - this is a most progressive filly who has not been out of the first 2 in her 3 runs to date. Put up a nice run on her handicap bow last time to take 2nd at Goodwood and her trainer, Mr Noseda, seems to have found a nice opportunity for Roxelana here in this Classified event. Long term looks to have the potential to be much better than a Class 5 filly.

Gordon Flash (6.30 Bath) - as I said yesterday morn I think that this one is very interesting on its bow for old Barrington's boy, Charlie Hills. Although Gordon Flash has his first run this evening for 650 days and his fitness has to be taken on trust I still like him off a very low mark of 63 as when trained by Richard Hannon he was placed on numerous occasions displaying ability in the process. Could run a corker here and 11/1 looks a very generous price.

All Time (9.00 Goodwood) - exceptionally bred filly who is a half sister to such luminaries as Timepiece and Passage of Time and a full brother to Father Time. The fact that she has been kept in training, rather than retired to the old breeding shed, is most eyecatching methinks. Her sole start to date saw All Time finish behind subsequent Oaks winner, Dancing Rain, last April at Newbury when prominent in the market. Today she steps back in trip to a mile after failing to quite last home over 10 furlongs on that occasion. Hopefully, Sir Henry's magic can get her in the winner's enclosure today before a possible step up to Pattern class.

Good luck all.
 
Morning all.


SBC I must say I had just been looking at All Time and had put up this short write up on Microsoft Word. I am sure a good fella like yourself will not mind me sticking All Time on the board as well. Surely we both can't be wrong ?


9.00 Goodwood ALL TIME (NAP) 5/2

Been good reports about this one on several websites and sadly the 10/1 forecast price is way off as she has opened up 5/2. I will still have a decent bet on her as she comes from a good family that Sir Henry has done incredibly well with in the past (Passage Of Time, Father Time). All Time finished 9th behind subequent Oaks winner Dancing Rain on her debut and it looks significant that she remains in training. NAP
 
Not disagreeing with your selection as I haven't really looked at the race myself, but is finishing 9th really a boost to the form? She wasn't just beaten by an oaks winner, she was beaten by another 7 horses aswell :biggrin:
 
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