Daily Racing Thread Saturday 4th. May 2024

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attivo

attivo

Well-Known Member
Jan 23, 2014
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Saturday's Meetings

Newmarket
Flat 9 Races 1:10-5:50p.m.
2000 Guineas Off @ 3:35p.m.
Goodwood
Flat 7 Races 1:35-5:05p.m.
Thirsk
Flat 7 Races 1:40-4:55p.m.
Punchestown Festival
N/H 8 Races 2:30-6:30p.m.
Uttoxeter(E)
N/H 7 Races 4:00-7:25p.m.
Hexham(E)
N/H 8 Races 4:25-8:26p.m.
Yarmouth(E)
Flat 7 Races 4:40-8:05p.m.

Racecards
At The Races
Sporting Life
Racing Post

Good Luck <ok>
 
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City of Troy silly rating and silly price on seasonal debut. Lay all day long. Rosallion the one for me.
 
OddDog said:
My brother is going to Thirsk so if anyone has any fancies please post here <cheers>
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Northern Express won the Thirsk Hunt Cup last year. See no reason why he cannot attain a repeat success. Very consistent performer, Hope your brother has an enjoyable and profitable visit to a course I went to a couple of times many moons ago. Liked Thirsk very much.
 
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LG said:
I'm going to stick my ignorant neck out and predict a 1-2 for that but with City of Troy several lengths ahead of Rosallion
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I think the assessor has massively overplayed his Dewhurst win. Prior to that race he was rated 118 and he beat the 107 rated Alyanaabi 3.5 lengths with the 98 rated Eben Shaddad in 3rd (a further length away). I can only assume the assessor has based the form on the 4th placed Henry Adams who went into the race rated 108 (since well beaten behind Rosallion in the Lagardere) and has accordingly increased Eben Shaddad to 112 (subsequently beaten by Haatem in the Craven who was only rated 105), Alyanaabi to 114 and City Of Troy to 125. Looking at the Dewhurst, it was Eben Shaddad's first run on soft ground and it is hard to argue he has run 14lbs better on soft ground. His 2nd in the Craven on good/gd-fm to me confirms he is better on a sound surface and I can't have him running to 112 in the Dewhurst. Similar story Alyanaabi. For me City Of Troy coped best with the conditions in the Dewhurst and he is NOT a 125 horse. If the course doesn't get a deluge between now and the off I think Rosallion is the bet as he looked very, very good twice on a sound surface and for me didn't act on the soft ground at Donny.
 
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OddDog said:
My brother is going to Thirsk so if anyone has any fancies please post here <cheers>
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Quest For Fun looks a decent each way bet in the 2.40 (Hunt Cup). First try at this trip but is race-fit and has run some good races for a stable that know the time of day.
I’ve been to Thirsk a few times and it’s a nice course so hopefully your brother has a good day
 
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OddDog said:
City of Troy silly rating and silly price on seasonal debut. Lay all day long. Rosallion the one for me.
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I’ll be taking you on with the other Hanson runner. Craven winners don’t have a good record in the guineas but I was impressed with his win. Hanson jnr had a twinkle in his eye when interviewed afterwards.
 
OddDog said:
I think the assessor has massively overplayed his Dewhurst win. Prior to that race he was rated 118 and he beat the 107 rated Alyanaabi 3.5 lengths with the 98 rated Eben Shaddad in 3rd (a further length away). I can only assume the assessor has based the form on the 4th placed Henry Adams who went into the race rated 108 (since well beaten behind Rosallion in the Lagardere) and has accordingly increased Eben Shaddad to 112 (subsequently beaten by Haatem in the Craven who was only rated 105), Alyanaabi to 114 and City Of Troy to 125. Looking at the Dewhurst, it was Eben Shaddad's first run on soft ground and it is hard to argue he has run 14lbs better on soft ground. His 2nd in the Craven on good/gd-fm to me confirms he is better on a sound surface and I can't have him running to 112 in the Dewhurst. Similar story Alyanaabi. For me City Of Troy coped best with the conditions in the Dewhurst and he is NOT a 125 horse. If the course doesn't get a deluge between now and the off I think Rosallion is the bet as he looked very, very good twice on a sound surface and for me didn't act on the soft ground at Donny.
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I hope you are right as the Bustino shilling is on Hannon's colt. The going may be key to this and pleased to see it's good at Newmarket.

By the way Oddy I don't think the 3 owner breeders thread justifies a sticky.
 
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Thirsk
14,40 Titan Rock 16/1 e/w bet365 four places, 14/1 others, 12/1 sky five places

Punchestown
15,05 Your Own Story 13/2 betfair, 6/1 others
16,15 Blackjack Magic 11/1 WH three places, 10/1 four places others
 
Newmarket
15,35 Task Force 25/1 e/w WH and sky three places, 22/1 others
 
OddDog said:
City of Troy silly rating and silly price on seasonal debut. Lay all day long. Rosallion the one for me.
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The silly price for City Of Troy is purely down to where he lives and ante post liabilities as he has been favourite for the 2000 Guineas for ten months. The pedigree suggests that he is probably a middle distance colt but he can pick this up en route to The Derby.

Punters are really taking a gamble on the Ballydoyle factor. He is rated 125 by Timeform but I think he went into the Dewhurst with quite a high figure already. If he ran to 125 that is better than the average rating needed to win the race. I won’t be touching the race today as O’Brien’s record with Dewhurst winners going to the Guineas is not good. Does anyone remember Air Force Blue (2016) or War Command (2014)? He last did the double with Churchill in 2017. Does the fact that the favourite is the only Ballydoyle runner tell us that he is supremely confident or that he does not have anything within six pounds of it that could win if this year’s wonder horse flops like last year’s did?

Anybody going to Newmarket this afternoon had better take something to sustain them through a nine race card, where quite frankly there looks to be little of any betting interest for form punters due to a shortage of good recent form.
 
Mums tipple is ticking a few boxes for me in the 1.45 hq. In good form off a better mark on turf. Some of these could be a bit rusty off of long layoffs. The Hannons could have a big day.
 
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