I would back you to beat Surrey. With finals day stupidly scheduled to clash with the pointless t20 series vs Australia, Surrey will likely be without Sam Curran, Jacks, and Topley. There is also no guarantee that Atkinson, Smith, Pope and Lawrence will be made available after this test match. Meanwhile Roy is at the CPL, and I think Johnson is injured.
It'll be interesting what the two of you do selection-wise for the Championship match this week. As I recall, we played you in the Championship last year in the week before finals day, and you duly rested a lot of players (whereas we didn't). But this time, there is a whole lot more riding on your Championship match - for both sides.
I've heard that Surrey are trying to recruit Shakib for the game. Partly to cover all the experience which they will likely be missing, but I guess also to be prepared for the risk that Taunton turns square from ball one.
If Jofra had been available, I think I might have just favoured Sussex of the four teams next weekend. But without him, I think it'll be Somerset to retain the title.