Election 2024

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How are Labour doing after their first 12 months

  • Total voters
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Labour majority of around 50 seats I reckon. Lib Dems need to win around 50 themselves. Reports of the extinction of the Tories are premature, unfortunately.
 
Treble said:
It won't be over 400 Welshie. No way. I reckon between 350 to 370.
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You don't think they can even match Tony Blairs 97 election?

That election was 43% Labour 30% Tory.

This election polling is 40% Labour 20% Tory.
 
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Welshie said:
You don't think they can even match Tony Blairs 97 election?

That election was 43% Labour 30% Tory.

This election polling is 40% Labour 20% Tory.
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You're forgetting mate, the Sucky's of this world have to get out of bed first.
 
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Welshie said:
You don't think they can even match Tony Blairs 97 election?

That election was 43% Labour 30% Tory.

This election polling is 40% Labour 20% Tory.
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I don't know about the polls tbh. There's a sizeable amount who haven't decided. There's been a decent effort by the press to say Labour haven't got any details on the plans, which is funny as no party has ever had much detail to their manifesto. Except Kinnock/Smith and that was a disaster. And I expect turnout to be low as well.
 
Treble said:
I don't know about the polls tbh. There's a sizeable amount who haven't decided. There's been a decent effort by the press to say Labour haven't got any details on the plans, which is funny as no party has ever had much detail to their manifesto. Except Kinnock/Smith and that was a disaster. And I expect turnout to be low as well.
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I think the key difference here as opposed to other elections such as 97 and 2010 is that the Tories are doing so poorly. Even in 97 there was an element of people who still had faith in the Tory government, but apathy and dislike for the current government is unparalleled, I don't think the country has seen anything like it for many years.

I think it will help inflate Labours seats; they will take most of England, all of Wales, lots of Scotland from the SNP. It's an absolute perfect storm for Labour.

I don't think them holding all their current seats and winning 200 is so outlandish in the current climate.

Sunak has been PM for just shy of 2 years, Brown was only PM for 3. I think there is an unbelievable divide in how the public views these two PMs.
 
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Welshie said:
I think the key difference here as opposed to other elections such as 97 and 2010 is that the Tories are doing so poorly. Even in 97 there was an element of people who still had faith in the Tory government, but apathy and dislike for the current government is unparralled, I don't think the country has seen anything like it for many years.

I think it will help inflate Labours seats; they will take most of England, all of Wales, lots of Scotland from the SNP. It's an absolute perfect storm for Labour.

I don't think them holding all their current seats and winning 200 is so outlandish in the current climate.
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Definitely agree about Scotland. It's weird aint it that just a few years ago it looked like Labour were finished there, and with that so was any chance of winning a GE.

Just on 97, there were two things - Maastricht and Back to Basics scandals with Mellor and Major. Just those two things alone crucified them to an extent. Nowadays that would be yesterday's news very quickly. You need about a dozen things now for it to stick imo.
 
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Treble said:
Definitely agree about Scotland. It's weird aint it that just a few years ago it looked like Labour were finished there, and with that so was any chance of winning a GE.

Just on 97, there were two things - Maastricht and Back to Basics scandals with Mellor and Major. Just those two things alone crucified them to an extent. Nowadays that would be yesterday's news very quickly. You need about a dozen things now for it to stick imo.
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Lucky for Labour that Sunak deliver a dozen **** ups before breakfast these days.
 
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Turbia Milk said:
I'm of a different opinion.... I think that big a majority would be a disaster.

Don't get me wrong... The Tories need to be removed and I will have a big laugh if they get cut down to size... but it's never good when any party has such a big lead. It takes away the need for compromise and allows crazy ideas to make it through to law.
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all you need is the majority the Tories had after the 2019 election and you can pass all legislation which isn't totally nuts or on sensitive subjects when free votes are often allowed the death penalty and abortion are 2 obvious examples of the latter .
 
Have to say Ed Davey is mental but I like him <laugh>

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Never known anything like it in a GE.
 
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