Assessing the Hurricane

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Not had time to see the replay Toppy but our feeling watching him come down the hill was that Ruby had him too far off the pace. Binocular suffered the same fate as he was tracking HF. By the time the 2 of them were asked to race the winner and 2nd had already flown. Poor ride from Ruby is the impression we left the course with, would need to watch the replay tonight to see whether that is justified. Got to watch today's races first <ok>
 
I going to bore you all with my running performances at school in order to make a point. Over 800 yards I used to comfortably win all my races because I was able to lie up with the pace, step it up with 200/300 yards to go and sprint away in the last 100 yards, with a gear left.

On the basis of my "impressive" wins I was actually backed (real money) by school mates to win the County sports. The runners set off like the clappers and my legs suddenly started to feel heavier than usual and I got nowhere near the leaders. No sprint finish. Mates lost their money.
 
Quelesprit said:
It would not surprise me if Mullins adopts a similar training plan for The Fly that he has implemented with such great success with Quevega.
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Completely agree - would be a bit of a shame, but I could see it happening.

First things first: I have/had a complete horse-crush on Hurricane Fly and he was my biggest bet of the festival - there is no denying that I expected him to annihilate them.

However after arriving home from Cheltenham yesterday I have thought about this quite a lot. I think that the fly has an incredible ability to pick up the pace for a couple of furlongs and really can make for impressive victories through this... this is the first really hard galloping race he's run (against top opposition) since moving over from France though, and I think we've seen that he doesn't have the stamina to outrun the likes of Rock on Ruby.

For me, had this race been a tactical, slower race, like last year, he would have slaughtered them as he has done regularly.

Will I be backing him in the future? Yes.
Do I fancy him for the 2013 CH? No - similar tactics would produce similar results, and Rock on Ruby and Overturn will be there again to have a go at it again (whether Zarkandar, Spirit Son etc can pick up the pace is a different question).

At the end of the day, hats of to Rock on Ruby and Noel Feilhy - it ran fantastically and won deservedly. I'm a touch disappointed, but I don't feel cheated at all.
 
DanishPastry said:
However after arriving home from Cheltenham yesterday I have thought about this quite a lot. I think that the fly has an incredible ability to pick up the pace for a couple of furlongs and really can make for impressive victories through this... this is the first really hard galloping race he's run (against top opposition) since moving over from France though, and I think we've seen that he doesn't have the stamina to outrun the likes of Rock on Ruby.

For me, had this race been a tactical, slower race, like last year, he would have slaughtered them as he has done regularly.
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Danish you are spot on there. Yesterday's race was run almost 4 seconds quicker than last years indicating, for me, that they started turning the taps on from further out this year and it was a much stronger gallop along the back straight and down the hill. That drew the sting out of Hurricane Fly and the front pair just kept galloping to the line. Try as he could, HF couldn't pick them up.
 
....Or we are overthinking this and he had an off day. Time will tell.
 
OddDog said:
Not had time to see the replay Toppy but our feeling watching him come down the hill was that Ruby had him too far off the pace. Binocular suffered the same fate as he was tracking HF. By the time the 2 of them were asked to race the winner and 2nd had already flown. Poor ride from Ruby is the impression we left the course with, would need to watch the replay tonight to see whether that is justified. Got to watch today's races first <ok>
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Ruby wasn't at fault at all, its not his fault HF didn't pick up the leaders. They went fast infront so hold up tactics should have been ideal:biggrin:
 
Last years Neptune is holding up incredibly well.

Rock On Ruby wins the Champion Hurdle.
First Lieutenant almost won the RSA and may have had he not ran keen for a mile and a half.
So Young hammers Trifolium who has run second in the Supreme Novices.

Maybe they are just an incredibly strong group of horses and maybe that was coupled with the right tactics being deployed that led to the Fly's downfall. Do I think Overturn ran to a 170+ yesterday? No. I don't think he's capable of that. If that's the case then the Fly has run below his rating. Maybe he ran below his rating because he got fazed by the prelims? Maybe he just didn't click fully on the day? Maybe it was some frankly cracking tactics? I know that's simplistic but that's basically what it boils down to for me.
 
... or maybe HF is not a 170+ horse after all. I don't know; just filling in the options.
 
If Oscar Whisky is beaten by Big Bucks tommorow, then I bet connections will regret not running him in the Champion Hurdle. I think he would of given Rock On Ruby a real race off that pace. Even Thousand Stars could have played a part had he been in the race:biggrin:
 
There were some massive form turnarounds in the race:

Overturn v HF (18 lengths v 2011 Champion running)
Rock On Ruby v Binocular (7 lengths v Christmas Hurdle)
Overturn v Binocular (14 lengths v Christmas Hurdle) although Fighting Fifth form confirmed

Binocular is such an inconsistent performer that you can't use him as a reliable form guide - rarely runs two races to the same level.

The turnaround between HF and Overturn is the interesting one - Overturn came to the race this year a fresh horse running on his own merits. Last year he was having his 3rd run in the space of 8 weeks (the first 2 on softish ground which wouldn't have suited) and he also was running to set the race up for Peddlers Cross last year.

I would love to see a comparison of the sectionals from this years race and last years because there seemed much more pace on from halfway down the back straight. Hurricane Fly wasn't able to travel like the "wrath of god" - he was out of his comfort zone halfway down the hill and although he gained some ground up the home straight ROR was going away again after the last.

In the immediate aftermath I was looking for excuses but at the end of the day the strong pace and resolute gallop of ROR proved too much for HF and he was beaten by the better horse on the day.
 
I had the same thoughts about Oscar Whiskey Shergs but I suppose they weren't to know it was going to pan out as it did.
 
why isn't Rock on Ruby a 170+ horse? I think I have to consider him as that with Overturn running to his normal level.
 
Moscow Flyer. A ten year old who lost his Champion Chase crown to Azertuoip in 2004- the young horse, with the world at his feet. YET 12 months later and it's Moscow Flyer and it's 'Moscow Flyer is MAGNIFICENT and he's regained his crown'. First horse to do so. Few, if any would have predicted that at his defeat to the hands of Mr Nicholls new star Azertuoip.

Kauto Star. 'Destroyed by Denman' in the 2008 Gold Cup. Yet 12 months later and we witness the FIRST ever horse to regain his crown in a virtuso performance.

Defeat at the Festival only makes the successes taste sweeter... For that reason I wouldn't rule Hurricane Fly off. Ten Grade Ones. I really, really wouldn't rule out another magnificent Cheltenham return ;)
 
beeforsalmon said:
Moscow Flyer. A ten year old who lost his Champion Chase crown to Azertuoip in 2004- the young horse, with the world at his feet. YET 12 months later and it's Moscow Flyer and it's 'Moscow Flyer is MAGNIFICENT and he's regained his crown'. First horse to do so. Few, if any would have predicted that at his defeat to the hands of Mr Nicholls new star Azertuoip.

Kauto Star. 'Destroyed by Denman' in the 2008 Gold Cup. Yet 12 months later and we witness the FIRST ever horse to regain his crown in a virtuso performance.

Defeat at the Festival only makes the successes taste sweeter... For that reason I wouldn't rule Hurricane Fly off. Ten Grade Ones. I really, really wouldn't rule out another magnificent Cheltenham return ;)
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Moscow Flyer fell, he wasn't beaten on merit!

Kauto Star only regained his crown because his conquerer Denman had a heart complaint, and hadn't fully recovered from it when KS beat him!

No ones saying HF can't win next year, I just don't think he's a 7/1 shot, considering he's injury prone, will be 9 and was seemingly beaten on merit:biggrin:
 
Well if I'm still here next year Beef, I guess Shergar will lay you HF ante post in my comp. Might be tempted myself nearer the time.
 
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