Daily Thread - Sunday 11th March

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Q

Quelesprit

Active Member
Jan 17, 2012
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Leeds
2.45 Naas Flemenstar

I was hugely impressed by his run in the Irish Arkle so have taken the 13/8 about him tomorrow. He's not a certain stayer but I do think he should be favourite at around the even money mark so I think there's a little value to be had at current prices. I wouldn't rule out Bog Warrior or Rathlin but just think Flemenstar has done enough so far to take this. I don't think he's finished improving as a chaser.

Good luck with your bets boys.
 
GENERAL TING 4.25 M Rasen 20-1 Betfred Every chance tomorrow following a promising run last time out. 20-1 is way too big! Cant see that price being around for long!
 
Quelesprit said:
2.45 Naas Flemenstar

I was hugely impressed by his run in the Irish Arkle so have taken the 13/8 about him tomorrow. He's not a certain stayer but I do think he should be favourite at around the even money mark so I think there's a little value to be had at current prices. I wouldn't rule out Bog Warrior or Rathlin but just think Flemenstar has done enough so far to take this. I don't think he's finished improving as a chaser.

Good luck with your bets boys.
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So you dont think Frisco Depot has a chance then Quel....LMAO

Good luck with Flemenstar. Probably the best three horses not going to the Festival...! Bog Warrior for me.
 
I think tomorrow is a race where, at current prices, you could make a strong case tha the front three are all value plays. At the end of the day Bog Warrior beat Flemenstar in November so 11/10 might look huge based on that. Any of the 3 could win. I'm just hoping Flemenstar has improved enough since November.
 
stick said:
GENERAL TING 4.25 M Rasen 20-1 Betfred Every chance tomorrow following a promising run last time out. 20-1 is way too big! Cant see that price being around for long!
Click to expand...

BS are still offering 4/1 Dusky Bob. That looks good value to me
 
My selections for tomorrow are as follows - light plays on these to try to get some free money for next week:
MARKET RASEN 16:25 Low Gales @ 6/1 (GP)
WARWICK 16:05 Vin De Roy @ 7/1 (GP)
WARWICK 14:05 General Kutuzov @ 13/2 (GP) (NAP)
NAAS 16:20 Roi Du Mee @ 6/1 (GP)
NAAS 15:15 King Vuvuzela @ 8/1 (GP)

Think they all have great chances for various reasons particularly General Kutuzov who seems to be on a good mark.
 
Have to say I am completely gutted by looking at the exchanges at the moment. Have backed Sir Des Champs for the RSA at different intervals over the last few months, odds ranging from 27/1 to 55/1.

He now trades at 6 for the Jewson and 11 for the RSA, despite being backed into 5s for the RSA days ago.


Mullins at every preview has said he sees him as an RSA horse.


Michael O'Leary "prefers him to run in the Jewson" simply because they already have First Lieutenant for the RSA.


First Lieutenant, beaten by De Valira, blundered and pulled up behind Bog Warrior, and comprehensively beaten by Last Instalment.

Sir Des Champs, winning every race he has ever run in over 2m 5f with a late run and staying on strongly, is a lazy horse who only does enough, often looks outpaced, and is viewed by his trainer as a 3 miler, most pundits agree the 3 miles will bring out further improvement, yet he has to remain in Grade 2 company simply because the underachieving FL, who has done nothing over fences, has a reputation based solely on a Neptune Hurdle win last season.

Have to say it is knarking me so badly at the moment. Losing on antepost doesnt bother me if your horse is not up to scratch or is injured. But when you have a horse who everyone including Willie Mullins knows is a 3 miler gets prevented from having a shot at a Grade 1, you start to quickly fall out of love with the game.

O'leary is simply a number cruncher and is playing percentages, which for me is treating the horses as a number, as opposed to individual strenghts and weaknesses.
 
TopClass said:
Have to say I am completely gutted by looking at the exchanges at the moment. Have backed Sir Des Champs for the RSA at different intervals over the last few months, odds ranging from 27/1 to 55/1.

He now trades at 6 for the Jewson and 11 for the RSA, despite being backed into 5s for the RSA days ago.


Mullins at every preview has said he sees him as an RSA horse.


Michael O'Leary "prefers him to run in the Jewson" simply because they already have First Lieutenant for the RSA.


First Lieutenant, beaten by De Valira, blundered and pulled up behind Bog Warrior, and comprehensively beaten by Last Instalment.

Sir Des Champs, winning every race he has ever run in over 2m 5f with a late run and staying on strongly, is a lazy horse who only does enough, often looks outpaced, and is viewed by his trainer as a 3 miler, most pundits agree the 3 miles will bring out further improvement, yet he has to remain in Grade 2 company simply because the underachieving FL, who has done nothing over fences, has a reputation based solely on a Neptune Hurdle win last season.

Have to say it is knarking me so badly at the moment. Losing on antepost doesnt bother me if your horse is not up to scratch or is injured. But when you have a horse who everyone including Willie Mullins knows is a 3 miler gets prevented from having a shot at a Grade 1, you start to quickly fall out of love with the game.

O'leary is simply a number cruncher and is playing percentages, which for me is treating the horses as a number, as opposed to individual strenghts and weaknesses.
Click to expand...

It's unfortunate when antepost wagers go under,the PC backers had the same fate and the GC punters could yet face similar angst.

The message is clear for next year and we have all learned that supporting anything antepost for the Arkle or RSA is fraught with danger due to the needless addition of the G2 Jewson.

To describe O'Leary as "simply a number cruncher" and "treating the horses as a number" is a little unfair.

He puts loads into the game,as an owner,breeder and sponsor.His acquisition policy is a lifeline to many smaller breeders in Ireland where he pays top dollar for PTP recruits.This allows these smaller operations to expand and improve the overall quality in that sphere.

It is no secret that LI was his number one for the RSA along with FL,one suspects the Jewson was always going to be the targer for SDC,regardless of what WM said,unless both the afore mentioned were scratched.

Giggenstown have no problem racing their best against each other when they are with different trainers.For example in the 2.45 at Nass today he runs the highly promising Bog Warrior and Rathlin against each other in a four runner G3.In the Ten Up recently they had 3 of the six runners.

The reason Bog Warrior and Rathlin are not going to Cheltenham is because the owner doesn't see it as being in their interests at this stage in their respective careers,despite the obvious claims they would have.I don't think that is indicative of someone who merely treats his horses as numbers.

I think the decision,if confirmed,is perfectly rational.If he wins both races he will be fully justified and even if he doesn't his decision to be represented in both races makes perfect sense.

I see bigger ogre's in the sport than Michael O'Leary.
 
Dexter said:
It's unfortunate when antepost wagers go under,the PC backers had the same fate and the GC punters could yet face similar angst.

The message is clear for next year and we have all learned that supporting anything antepost for the Arkle or RSA is fraught with danger due to the needless addition of the G2 Jewson.

To describe O'Leary as "simply a number cruncher" and "treating the horses as a number" is a little unfair.

He puts loads into the game,as an owner,breeder and sponsor.His acquisition policy is a lifeline to many smaller breeders in Ireland where he pays top dollar for PTP recruits.This allows these smaller operations to expand and improve the overall quality in that sphere.

It is no secret that LI was his number one for the RSA along with FL,one suspects the Jewson was always going to be the targer for SDC,regardless of what WM said,unless both the afore mentioned were scratched.

Giggenstown have no problem racing their best against each other when they are with different trainers.For example in the 2.45 at Nass today he runs the highly promising Bog Warrior and Rathlin against each other in a four runner G3.In the Ten Up recently they had 3 of the six runners.

The reason Bog Warrior and Rathlin are not going to Cheltenham is because the owner doesn't see it as being in their interests at this stage in their respective careers,despite the obvious claims they would have.I don't think that is indicative of someone who merely treats his horses as numbers.

I think the decision,if confirmed,is perfectly rational.If he wins both races he will be fully justified and even if he doesn't his decision to be represented in both races makes perfect sense.

I see bigger ogre's in the sport than Michael O'Leary.
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<applause> Excellent points, very well made Dexter. Very looking forward to their Bog Warrier today.
 
I see both sides of the argument.

I think what Toppy is saying is that if Gigginstown didn't have First Lieutenant in the RSA then Sir Des Champs would be running in the race, no doubt about it. Therefore, the fact that he might head to the Jewson is to some extent diverting him, because of another horse.

It makes sense for Gigginstown but perhaps isn't the best option for the horse. The trainer seems to much prefer the RSA option from what I can tell.
 
Owners and trainers 'juggling' horses for different targets though has always been part of the sport. Boston Bob, Simonsig, Peddlers Cross etc are recent examples. No doubt the expanded festival is placing even more importance on this aspect and it's one reason why ante-post betting is something I don't do!
 
My post did sound harsh overall and perhaps unfair reflection. I was trying to refer just to the SDC/FL debate but I was a bit hammered when I got in last night so couldnt communicate what I wanted <laugh>

My frustration is that one horse has really blossomed over fences and one has looked really awkward. Yet they wont let go of First Lieutenant and still cling to a Neptune Hurdle win.

Mullins knows SDC is a 3 miler but my argument is that O'Leary is stopping the horses natural progression by forcing him into the Jewson simply so he has a representative and in his eyes, a chance to win 2 races. That was what I meant by number crunching. He says in his interview that he lets his trainers decide where they go, but youd have to say that looks unlikely here.
 
TopClass said:
but I was a bit hammered when I got in last night so couldnt communicate what I wanted
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Would never have guessed looking at the time of post I agree with you that SDC would definitely be suited better by the longer race but think Dexter's made a really well reasoned argument with some excellent points, especially about Gigginstown being such major investors to the NH game, especially for smaller Irish breeders. At the current time we should be thankful that such investors are still around as there can be little doubt the market has taken a major hammering over the last few years and I'd expect to see less and less young NH horses coming through because of this. Without people like Gigginstown, JP McManus, regardless of our own opinions on them, the NH game would be in a bigger decline now than it already is.
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All in as expected except Thousand Stars. Some doubt whether he goes for the World Hurdle or whether he has had a problem.

Some rumours that he has 'gone a bit sour', so it might be that he isn't there at all.
 
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