I think Assad will be safe and sound. The easiest option would have been to deny him asylum and allow the rebels to get him. You cannot accept a political refugee like this and the just toss em out a window. It makes you look insane. Assad and his family have likely been stashing billions into Russian banks as a contingency method for years, he'll be ****ing minted, safe and it makes Russia look "decent" because they didn't let them do a Gaddafi to him.
Maybe, but Putin is insane and any money in Russian accounts is now Putin's. He's a liability, Putin was KGB, everyone is dispensable in Putin's world.
Looks like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) are now the de facto govt in Syria. UK Govt having to wrestle with the fact that they had them on their 'terrorist' list and may have to reassign them as a genuine Govt. There's no world in which we can't have diplomatic relations with Syria https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz7qenxy8r2o
I think Assad will quietly disappear from the public glare. He's been granted asylum in Russia and I'd expect at some point he will be covertly moved, with his family to somewhere like Iran. At some point the ICJ and ICC might come after him with an arrest warrant for crimes against humanity, but it's unlikely he'll ever come to justice. That has been further complicated with Netanyahu's complete disregard for the international rule of law, labelling the ICJ 'anti-semitic' after they issued a warrant for his arrest for his own human rights atrocities.
HTS was for the longest time funded by the UK. Rory Stewart remembers quite vividly sending money to them when he was the Middle East Development minister.
People forget that for the past 10 years Syria has been essentially a narco state and that Assad has ran it like a Russian oligarchy. He's been shipping out drugs like captagon for years, it's an industry worth BILLIONS and most of that would have been going into the private bank accounts of family members and certain ministers. He will be worth, no exaggeration billions upon billions spread all over the place. Money he can invest where he pleases in nations that still like him. You saw this in how the place that accepted his plane was the UAE of all people He's no longer a president he's now just a billionaire.
Indeed. And it shows the arbitrary and fluid nature of 'Terrorist organisation' designation, depending on our own agenda and interests. The UK Govt has spent something like £350m arming and equipping various rebel factions in Syria in their attempt to topple Assad. And **** knows how much the Yanks have sent over there.
He said that the issue became as it often does in moderate organizations, if they don't see a swift victory they usually sell themselves out to groups like Al-Qaeda who are willing to put boots on the ground to support operations. Then when that happens, you really have no choice but to cut funding and stick em on the list. But it all becomes such a ****ing mess, usually these groups are run by loosely organised city council types and you have no idea where the money goes.
Yeah this is the problem with arming various factions in a region where there's a hair's breadth between what we consider an asset or a terrorist organisation.
You seem easily swayed by the media? As for someone harbouring Assad that would be like the UK harbouring Netanyahu, there is no world I could see that ever happening, regardless of what side you are on during the conflict. Likewise I really can't see what Assad has to offer anyone and equally needs chucking in the bin. Same with the de facto govt, civil war will break out next, they are called rebels for a reason and as such are never capable of a structured society, especially with about 60 different groups and three different armies, that will form pockets. Maybe we should give it a while before deciding what we should and shouldn't do, and not jump to hasty decisions.
I just hope Sucky has recovered from the Chelsea win yesterday, the far more important politics of the not606 world, he seemed to take it very badly yesterday.
I wonder if Can they pop over here 1st and take the ones we took in back with them to free the Muslim world
It's easier to be a radical idealist when you're a revolutionary. It's harder to maintain that when you've got real people to govern and you're the sitting head. Could go either way- either they stay crazy assholes, but now with the resources of an entire nation behind them... or they soften a little so that they themselves are not as likely to be deposed. Or, something in between. I don't know if they will cause trouble with Israel or not, but I suspect they'll soften at least a little... civilians are not as quick to get on board with the crazy as revolutionaries are.
