Assessing the Hurricane

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TopClass

TopClass

Well-Known Member
Jun 22, 2011
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[video=youtube;yNvEx04fN7o]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yNvEx04fN7o[/video]



How did Overturn manage to get 2nd in a Champion Hurdle? What was different between this year and last year?


Are we dealing with totally different conditions, are Mullins horses overcooked? He looked so sensational in the Irish Champion that I think he ran below par here today. I think fast ground has totally blunted him. Binocular is what he is- short of the top level.

Rock On Ruby- most improved horse of the last 12 months?
 
Top Class, like most people, I expected Hurricane Fly to win, but the victory of Rock On Ruby was no great shock.
Yes, you can point to last year's Champion Hurdle and question Overturn's improved performance this year, but maybe McCain's horse benefitted from a long rest- which he hasn't always had between races. Furthermore, you can't always cross reference form to a particular horse- neat pigeon holes don't usually exist.
I do believe HF ran below his best but nonetheless, if you take him out of the race, the winner had form second to none and so many factors in his favour eg. slaughtering his lightly weighted and in form stablemate, Empire Levant, giving him lumps of weight in a good handicap; an unlucky second to Binocular on a fast track at Kempton; undoubted stamina and favoured by an almost certain 'breakneck Champion Hurdle,' and a fast time -especially with Overturn in the field; more than average improvement since last year; tremendously consistent and resolute.
As I said the other day, I could not understand why ROR was being offered at 16/1 - as opposed to Binocular at 5/1. It just did not make sense. In fairness, the four lengths he won by flattered the opposition on the day- he seriously idled coming to the last.
Ultimately the gallop found out Binocular, and the fierce gallop (and possibly drying ground) didn't help HF's easy rhythm.
Whatever else, I believe Rock On Ruby is a better hurdler now than was Peddler's Cross in last year's race.

Furthermore, the 10/1 on offer for next year's race is very generous, albeit ridiculous at this stage.
Make no mistake, this is a tough and classy horse and, if the frailties of HF keep him away from next year's renewal, Rock On Ruby could be a short price himself come next March.
 
Easier to assess my ante post bets - utter ****e - a lesson learned, no such thing as a cert.
However I really am struggling to assess the race or Hurricane's performance. Brampour was a fast finishing 5th 1 length behind HF.
Did Overturn do anything different to what he did last year in trying to set it up for Peddlers Cross? HF ran free for half of the race last year too. I thought he looked far more relaxed this time. Ruby gave them a lead like he always does, however when he asked HF to go and win his race he just didn't. No excuses but just didn't run to his normal level IMHO.
 
Every time HF has run on good going his time has been slower than standard. Last year he was nearly 3 secs slower than standard and all out to beat PC. This year the pace was stronger and the time was nearly 1 sec faster than standard. I have a slight suspicion that had it been run at a steadier pace he may have won and looked impressive in the process.

I know times can be meaningless but, at the end of the day, on any given day's conditions there is a time that a horse can not beat and the slower the race the more horses stand a chance. It is when the race is slower than this that the winner can look impressive. However, when forced to keep up in a faster run race they may struggle at the sharp end.

It's interesting that Rock On Ruby has never been in a race run in faster than standard (but only 2 of his races have been on good going) so maybe we have just seen him in his ideal conditions for the first time. Overturn has run faster than standard 4 times so clearly likes to burn it up.

I'm not trying to discredit HF but it hasn't escaped me that although he had won his last 7 races, in 4 of those he had Solwhit in second. In the other 3, one was last year's CH where he was all out to beat PC, and in the other two he had his stable mate in 2nd/3rd. with Oscars Well splitting them. Although HF won easily OW was also comfortably beaten by Thousand Stars on another occasion.
Last year at Cheltenham Rock On Ruby was beaten sh hd by First Lieutenant with Oscars Well 7l further back.

On reflection I am beginning to think that HF has been over hyped due to the way he has beaten inferior competition and the end to end gallop found him out today.

I may be wrong. Maybe he had an off day. But the doubt is there and there are (sort of) form lines to support my doubt.

We may just have to wait and see if he bounces back. Or have we just learned how to get him beaten. In many ways I'm hoping he will bounce back and dispel my doubt.
 
That wasnt the fly at his best imho. Be it the ground, the pace of the race, the jockey, the lack of runs this season, something else ect that wasn't the same horse we saw cruise up on the bridle last year. That said, I didn't have Rock on Ruby down as the horse that was going to beat him if he was to get beat so fair play to that. I think the relentless gallop and the spring ground played right into his hands. The champion hurlde is a funny race though (remember Punjabi!!) and today was the 7th odds on favourite to be turned over in the race. On all known form I don't know how but well done to connections of Rock on Ruby he won very easy.
 
For me if everything wass right zarkandar would have one never traveled well and gained 8 lengths at the end I bet hurricane fly but only horse I was I pressed with for future referance was zarkandar ! Well done to rock on ruby
 
Mick, Zarkandar is a good horse and hopefully he'll improve. Yet second season 5 year olds tend to be disastrous in the Champion Hurdle. Apart from Katchit (who won a poor renewal), I'm struggling to think of another one since Kirriemuir and Persian War- and they were both top drawer.
Yes, Zarkandar stayed on really well, but that tends to happen in a fast run Champion Hurdle- when the tongues start hanging out. Nonetheless, I think Nicholls has got two good hurdlers there- and I'd like to see him run them a bit more often.<ok>
 
Hurricane Fly done what is completely unlike what he normally does- he had an off day and he was beaten. That was all. He's won 8 Grade Ones in a row (10 altogether I think) so he should be picking these horses up and carrying them. Something was clearly amiss, I can't put my finger on it but most horses do at some time run poorly, seemingly without reason. Since November 2009 he hadn't- he'd won 8 races in a row, all at the top level.

The ground was definitely not a factor. The general consensus from the jockey reports were the ground was on the soft side of good. So it can't have been ground as it wasn't dramatically different from last year.

Can't have been the pace in the race. Hurricane Fly won the Hattons Grace on heavy over 2m 4f so stamina can't be an issue.

He's run a stone below his best- I expect the rating boys will have him running considerably below his best als. But credit the winner-on that particular day in March 2012 the best horse won.

However it'd take a long time to convince me Rock on Ruby or Overturn are better horses than Hurricane Fly and I certainly haven't lost belief in him at all bacause of a completely out of character performance for which I can't offer an explanation. Maybe some of the stables horses aren't in tip top order. I know some days I feel better than others and I can't explain that either. C'est la vie...
 
It's easy to make excuses for him, but as Ron implys that was the fastest pace HF had ever had to contend with, and he was found out, simple as that. The best horse won the race:biggrin:
 
Don't be a sore loser beef, Hurricane Fly was well beaten by a better horse. He didnt power up the hill like Rock On Ruby did thanks to the fast pace :biggrin:
 
The Fly is 15/2 in a place for next years race.

I've taken it for a couple of each way points. He'll not start that price next year.
 
Quelesprit said:
The Fly is 15/2 in a place for next years race.

I've taken it for a couple of each way points. He'll not start that price next year.
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That's a terrible price first of all the horse is a sick note, so might not even make the race, and secondly he will be 9 next year:biggrin:
 
As always you have to say the best horse won, and well done to Rock On Ruby...

But what puzzles me is that Ruby Walsh must have thought that Hurricane Fly was on form as he gave the front 2 a good 5-7 lenghts lead at the start and at the final turn was still 5 lenghts behind. He must have thought that he could pull that back...

Although when push came to shove Hurricane Fly never looked like getting it back i doubt if he had been running 2 lenghts behind he would have passed Rock On Ruby...

Cant be having 15/2 for the Fly next year either...
 
finally got to watch yesterday's coverage. The best horse on the day won, he travelled amazingly and got a great two off of overturn who clearly had a game plan. i also saw that ruby told mullins that hurricane fly didn't travel. it's possible he just had an off day, it happens. don't write him off just yet guys i'm convinced he's a better horse than overturn and probably also rock on ruby.
 
King Shergar said:
Don't be a sore loser beef, Hurricane Fly was well beaten by a better horse. He didnt power up the hill like Rock On Ruby did thanks to the fast pace :biggrin:
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I don't think BoS is a sore loser at all, his points are relevant and factual. Since I picked the wrong one two years running (Menorah and Zarkandar) not much I can brag about! As I said yesterday, Zarkandar hit the mother of all flat spots at the top of the hill. and so it was amazing he finished a charging fourth. He will be better for it. Menorah (now chasing), well, all-in-all a huge disappointment, in every respect. I do agree with Tamerlo, in that, on reflection, Rock On Ruby had some huge pieces of prior form to its name. What a pity I chose to pass them over!
The chicken counting was well and truly correct last year, as Famous duly reminded all of us, but this year? The chicken count got all buggered-up. This was not the real Hurricane Fly; one could almost spot it parading before the start? He was quite warm, and Ruby quite glum?

But, well done Rock On Ruby, and Overturn too! <applause>
 
I can't imagine the pace set by overturn was any quicker than last year, he was setting the race up for Peddlar's last year. They just didn't get to the front runners. I wouldn't write the Fly off yet
 
Shergar/Quelesprit....Shergs points tend to make sense- and not many horses come back to claim their crown.
I must admit that, despite HF's undeniable consistency (only lost 2 hurdle races with Mullins and placed in them), I find it hard to know where to place him in any 'hall of fame.'
If you examine the records of top hurdlers since Istabraq, their achievements and consistency don't make good reading. Add to that the dismal constitution of many of them- in only competing a few times each year- and what do you have? Theoretically a Champion Hurdle that's up for grabs each year.
Unfortunately the novices don't seem to "go on" and few really good flat horses go over timber nowadays. French breds seem to be taking the limelight in many ways.
With HF, we were all 'brainwashed' with that outing in Ireland- so easily did he win. Yet Rock On Ruby's form this year was cast iron and, whereas he has flourished since last season, his comparable opponent from last year, Oscar's Well, has gone nowhere/downhill. Hence what did Hurricane Fly really achieve in Ireland in beating that horse? The fact that Unaccompanied and Thousand Stars ran poorly at Leopardstown merely highlights the inconsistencies in the top hurdling division.
For me, Rock On Ruby had similar credentials to Menorah last year but, whereas Menorah failed, ROR's stamina really came into play yesterday.
Personally, I think it's a pity, in a way, that Hurricane Fly ran yesterday. I would have put a very big bet on ROR in his absence- I was so sure he would beat everything else.
But that's racing- sometimes you're right and other times you're wrong. I paid the price for sitting on the fence.
 
It would not surprise me if Mullins adopts a similar training plan for The Fly that he has implemented with such great success with Quevega.
 
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