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Tips / Bets My World Cup Bets
- Thread starter BackO'TheNet
- Start date
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There’s a lot of money in this tournament.
The size has given a far bigger spread on teams for last 16 on and if you pick right can make fortunes.
Already playing with winnings after yesterday and the party hasn’t started yet, once hits 3 games a day there’s a packet to be made.
The size has given a far bigger spread on teams for last 16 on and if you pick right can make fortunes.
Already playing with winnings after yesterday and the party hasn’t started yet, once hits 3 games a day there’s a packet to be made.
This morning's Special Offers @Blond Bombshell
- Brazil to score the first goal v Morocco - EVS from 4/9
- Scotland to score the first goal v Haiti - EVS from 2/5
- Brazil to score the first goal v Morocco - EVS from 4/9
- Scotland to score the first goal v Haiti - EVS from 2/5
Some good boost on Xhaka.
1 tackle/1 SOT 3/1 (he plays more advanced for Switzerland) feels like free money that.
1 tackle/1 SOT 3/1 (he plays more advanced for Switzerland) feels like free money that.
Stuck a few bob on Portugal to win it, I think Brazil will do well under Ancelotti as well.
Don’t fancy England at all, we have looked awful recently.
Don’t fancy England at all, we have looked awful recently.
Had this last night.
Switzerland not scoring over 1.5 knocked me out of £140 from £10. Brazil not winning ruined another 8/1 builder for £225 back and McTominay not having a shot on target another 9/1 for £100 back.
Paddypower actually pay out a shot on target for hitting the woodwork which is frustrating.
£340 up on the World Cup so far though can’t complain. Had a flutter on in play player stuff in Switzerland and took £180 profit. Embolo shots created and Vargas foul involvements were easy money.
Not much value in Germany game but like the look of this double.
Juninho Bacuna 2+ fouls
Havertz 2+ shots created.
Potentially adding 1+ Kimmich tackle to boost the odds slightly to 2/1.
Switzerland not scoring over 1.5 knocked me out of £140 from £10. Brazil not winning ruined another 8/1 builder for £225 back and McTominay not having a shot on target another 9/1 for £100 back.
Paddypower actually pay out a shot on target for hitting the woodwork which is frustrating.
£340 up on the World Cup so far though can’t complain. Had a flutter on in play player stuff in Switzerland and took £180 profit. Embolo shots created and Vargas foul involvements were easy money.
Not much value in Germany game but like the look of this double.
Juninho Bacuna 2+ fouls
Havertz 2+ shots created.
Potentially adding 1+ Kimmich tackle to boost the odds slightly to 2/1.
Attachments
Cashed it out for £85 at half time mate, think it won on Musiala about 5 mins into the second half but cash out was pretty much full value so took it early.
I agree that you are betting against yourself but also covering yourself at the same time, especially if you cant split the 2 horses (done it myself a few times).
However, in the example you give you have bet £20 but if one wins you will collect £25 (£15 win and your £10 stake), so this would give you £5 profit, not a £5 loss.
Yes you are right marra.....let me explain in a few hours time. I think my theory and wording was crap. I'm on my way home. I'll shine a better light on things from what some of the Professional gamblers preach....thanks for your reply though
Problem with football is it’s a ‘3 horse race’ as draws exist.
Covering your bets is very difficult unless you are happy to accept ‘stake back’ as alternative.
Covering your bets is very difficult unless you are happy to accept ‘stake back’ as alternative.
Thank you for your response mate. Please let me explain.
For those who were members of our original BBC 606 Site years ago, myself and another guy explained this. He explained it all much better than me.
Before you read this, remember that this a Professional Gamblers theory who advised to not to back both very short joint favourites in the same race.
Okay, lets say you fancy a flutter in a horse race. You see joint favs at about 6/4. The race has 12 runners, but you think that backing both joint favs with £10 stakes at 6/4 is a good idea because you think you have a good chance to collect £5 if one horse wins the race. Why is that a bad decision?
..... because only one horse can win this race, meaning that backing two very short priced favs against each other is folly.
£20 to collect a £5 profit spoils the whole ethos of exciting and and enjoyment of a flutter.
If folk agree that the mathematical theory is the lead, then you will lose your house one day.
DON'T take the mathematical theory please.......because if both favs don't win, you will be homeless!
UNLESS - you are having a fun bet on outsiders with small enjoyment stakes,...not short favs, then you will enjoy your flutter.
We all back more than one horse in the Grand National, yeah?......and that is enjoyment by the way, right?.......and that is mint !
But remember this theory is from Pro's, not from me.
.........................................................................................
I have just found his advice wording -
..........................................................................................
Money loss V's money gain V's enjoyment V's funds. -
To those who may think this is boring, then I agree 100%
This advice is from a gambling group, who swear by guidance.
If you back two horses in the same race, it is only beneficial financially if the odds of both of your selections are generous, as opposed to very short prices. On the balance of probability, the two 6/4 favourites have a better chance to win the race. However, one of those selections MUST win, right?.
The good example shows this - I said you will be minus, not plus, but that is the typical Professional theory, not the mathematical fact, and that's fine.
But if you want to bet against 'the balance of probability'.....then that's your call.
So I will challenge any chancer this - If you want to go for the +£5 after staking £20, then why not go for £100 on each 6/4....to win £50?....but also remember this - if yo ever see two horses at joint 6/4 favourites, it means that your field of runners is at least 12 runners. And therefore those other runners do not know that they are outsiders, right? .........10 against two??? ...now do you have the bottle to spunk £200 and not feel nervous?
Remember, this was only proffesional advice, from experts many ears ago, not mine. And it hhas served me well.
Some Pro's say if you wanna flutter, have a flutter. If you want to back a favourite, then commit to one of the 6/4 favs.....because, if you lose, then you simply lose. However, if you put your joint stake (£20 on the winner) you collect £50 without spending £200.
When I said, you will lose £5......it was from a pro theory.
They say - If you are backing two joint Favs in one race at short prices - the bets are called,, **** bets or ****house bets....because there is simply no enjoyment whatsoever.
....................................................................
My own conclusion is this -
I am not a Tipster, and I have not ever proffesed to to be so. Instead I research stats an I try to spread the wealth.
Thanks for your response bud !
Thanks for this but not sure if I agree to it all. I wouldn't bet on 2 6/4 shots (when I said I have backed 2 horses in the same race it is normally bigger prices and e/w).Thank you for your response mate. Please let me explain.
For those who were members of our original BBC 606 Site years ago, myself and another guy explained this. He explained it all much better than me.
Before you read this, remember that this a Professional Gamblers theory who advised to not to back both very short joint favourites in the same race.
Okay, lets say you fancy a flutter in a horse race. You see joint favs at about 6/4. The race has 12 runners, but you think that backing both joint favs with £10 stakes at 6/4 is a good idea because you think you have a good chance to collect £5 if one horse wins the race. Why is that a bad decision?
..... because only one horse can win this race, meaning that backing two very short priced favs against each other is folly.
£20 to collect a £5 profit spoils the whole ethos of exciting and and enjoyment of a flutter.
If folk agree that the mathematical theory is the lead, then you will lose your house one day.
DON'T take the mathematical theory please.......because if both favs don't win, you will be homeless!
UNLESS - you are having a fun bet on outsiders with small enjoyment stakes,...not short favs, then you will enjoy your flutter.
We all back more than one horse in the Grand National, yeah?......and that is enjoyment by the way, right?.......and that is mint !
But remember this theory is from Pro's, not from me.
.........................................................................................
I have just found his advice wording -
..........................................................................................
Money loss V's money gain V's enjoyment V's funds. -
To those who may think this is boring, then I agree 100%
This advice is from a gambling group, who swear by guidance.
If you back two horses in the same race, it is only beneficial financially if the odds of both of your selections are generous, as opposed to very short prices. On the balance of probability, the two 6/4 favourites have a better chance to win the race. However, one of those selections MUST win, right?.
The good example shows this - I said you will be minus, not plus, but that is the typical Professional theory, not the mathematical fact, and that's fine.
But if you want to bet against 'the balance of probability'.....then that's your call.
So I will challenge any chancer this - If you want to go for the +£5 after staking £20, then why not go for £100 on each 6/4....to win £50?....but also remember this - if yo ever see two horses at joint 6/4 favourites, it means that your field of runners is at least 12 runners. And therefore those other runners do not know that they are outsiders, right? .........10 against two??? ...now do you have the bottle to spunk £200 and not feel nervous?
Remember, this was only proffesional advice, from experts many ears ago, not mine. And it hhas served me well.
Some Pro's say if you wanna flutter, have a flutter. If you want to back a favourite, then commit to one of the 6/4 favs.....because, if you lose, then you simply lose. However, if you put your joint stake (£20 on the winner) you collect £50 without spending £200.
When I said, you will lose £5......it was from a pro theory.
They say - If you are backing two joint Favs in one race at short prices - the bets are called,, **** bets or ****house bets....because there is simply no enjoyment whatsoever.
....................................................................
My own conclusion is this -
I am not a Tipster, and I have not ever proffesed to to be so. Instead I research stats an I try to spread the wealth.
Thanks for your response bud !
However, if you want to bet £20 and are happy to potentially only win £5 then so be it, it is fun to win after all. The alternative, as stated in your reply was to put the £20 on one horse to win £30 but you could pick the wrong one and lose £20. Obviously you could lose £20 if neither wins but that is the risk of gambling.
We all have our ways (I have been betting for over 55 years), where, when I go to the races I like to have a bet on every race (and because I study form I tend to back horses at the top end of the market) for the enjoyment, whereas my mate may only have 3-4 bets but tends to ignore favourites and looks for bigger prices.
Like I say we all have our own way but I enjoy the racing and betting and only bet what I can afford to lose (I know there will be a lot of people saying it is a waste of money but my argument is that sometimes the bookies give me more back than I bet but I have yet been in a pub where the landlord gave me more back than I spent on drink
However, it still means that it is a £5 gain and not a £5 loss
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Good points mate. But we both agree that the whole ethos is to enjoy our flutter, and, to be in a position to afford to lose.Thanks for this but not sure if I agree to it all. I wouldn't bet on 2 6/4 shots (when I said I have backed 2 horses in the same race it is normally bigger prices and e/w).
However, if you want to bet £20 and are happy to potentially only win £5 then so be it, it is fun to win after all. The alternative, as stated in yourr reply was to put the £20 on one horse to win £30 but you could pick the wrong one and lose £20. Obviously you could lose £20 if neither wins but that is the risk of gambling.
We all have our ways (I have been betting for over 55 years), where, when I go to the races I like to have a bet on every race (and because I study form I tend to back horses at the top end of the market) for the enjoyment, whereas my mate may only have 3-4 bets but tends to ignore favourites and looks for bigger prices.
Like I say we all have our own way but I enjoy the racing and betting and only bet what I can affordto lose (I know there will be a lot of people saying it is a waste of money but my argument is that sometimes the bookies give me more back than I get but I have yet been in a pub where the landlord gave me more back than I spent on drink
However, it still means that it us a £5 gain and mot a £5 loss
I love a bet on footy, and I can afford to lose my stakes. And yes, we all look at at betting in a different way.
With footy bets, I back Accas with some prices of 1/3 or 1/5 etc, but my Accas consist of over 10 selections which build my bet t.o over 10/1 not high stakes.
Good luck !
Yeah, I am the same with my football accas, normally about 8 teams and only a very small stake, mainly to give me an interest after the racing has finishedGood points mate. But we both agree that the whole ethos is to enjoy our flutter, and, to be in a position to afford to lose.
I love a bet on footy, and I can afford to lose my stakes. And yes, we all look at at betting in a different way.
With footy bets, I back Accas with some prices of 1/3 or 1/5 etc, but my Accas consist of over 10 selections which build my bet t.o over 10/1 not high stakes.