Transfer Rumours The Summer 2024 Transfer Thread

[Mick O'Toon]

Brewster wasn't it?

Yeah think so, wasn't that long ago

 

[G4rdToonArmy]

Yeah think so, wasn't that long ago

Yeah just looked him up - Liverpool did amazing, he'd had a decent half season in the Champ scoring 10 goals in 20 games on loan then got sold for £23.5m to SU - since he has played 77 games scoring 5 goals...

 

[FadgewackeR]

The thing is the reporters are still all guessing. The behaviour over the weekend seems to suggest something was afoot. When people follow accounts like Keiran Maguire (thought we were fine), Swiss Ramble (looks over previous accounts rather than predicting from what I see, ((Fadge knows better as he follows them)) and Steffan Borson (former Man City Finance director predicted an £8m loss) these guy's are all over the place and specialise in football finance.

All we know is the previous 2 year losses were total pre tax losses of £70.7m in season 21/22 and £73.4m in 22-23.

So starting point for psr at the begining of this season was - £116.1m (includes last 2 years allowable adjustments of £28m combined) Meaning we needed to make an £11.1m profit but an eye watering swing of £84.5m

All anyone can do is use previous years expenses as best they can and guesstimate.

Shirt Sponsorship

But if you simply take the £73.4m loss and add Sela's additional £17.5m to £20m (differs due to conflicting reports as to what Fun88 paid)
Gives us a loss of £53.4m - £55.9m but I'll go with larger loss for a more cynical view.

After new Sela Shirt deal we'd be at a £55.9m loss using previous accounts. £67m shy of PSR according to online reports

Champions league

We can then add in CL prize money of a reported £37m.Of which we didn't have last year so we can add this.

After Champions League we'd be at a £18.8m loss using previous accounts. £29.9m shy of PSR according to online reports.

I won't add CL gate receipts in order to counter last year's run to the cup final. so we're still at a loss of £18.8m

Transfers

I used Transfermarket for transfer fee's and contract lengths for both incoming and outgoing.

We sold ASM for £27.2m (transfermarket.com). we bought him for £18m (transfermarket.com) and he had 3 years left on his contract at time of sale.

£27.2m
-£9m (amount left to be amortised)
£18.2m profit

However according to accounts we made previous season sales of £3m (Shelvey)

So it's a £15.2m profit leaving us at a loss of £3.7m going off previous years accounts £14.9m shy of PSR according to online reports.

We sold Chris Wood for £17m (transfermarket.com). We bought him for £25m (transfermarket.com) and he had 1 year remaining of his contract at time of sale having signed an initial 2 1/2 year contract (SkySports) meaning we were still due £10m on his amortisation

£17m
-£10m
£7m profit

So its a £7m profit leaving us in profit of £3.3 going off previous years accounts £7.9m shy of PSR according to online reports.

Karl Darlow was sold for £400k (transfermarket.com) Can't possibly have still been amortising this ****er.

£400k profit now turns £3.3m profit into £3.7m profit. going off previous years accounts. still short by £7.5m.

After Transfers sales we'd be £3.7m in profit. Short of PSR by £7.5m

It's at this point everything goes completely unknown.

Partnerships

We have Saudia, Bet MGM, In-Post, Quidd, sportsbet.io, Fenwick

No idea how much these are worth as can't find any financials on them but if we said £1m each

After partnerships we'd be £9.7m in profit. Short of PSR by £1.5m (complete guestimates on anyones behalf)

Adidas

Adidas has kicked in now but long term effect wont be seen until now.

1 month of a £40m per annum deal would be £3,3m or of a £30m per annum deal £2.5m

If either of these are accounted for then we've reached PSR safety at this point.

Allowable Costs

Previous 2 years were £28m, This however included major redevelopment work of training ground and purchase of land at Strawberry Place. It also includes academy costs, womens team (who went profesional this year) and stadium costs.

No idea if or what costs of the Fan Zone are to the club, don't know if club is paying or Stack is paying.....

Likewise I know club have taken over Northumberland FA headquarters land next door to training ground and are ploughing on redeveloping that area. Don't know if this has been purchased or leased but the new state of the art media centre is going here.

With Allowable adjustments we're past PSR safety threshold according to online reports.

Now the **** bit

We signed Harvey Barnes, Tino Livramento, Sandro Tonali and Yakubah Minteh.

Harvey Barnes £35 5 year deal adds £7m per annum
Tino Livramento £35m 5 year deal adds £7m per annum
Sandro Tonali £55m 5 year deal adds £11m per annum
Yankubah Minteh £8m 5 year deal adds £1.6m per annum

This gives £26.6m a year additional amortisation costs, However you can deduct the £13m from this due to longer amortising ASM and Wood.

So 13.6m added costs.

We've also got a smaller prize fund from PL to take into account, no Sam Fender gig this year, no One Big Weekend this year, No daryah Cup this year. To counter this ticket prices went up 5% accross the board, and we got a reported £3m for playing in OZ.

Which means off transfers and other items its hellishly close to PSR without knowing Agents Fees, Bonuses, Salary increases etc.

It could go one way or other and would depend on allowable adjustments.

It would also depend on the so called experts being close to on the ball with their review of previous years accounts.

With hindsight my guess would be the Dan Ashworth Compo was what would have got us over the line comfortably.

Everyone knows, regardless of whether we were miles over, or just close to PSR, we would have to start trading players with some value. Every club does. We had good opportunity to make big money. £35m pure profit for Anderson is a no brainer.

When the accounts are published, it'll all be laid bare. No way was every last penny needed just to scrape PSR, but that's not as "newsworthy". Newcastle conclude smart business deals vs Newcastle PSR turmoil.

 

[FadgewackeR]

Re Swiss Ramble - his analysis rarely goes into great detail on future unknowns, but he did add this in the comments section after our last financials:

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This was his summary section of the 22/23 analysis - vague, but accurate.

Conclusion

Darren Eales concluded: “Newcastle United has had a very successful year both on and off the pitch. We continue to make progress each day as we strengthen the foundations of the long-term project that we are developing here at the club.”

He added, “We can’t think week to week, month to month, transfer window to transfer window. If we are going to get where we want to get to, which is a top six sustainable club competing for trophies, we have to take a long-term vision.”

Unfortunately for those fans desperate for a marquee signing, that approach will include the club boxing clever to stay within FFP rules. This means that if there are to be any arrivals, that almost certainly means also having to sell players.

 

[Roland Deschain]

What in the name of holy **** are these ridiculous keeper deals, man?

Vlach who couldn’t get past Matz Sels and made 5 apps and relegated Birmingham’s sub keeper?

The **** is going on.

 

[mmmkay]

WTF’s going on?
Are we going to field a team of keepers ffs?
Buying everyone’s has been cast offs?

He's said in his interview that he's there to help with training etc, essentially a player coach.

 

[mmmkay]

What in the name of holy **** are these ridiculous keeper deals, man?

Vlach who couldn’t get past Matz Sels and made 5 apps and relegated Birmingham’s sub keeper?

The **** is going on.

As above, ruddy is more of a coach.

Vlach is Karios' replacement and will probably never get a game.

 

[Roland Deschain]

As above, ruddy is more of a coach.

Vlach is Karios' replacement and will probably never get a game.

Sure, and if Popes shoulder goes, can you explain what happens then?

 

[Somebodys pinched my sombrero]

Sure, and if Popes shoulder goes, can you explain what happens then?

Gillespie likely.

 

[mmmkay]

Sure, and if Popes shoulder goes, can you explain what happens then?

We'll be signing another keeper

 

[Leo Billy]

To be fair the ruddy signing is like Man City having Scott Carson.

the question is will we be buying any half decent players this summer or?

 

[G4rdToonArmy]

We'll be signing another keeper

Pope, Vlach, Gillespie, Ruddy and another?

Is this like Pardew's LB fetish?

 

[Welshie]

... A goalkeeper Birmingham didn't even want.

The ****.

 

[Roland Deschain]

... A goalkeeper Birmingham didn't even want.

The ****.

…..in LEAGUE ONE!!

 

[FadgewackeR]

…..in LEAGUE ONE!!

Can't see him making many appearances...

 

[Roland Deschain]

Can't see him making many appearances...

Sure, but I am just somewhat bemused that an injury to Pope sees Vlachodimos start, with either Gillespie or Ruddy on the bench. We're approaching year three of the takeover and our GK department looks like something Sunderland would have.

 

[Obi Wan]

So... we're NOT getting Mbappe then?

 

[Welshie]

So... we're NOT getting Mbappe then?

We'd be lucky to get Mbappes used socks right now

 

[Gangsta Ginola]

What I meant, was having been first to mention the deal, I was sure you were up to speed with any others ....

There, wasn't that difficult was it? Thought a bright lad like you would have realised that

Not sure why I got the abuse on that basis

Well I apologise. I was wrong to do that.

 

[G4rdToonArmy]

So just doing a bit of digging on Odysseas Vlachodimos as I know nothing about the lad.

Clearly had a really poor season last year at Forrest only starting 5 games and not even making their squad towards the end of the year but looking at his time at Benefica prior to that he looks to have done well generally. Mainstay in their team for 5 years.

2022/23 stats: https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/ody...stungsdaten/spieler/124419/plus/0?saison=2022

Played 54 - Conceded 39 - 28 Clean Sheets

Was their keeper in the team that qualified from their CL group beating Juventus & drawing with PSG twice each.

Must be something there and the management at Forrest just couldn't get the best out of him.