Daily Thread - Thursday 19th April

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Q

Quelesprit

Active Member
Jan 17, 2012
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36
Leeds
Ripon 3.20 Dickie Le Davoir 14/1

Each way bet. I put the old boy up last time out when he ran a funny old race. Never really put in it but eye catching in the last 2 furlongs when a stronger ride would have seen him place. He was never in a winning possy that day which explains the near hands and heels ride. I left the money behind th last day after a good punt so it's a retrieval mission.
 
Good luck Quel, he is a horse I like, but he is a mighty pain in the harris too. I am guessing that he will trade at something like three times his price in running.
 
Stick, heard anything re Pause and Clause? Backed this one a couple of times this season to no avail. Couldn't back him again without market support or inside word but his ever decreasing mark catches my eye eveytime. It's sad to see such a demise <ok>
 
Gorgeous George WashingTOON said:
Stick, heard anything re Pause and Clause? Backed this one a couple of times this season to no avail. Couldn't back him again without market support or inside word but his ever decreasing mark catches my eye eveytime. It's sad to see such a demise <ok>
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Dropped from 145 to 122 George and tried in a tongue tie and blinkers tomorrow George. Three miles stretches his stamina and then some I think. Last chance saloon tomorrow and I wont be taking a seat at the table. He is a horse in decline sadly but if he were ever going to win again then he certainly has the mark for it.

There are several "interesting" horses in that race and one that puzzles me is THE SLIOTAR. Has not stood much racing and due to an absence the handicapper has let him have a huge drop in the weights. he has some very decent form against some very decent animals and is interesting because Richard Johnson is on him and not the favourite. I could be reading too much into that at Tom O'Brien rode Allthekingshorses when he won on his latest outing.
 
2.25 Newmarket: Mariners Cross- Looks the type on breeding who will be physically strong in a 3 Y 0 maiden being by Dubawi and out of a winning hurdler. Godolphin did really well with this sire last season and in particular 1m maidens. Get the impression this will be one of the more forward horses in their maiden ranks and the Derby entry won't be by chance- I've a lot of respect for Al Zarooni newcomers, and the pedigree, timing of the maiden, and jockey booking suggests this might be a smart one. It is a maiden though, so its guesswork.

4.45 QUESTIONING 11/1 (NAP) A most unlucky loser at Doncaster I felt in a race that nowhere near suited him. This time there'll be pace, hopefully less traffic problems, and Gosden does really well at Newmarket with his milers at this time of year. Should be an improver on last years form, and I think Twice Over is lay of the day at 5/4. Extra furlong is in Questionings favour whereas this is a step down for Twice Over, who simply hasn't got the toe to win here over the straight course. Been a great animal though and ius a terrific yardstick.
 
Toppy like your analysis but Twice Over is about 10lbs ahead of these on official ratings and has won over course many times I believe - he loves the rowley mile (won over it as 2 yo) and his optimum distance is 1m 2f so only 1 furlong less - good luck any mate !!!!
 
DAYO10 said:
Toppy like your analysis but Twice Over is about 10lbs ahead of these on official ratings and has won over course many times I believe - he loves the rowley mile (won over it as 2 yo) and his optimum distance is 1m 2f so only 1 furlong less - good luck any mate !!!!
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Totally understand where you are coming from Dayo.

Ratings are one guide we can choose to take, but I prefer context. Here we have Twice Over making seasonal reappearance as a 7 year old against my selection (who might be rubbish!) who is an improving type with the promise of better over an extra furlong. Twice Over was not at his best early last year if I remember correctly and I prefer seeing him in mid-late Summer. I suspect he takes a little more work now he is older and have an incline he'll need this.

Just taking the angle of value improver vs short price 7 yr old on reappearance <ok>
 
Toppy, I like the Dunlop runner in that race Beatrice Aurora, who for me is another improver who could feature at the top table in the fillies and mares sphere. Dunlop seems to have started this season better than the last and this one is a fair price for the EW angle.

Add in the blog selections and I will be bankrupt once more <laugh>
 
MOST IMPROVED OUT OF CRAVEN.


Hope none of you have money on for 2000 Guineas. Fallons probably been laying it.
 
Morning all <ok>

Quite like the look of Mighty Ambition in the Craven (especially now Most Improved is out). The form of the Godolphin colt's maiden victory is looking fairly decent with the 2nd (Rewarded), 3rd (Model Pupil) and 5th (Aazif) having subsequently won. The son of Street Cry holds entries in the 2000 Guineas (1 of only 4 remaining Godolphin entries and the shortest of those in the current market, at 33/1), Dante and Derby.
 
Morning all

A couple from my alerts for this afternoon

SAUCY BROWN 4.30 Ripon

and

PERFECT STEP 5.20 Newmarket


I also like the looks of HANDSOME MAN 3.00 New, BORN TO SUPRISE 4.10 New, and TOPANGA CANYON 8.35 Wolves
 
Today looks dangerously easy. Hate it when I feel like this as I always end up losing <rofl>


1.50 N - Tassel expected to burn off her rivals. Hannon hardly every puts up confident reports on his website but seems to fancy this one. 11/10

3.00 N - Mickdaam should outclass this lot if running to the same level of form as when with Mike De Kock 11/4

3.35 N - Genki is a proven horse at the top level - will be disappointed if he can't beat Siruius Prospect and the rest 11/4

4.45 N - Twice Over is way better than this lot -the fact he is still in training says a lot imo - loves Newmarket 5 wins from 7 starts. 11/8

3.10 C - Tante Sisi - going the right way and a repeat of last months win at Newbury is good enough form - 7lbs rise is fair. 4/1


I bet none win <laugh>
 
I liked the look of Trumpet Major for the Craven and like the look of it even more now that Most Improved is out of it. He is also my dark horse for the Guineas - 25/1 still available for that. got to have an each way chance.

Ransom Note is overpriced for the 4.45 surely. He won this last year, there is not much between him and Twice Over on their last 2 runnings, age is against Twice Over and is unlikely that he will be 100% at this stage of the season
 
&#8206;3.20 Ripon

Jedward 7/1

This awfully named horse looks a huge price if the wide draw doesn't kill him. A recent recruit from the Charles O'Brien stable, I've been following him for a while and I think he is a very well handicapped horse, especially if Fahey gets a bit of improvement out of him. He'll relish the soft underfoot conditions and is possibly one of the most interesting recruits I've seen in a long time. He could easily end up improving 10-15lb if he appreciates the change of scenery.
 
Had a feeling you would stick that one up ROTO <ok>. Looks a very interesting purchase by Dr Marwan Koukash - I will have a go today at 13/2
 
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