Assessing the Hurricane

Fascinating read that.
Funny but I had a (fairly drunk) chat with a few mates on Tuesday before the race and we were all pretty much agreed that the Irish races are genertally run at a slow pace and he picks up and goes through the gears to win impressively we weren't sure he'd ever done that off a strong pace, so but does sitting 6 lengths behind a confirmed stayer then make sense ?
He was never going to outstay ROR but he could easily have gone past him with a burst that it would have taken ROR plenty of time to have got back up - but the Fly had to be on the heels of ROR.
I made it a poor ride from Ruby at the time and I still do now.
Reading the sectional comparisons from 2011 renewal really do make fascinating reading especially when compared to the times of Al Ferof - and whilst we all knew the 2nd, 3rd and 4th from that race were stayers we pretty much all assumed it was a quality performance from the Fly when the truth is probably very different.
Good find that Zen...

 

Grizzly/Zenyatta, that forum link was very interesting, but when sectional times and race times are mentioned, I become a little cynical, albeit ignorant as well.
I've always felt that times had overall minimal weight in assessing a race, although I admit they are an 'indicator.' If they had any real significance, then Workforce would have beaten Sea Bird by a distance, based on their Epsom Derby times; and a selling plater would not have broken a six furlong track record; let alone an Ascot Gold Cup winner (Sagaro) break Ascot's six furlong track record- having already run 14 furlongs in the 2.5 mile race prior to doing it.
Yes, I admit Hurricane Fly is an enigma, although his overall rercord and consistency are admirable.
It has always been easy to see him as a "flat track specialist;" or a horse who can use a devastating turn of foot in- perhaps when 'allowed to do so.'
For many, his Cheltenham win last year dispelled the doubts about his capacity to travel and cope with the hurly-burly of the Champion Hurdle.
Yet aren't racegoers to keen and ready to go overboard about any horse who hits the limelight? Peddler's Cross is a classic example of that!
My view is that modern horses are kept in cotton wool and, where the top hurdling division is concerned, the strength in depth is abysmal and the consistency dire. It may be a long time before you see a champion hurdler keep his crown- let alone do the hat-trick! But that's another issue.
I don't know whether HF was outstayed last week; or whether Ruby rode a bad race- he's laid further out of his ground than that previously, without any problems.
Maybe he just didn't show his form- and that statistic carries more weight than most others, given the inconsistencies and in-and-out performances I've already referred to.
Re. Rock On Ruby, there's nothing wrong with his consistency, and his performances this season have been very good. I felt his credentials were way ahead of Nicholls'other runners.
Yes, most people would feel his form against First Lieutenant, Oscar's well, etc, at last year's Festival did not read good enough to win a Champion.
Nonetheless, he's improved since then and maybe the Champion doesn't take much winning nowadays. Recent renewals prove that.
Next year's may not take much winning either, but there's nothing from this year's field deserves to be favourite ahead of Rock On Ruby-at this stage.
Furthermore, Cheltenham is a 'law unto itself' where the best horses win- and lose!

 

The thing I found strange was Hurricane just did not quicken this time. There was no headway on the bridle- he was off the bridle some way out. That either means the breakneck pace did for him, or he wasn't right.


We won't know the answer until heis subjected to those conditions again.


I'm still not sure.


I definitely think he's more at home on ground with some cut. I don't think stamina is a problem in that sense. The thing is, its not easy to quicken when horses have gone pissballing off at the front- you then have to stay strongly and he didnt this time.

I'm intrigued to see what happens next, and indeed what price he goes off.

 

Last years Champion Hurdle time was slower than that of Al Ferof in the Supreme, were as this years Champion Hurdle time was 3 seconds faster than that of Cinders and Ashes in the supreme. That's enough evidence for me to believe Hurricane Fly just didn't have anything left in the tank turning in.

Sometimes its difficult to accept, but maybe HF was just never as good as most of us thought. He may be the fastest horse, but his rivals have now found his achillies heel.

That's why Istabraq was so great, he had the stamina of Yeats, the gears of Dayjur, and the hurdling technique of Colin Jackson

 

Spot on that for me Shergs. I think HF is not quite the horse some people thought. For me this is confirmed by the proximity of Binocular to him. That said, I think they'll try and take a different approach with him next year, maybe get a couple more runs into him during the year. Maybe they were trying a Quevega with him, but I think next years Champion could be a strong one so they'll need a different tactic for me.

 

It boils down to a question of toughness. As RP stated in its pre-Cheltenham reviews, Hurricane Fly is, in a way, fragile, and so it is to Willie Mullins' great credit that he has got so much out of this most-certainly talented racehorse. To get him to the racecourse in top nick, especially when it's the UK side of the pond, must be a hell of a job. It is just on the point of toughness that Hurricane Fly will never be an Istabraq, a Hatton's Grace, a Persian War, or even a Bula IMHO. He was probably not in top condition for this year's CH, for whatever the reason. You could actually see he was a bit warm just before the start (with Ruby looking glummer than usual), and so were these hindsight pointers?

 

I have no idea whether he was right or not but to say that him being warm at the start was perhaps a worrying pointer must be wide of the mark. The horse was in a white lather and dripping with sweat last year and still won. I think if anything the opposite might be true. Willie Mullins did comment after his Irish Champion win that he was concerned about how relaxed he was in the paddock. Perhaps he has settled but lost his edge as a result?

No idea, and we will probably have no idea until after next year's race, and, even then, only if he is subjected to the same test. I think it is hard to ignore the analysis in that post in light of what happened. It just fits so well that it is difficult to see past it.

 

Zenyatta: My apologies, I failed to recall his condition before the off last year. Guess I was concentrating on Menorah, who bombed-out royally and is continuing to do so!
Hmm, so we'll have to put things on hold in the hope he does re-appear next year. I really hope he does and proves this year's run was all wrong. Thanks for correcting me there.