I think you have to take into account game time though here. He got a max 13 league goals being Everton’s main man as well as having a system somewhat catered to him. At Spurs it’s very likely he’s not going to be a regular starter this season (again) and we’re playing a style that also doesn’t suit him, so expectations have to be in line with that. 6-8 goals is probably around the best we could hope/ expect and on current form we’re looking at similar figures to last season…
the reality is that even if he can equal his record of 13 in a season, if we were to play Son in that position, he’d score more than 13. He’s just got 3 in 1 game. Richarlison is certainly gonna have to do better than 6-8 if he wants to keep a place in that front 3.
Son will also create far more chances than Richarlison does. He has to be given a run at CF, while the latter needs to learn how to impress from the bench.
Interesting article on the BBC today that analyses the most clinical finishers in the EPL. CBA to read the whole thing as it is largely a Pool/City love-in, but one thing that stands out is Son's output. 52 goals since 2020 from 244 shots. By comparison, Kane managed 57 goals but from 386 shots. Son's xg since then is +15 goals, which is all the more remarkable when considering how crap he was last season. Obviously stats only get you so far, but we have by a distance one of the best finishers in world football in our team. Play him as close to the goal as possible. It isn't rocket science.
There were suggestions that Sonny has been outperforming his xG for years, and last season was the universe rebalancing him I don't know why Reddit has decided that xG is The Word of God, but they have
I think that’s sort of what I was implying anyway. Richarlison isn’t likely to hit those numbers for us because it’s starting to feel inevitable that Son will be our primary CF (and I wouldn’t rule out Johnson being tried there either if Son goes back to LW) so 6-8 is the number I sort of hope/ expect from Richarlison as a bench option. The worry I have is that I’m struggling to see him even hitting those numbers based on his form for Tottenham since joining and the fact this system just doesn’t suit him one bit, as well as game time potentially further decreasing as a result of that. Unless a major change in luck and/ or fortune occurs, we’re on for another Soldado/ Janssen but a far more expensive one this time around.
xG as I understand it is just a model of the likelihood of the average shot from a given situation resulting in a goal. Son and Kane consistently outperforming xG just tells us they’re above average finishers, though Sonny had a bad season last time out.
I don't think that it even tells us that, to be honest. Lewandowski frequently underperforms on xG, for example. I think that Son's xG is generally very good for two main reasons. The first is that he scores when he's in behind defences pretty regularly. This is expected and keeps him ticking over. The second is his outrageous finishes from outside the box. Very low xG and he does it with greater frequency than most. What's the xG on something like this on his "weak" foot?
The Lewandowski anomaly is probably because he plays in highly dominant teams at club level who create a lot of chances for him in the box. He’s obviously an excellent finisher but missing a few high value chances impacts that over/underperformance metric more than missing a low value one from 30 yards. By comparison to Kane (as another 9) he has played in teams who create a lower volume and quality of chances for him in the box and he shoots more from range too. So again, fewer high quality chances, more low quality chances. Obviously he still scores at an alarming rate so that’s why his overperformance is so high. Even more so with Son who generally hasn’t played as a striker.
I rewatched the Burnley game focusing on Son and Richarlison. 1. After four games, Son seems to have mastered the CF position in Ange ball. I think the idea is for the CF to blend into the woodwork every moment he isn't making a dangerous run into all the space created by the width the team plays with. A very quiet hat trick is the perfect result. 2. When he wasn't offside, which was about 20% of the time, Richarlison stood next to the CBs, clamoring loudly for the ball. 3. So RIcharlison seems to have not made the slightest effort to play the way Ange wants CFs to play, with predictable results...while Son seems to have mastered it in no time flat.
Or Richarlison is doing exactly what Ange asks and draws the CBs to him leaving Son to take advantage of the space?
It could be, but I doubt it. We have a big four games of data to go on, but my eyes tell me when RIcharlison plays, there are 10 men playing Ange ball and one playing the way he always plays. The numbers are that in the 70 minutes he wasn't on the pitch, the three forwards accounted for 3 goals and 2 assists. In the nearly 300 minutes he was on the pitch, they accounted for one assist. Whatever RIcharlison was doing, it wasn't working. I'd say it was like Spurs were playing with 10 men, except Richarlison had a major impact as a black hole of possession, nearly giving Man U a goal at one point. Small sample size and all that, but Richarlison has been brutally bad so far this year. Incidentally, while it may not seem like it, I wish Richarlison nothing but the best. I understand he's been struggling, think it took courage for him to talk about his struggles publicly, and that famous athletes talking about psychological struggles helps treatment of psychological problems in general.
As you don't have stats giving an objective measure of the a priori difficulty of each attempt to score, then assuming the same number of minutes on the pitch you can only state that Kane has a lot more attempts at scoring. "Son's xg" And I immediately binned this thread.
I believe I said it a month or so ago, but Richy plays exactly like an Ange striker should - the issue is that striker is the striker with aerial ability that Ange brings off the bench as the team switches to Plan B and start raining crosses into the area The Richy/Perisic pairing already shows signs of being a useful ace in the hole in that regard
