3.10 Wincanton Natural Spring 15/2 Suzy Smith's 7 year old may be absolutely thrown in off her open handicap mark of 107 and I think the handicapper could easily have been very lenient considering some of the form she has to her name. Although still a maiden, she has put up some very decent performances to date in her 8 starts to date with her career starting back in 2009. Notably, she finished beaten by 5.5L in a bumper back in 2010 with the two in front of her now rated 133 and 126 over hurdles and in a Jumpers Bumper on the fibresand in December that same year as she finished a head behind The Hollinwell, who is a very talented chaser on his day. Moreover, she also beat Cloudy Spirit who is a 132 rated hurdler by 2.75L that day off level weights so she certainly is a talented mare. Her 2nd last start came in January 2011 in a 2m3f novices hurdle event where she finished a respectable 16L beaten 4th, with the front 3 drawing 14L clear. That day she jumped really sloppy and also ballooned a number of the flights. That said, she stuck to her task well and shaped as if she would be suited by a step up in trip. The 3 in front are decent animals rated 119, 135 (chasing) and 129 so in an event off level weights it certainly wasn't a bad performance. I'm presuming as a result of injury, Natural Spring was absent from the track for 14 months before making her reappearance last month in a Novices hurdle where she ran a really eye catching race. Although a slowly run contest, Natural Spring travelled extremely well into the race and he jumping was significantly better than before as in the end she was only beaten by 3L in the 2m5f contest. However, the winning distance by the odds on jolly was a bit kind on her as Captain Sunshine wasn't asked for an effort until the final flight when he quickened under the persuasion of the whip to score going away. Considering her handicap mark is only 107, the form of that race in this context looks very strong. The winner won on his only subsequent start in a Class 2 novices hurdle and has an official rating of 132 whilst the 2nd Hindon Road finished a length beaten 2nd by a useful Nicholls prospect who has an official handicap mark of 130. Moreover, prior to this Hindon Road finished 1.25L behind the excellent pair of Its A Gimme and Baby Shine off level weights and he certainly is a good yard stick. On the basis of her last effort, I don't think Natural Spring needs to improve much at all to win tomorrow's contest but she should definitely strip fitter for that run. She is stepped into handicap company for the first time tomorrow and I would be very surprised if she didn't prove good enough to win off her current mark at some stage in her career. Natural Spring represents Suzy Smith's only runner at Wincanton tomorrow, and although not in blistering form Smith had a winner earlier in the month so her horses certainly aren't in the wilderness. Denis O'Regan takes the ride and with the extra furlong looking sure to help as well as taking on easier opposition, if she's able to navigate this large field I am very confident of her running a massive race. I'll also be playing the RFC with Bathwick Man as he could easily be a plot. David Pipe's stable is sponsored by Bathwick Tyres who also sponsor this race. Given the horses name, I'm fairly sure they have some connection to him also and it looks like he could have been aimed at this race with what looks a decent handicap mark.
I also want to re-emphasise how massive I think the 14/1 about Mossey Joe is for the Champion Novice Chase at Punchestown on Tuesday is. This horse is a machine and although he'll have a difficult time beating Sir Des Champs I certainly think he is capable of doing so. Moreover, I can see one of the two Gigginstown horses being pulled as I can't see them taking each other on which would lead to the fields price collapsing. Even if the current field lined up, I would be shocked if Mossey Joe is out of the first three home and given that he's definitely going to start shorter on the day he represents the perfect bet to lay opportunity if your that way inclined.
I think you're over rating Mossey Joe ROTO and I think Sir Des Champs has been generally overhyped since Cheltenham. What did he beat in the Jewson? Very little. That was a weak race. Quite possibly the weakest novice race at the festival. I rate the RSA form significantly higher. Having said that it's a pretty weak field without the Gigginstown horses so he could sneak a place.
I was looking at that race closely last night ROTO and yours has a big chance. I wouldnt put anyone off backing it but the Lavelle pair are both expected to run big races. JOHNS GIFT at 16-1 is expected to put in a very bold show on his first outing for the yard and Kumasi Clan isnt harshly treated either.
Morning all just the one for me today FOOT SOLDIER 3.20 Curragh Showed some decent form as a 2yo for Aidan O'Brien and judging by his latest effort he looks capable of winning a handicap from a mark of 79. He got a slow start last time but finished well to get within 1 1/4 lengths of the reopposing Cnocan Diva. He meets that rival on 4lb better terms this afternoon and I am hoping if he doesn't blow the start today he can reverse places. Looking forward to watching Nephrite and Excelebration this afternooon. Both look to have simples tasks though.
ATR just had a interview with Suzy Smith- very intresting. She is going start takin her horses over to france this summer. But back to the subject in hand she is very confident about this horse today- only worry is such a big field. will be on her today best price now tho 9/2 along with her other big fancy over at stratford Emmas Legend (NAP)- 2 singles and a double
Like RV, it will be interesting to see how Nephrite looks as a 3 Y 0 specimen and also to see Excelebration begin under the guidance of Ballydoyle. Sadly, I suspect he will be mopping up prizemoney at odds like this for the most part of the season in Ireland, until Frankel tries 10f. I reluctantly oppose RV in the 3.20 though with Carefree Smile my idea of a small bet having shaped really nicely on reappearance over 11f at Dundalk recently after almost two years off the track. He travelled really nicely off the pace that day in a small field and I think the drop down to a mile, being by Invincible Spirit, will really suit. Think he has the speed to make an impace and the handicapper has given him a chance off a mark of 75, having raced consistently in the 80s in 2010.
Nice write up ROTO. Won't be playing at the prices though, only 4/1 with PP now. Might see what it opens up. Two for me today, singles and a double. Thanks for coming - 2.00 Strat The Boss - 2.40 And finally, COME ON EVERTON!
Maybe I am Quel but I think Mossey Joe is an absolute machine. They haven't found a way to settle him yet but he's still been able to come out on top in most races. He hasn't beaten much over fences to date but also hasn't been tested and I definitely think he's capable of giving SDC a big race if fully wound up after a break.
Zaminast should be good enough to see off Chrysanthemum in the 2.50 over 10f. 11/8 doesn't scream 'back me' but at the same time I can't see her being beat so actually it could be considered a good price.
Just with regards to Sir Des Champs- yes he is way too short in the AntePost Gold Cup market, but he is a very talnted animal, he will improve when he steps up to 3 miles, and he has a lot more still to come. The RSA is stronger form from this year but Sir Des Champs would have been right in the mix in that right because he will stay 3m very, very strongly. He is being educated gradually and is one to follow and hopefully enjoy watching progress.
4.10 Wincanton CORNISH BEAU 40/1, FTO for new stable Dr Newland who has a decent record with these types who was a reasonable performer on the flat.
Not sure why Excelebration is no longer trained by Marco Botti, after all he was their best horse last season. Joseph O'Brien ought to have a treble with him, Infanta Branca and Nephrite at The Curragh - with the last named horse, I really do think Born To Sea will reverse form in the 2,000 Guineas as he returned lame after his last run.
I think the fact that First Lieutenant has been diverted to the 2m Novice Chase whilst Sir Des Champs takes his place in the 3m tells you all you need to know. I think he'll improve considerably for the step up in trip. He's been crying out for it in my opinion.
Well done to the Blue ****e from a red here on getting a point at Old Toilet !!! Poor old bacon face fergie - priceless !!!! Probably go through an extra bottle of scotch now haha !!! Hope Citeh put about 8 past Wolves to make the game on the 30th worth watching !!!
Hopeful Zaminast can use the pace in the race to her advantage here against Chrysantheum who has never won at this trip.
