Match Day Thread Sunderland AFC v Middlesbrough FC - Saturday 21st September 2024 - KO 12:30

[Smug in Boots]

Effective is the wrong word but some data can definitely be used as a better predictor for future performance than simply goals scored. If a team is consistently creating big chances but aren't scoring over a 5 game spell while a team is scoring but they are all long distance goals, penalties and 'lucky' goals, the first team will probably do better over a 30 game spell than the second.

That is not the case here though, Boro are creating a load of poor quality chances and are also not scoring. I don't think they are all that good.

I'd agree with all of that.

It was clear that, just because Sheff Wed scored four goals against Plymouth, and probably had decent stats, it didn't mean they'd keep scoring. I'd not even look at stats until we've played fifteen games and things start to balance out ...

... I've no idea of the stats under Mowbray but, quite often, we'd be heading for a low or zero score when Amad would score a 'wonder goal' and the stats would go up in the air like dominoes in a Friday night workey

 

[Smug in Boots]

That is madness! xg means **** all compared to goals scored!

Come the final whistle only two that matter is goals scored and goals conceded! 100% desperation to say their attack must be better cause they have twice the xg but ignoring the fact we have scored twice as many goals and as a result are nearly twice as many point as a result!

If goals come from penalties, OGs and 'wonder goals', in your first six games, your luck may well run out ...

... most of our goals have been team goals or routines from the training ground.

That's sustainable and, as young players improve, you'd hope things will gradually become as good long term or even improve.

 

[C Montgomery Burns]

Data in the right hands is good, data in the hands of someone who does not understand it is very bad.

I haven't read that thread but is there any mention of game state? Of course Boro are going to have good xG numbers, they've been behind in 3 of their 6 games so naturally they will create more chances when they are chasing the game, as nearly every team does.

They've had 59 more touches in the opponents box than anyone else (228, 2nd place is Sheff Utd with 169), yet have only created 15 'big chances' which is joint 8th in the league.

Their squads xGOT (expected goals on target. Measures the quality of the finish by measuring shot placement) numbers are abysmal. They've had a league leading 104 shots however only 22 of them have been on target, only 8 teams have had fewer shots on target. That means just 21% of their shots are on target, worst in the league. If you look at their non penalty xG per shot it ranks in the bottom half of the league, they are not creating good chances.

In conclusion, they are creating a lot of chances but the chances they are creating are bad opportunities. Plus the only reason they are creating a lot of the opportunities is because they are behind in games. Their data might look good on paper but if you delve just a little deeper it really isn't good.

There's an old saying, there's lies, damned lies and statistics.

Any statistic can be twisted and manipulated to show whatever you want and is only useful when looked at impartially and in context with other stats. This obsession with xG is pretty recent generated by the media at first, but only tells a tiny part of the story. In the wider context you've supplied for Boro it's just one tiny piece of the picture and it's going against other stats, meaning most likely it's the outlier. If that prat is focusing solely on that to say everything is ok and they're better than us, but dismissing the greater volume of stuff that contradicts xG, he could be in for a massive disappointment.

 

[SourPatch2]

There's an old saying, there's lies, damned lies and statistics.

Any statistic can be twisted and manipulated to show whatever you want and is only useful when looked at impartially and in context with other stats. This obsession with xG is pretty recent generated by the media at first, but only tells a tiny part of the story. In the wider context you've supplied for Boro it's just one tiny piece of the picture and it's going against other stats, meaning most likely it's the outlier. If that prat is focusing solely on that to say everything is ok and they're better than us, but dismissing the greater volume of stuff that contradicts xG, he could be in for a massive disappointment.

Yeah the media have been using xG a lot recently, Sky especially, despite actual football clubs not using it anymore or using it completely differently now.

I personally like it for measuring individual shots, xG and xGOT for individual chances provide context for that event and it can be used in multiple different ways. A standard xG table combining all the games played so far is nonsense. You could theoretically have 50 shots from 30 yards out in a game and it would generate a decent xG, while the opposition could have 3 shots from 8 yards out and score all 3 but end up with lower xG despite creating 3 excellent chances.

It's all about context.

 

[Smug in Boots]

Good little read this .... https://archive.is/X3Wum

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[young2077]

https://archive.is/X3Wum

Good read that. Love RLB comment age doesn't matter you can be mature at 17 and immature at 30! How true is that?

How many older players over the years haven't shown a pinch of the professionalism and determination of these young lads?

Too many to mention but if I was to one it would be that **** Darron Gibson, that video of him talking about other players not giving a **** and then spitting his dummy out when the lad he was talking to pointed out he was one of them it was bad enough at the time but ended up even worse with how his time ended!

These young lads are a different breed to what we have had here over the years!

 

[TeamOfTalents]

Apparently that back heel was on his weakest foot too!

 

[LD19SAFC]

Apparently that back heel was on his weakest foot too!

Certainly was

The lad is a class act.

 

[SnakeEyes]

I can't remember ever going on the Boro forum but a mate, with a Smoggy workmate, sent me a link ...

.... this, in my mind anyway, is what's wrong with some football supporters who've gone OTT with the 'football manager' analyses.

It's hilarious and pitiful in equal measure, I've posted appropriate smileys after each comment.


'Where in my comment did I say that Sunderland are rubbish?

Their attack is weaker than ours. Look at the underlying data.

Goals scored aren't the best way to calculate how efficient and quality a team are at attacking.

In fact, their attack is worse than ours over the 6 games by nearly 2 xG.

We actually have the best attack in the league from the last 6 games.

The meltdown on this site is remarkable. Bedwetting at it's finest.

After 6 games, we are top for attack and 2nd for defence. And only Leeds have a better xGD than us.

The fact we're only on 8pts is bad luck and variance.

If we continue doing what we're doing, we'll give ourselves a great chance at moving up the table.'

There are sitcoms, currently on TV, less amausing than this forum ... it's brilliant entertainment!
https://fmttmboro.com/index.php?threads/aaron-connolly-to-sunderland.62192/

Haha I read that same thread. My personal favorite was that player to player they have a better team. Not sure I'd swap many of our starting 11 for theres tbh. Only player I liked the look of was the youngster Doak.

 

[Smug in Boots]

Haha I read that same thread. My personal favorite was that player to player they have a better team. Not sure I'd swap many of our starting 11 for theres tbh. Only player I liked the look of was the youngster Doak.

After every win this season the opposition fan podcasts have said 'That was our worst performance this season'.

It's almost as if Sunderland simply drop lucky, each time, and have no effect on the actual game.

Even the Wednesday fans, on Youtube, etc, were saying Sunderland were nothing special.

Personally I think Le Bris was exceptionally brave, in his set up against Boro, as were the team ...

... to stand off the opposition in the first minute, of a big derby match in front of 40,000 fans, was unprecedented.

Roker Park would've gone mental

 

[Monkey69]

Good little read this .... https://archive.is/X3Wum

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thats a really good read and further evidence of how well the young man has adapted to first team football

 

[robinoz]

This lad deserves supporting imo, I've set up a standing order.

Just saying ...

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Brilliant, just brilliant analysis!

 

[Smug in Boots]

Brilliant, just brilliant analysis!

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[Montysoptician]

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Great debut, he looks a great signing

 

[vic9]

Weirdly for the first time ever I took notice of Mepham’s first touch all game, being his debut and to gauge his ability on the ball, and got to say thought he was brilliant

 

[LD19SAFC]

Great debut, he looks a great signing

Brilliant signing for the level we’re at.

 

[SnakeEyes]

After every win this season the opposition fan podcasts have said 'That was our worst performance this season'.

It's almost as if Sunderland simply drop lucky, each time, and have no effect on the actual game.

Even the Wednesday fans, on Youtube, etc, were saying Sunderland were nothing special.

Personally I think Le Bris was exceptionally brave, in his set up against Boro, as were the team ...

... to stand off the opposition in the first minute, of a big derby match in front of 40,000 fans, was unprecedented.

Roker Park would've gone mental

Yes that's very true actually. Reminds me of how Benetiz had Liverpool set up at one point. Spoil the opposition play and build from there. It's a very different style to what we are used to. Will we all be so patient if we go on a bad run tho? I know some won't.

 

[LD19SAFC]

Yes that's very true actually. Reminds me of how Benetiz had Liverpool set up at one point. Spoil the opposition play and build from there. It's a very different style to what we are used to. Will we all be so patient if we go on a bad run tho? I know some won't.

Yep. They’ve earned some patience if things turned for a bit.

 

[Essayyeffcee]

I've seriously warmed to the bloke. Doesn't rest on his laurels and doesn't seem to be happy with just a win - it's the style of how we win he wants.

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[Smug in Boots]

I've seriously warmed to the bloke. Doesn't rest on his laurels and doesn't seem to be happy with just a win - it's the style of how we win he wants.

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I liked the O'Nien post-Boro interview when he said they'd had 7 or 8 sit down meetings discussing what went wrong, and right, at Plymouth. Good to know it's a discussion not a lecture as you'd imagine it to be with the likes of Roy Keane.