Genuinely fascinated to see how this plays out. It always felt like a Russian civil war would be one of the big outcomes of the Ukraine war and we can't be far from that point now. If Wagner really do control all the administrative buildings in both Rostov and Voronezh already then you have to think that others are defecting or not even trying to prevent their progress. This is huge for Ukraine too. They need to throw everything at the Donbas imo while the Russian logistics are so compromised. Fascinating stuff. Though the prospect of a multi party civil war in a country with thousands of nukes is a bit concerning.
Cue you jumping in with a superficial analysis of views no one has expressed, regarding a geo-political crisis the outcome of which no one can possibly predict. The one thing we can say with certainty is that the international arms trade will continue to boom (pun not intended), while dishonest narratives are propagated from all quarters..
Sounds like Putin has upped sticks from Moscow and is flying to St Petersburg, along with some other prominent types.
Looks like the Chechens are arriving in Rostov, will be the first proper battle Wagner will need to fight? Could prove decisive one way or the other. In other news it's not looking good for Lukashenko either...
No matter how it goes you can't help but feel these next few weeks are going to be a pivotal moment in European history.
Crazy times. For all the UK’s faults i am happy to be safe here in a country where we solve our differences through words instead of violence.
Well, having caught up with all the crazy **** going on in Russia, this sort of thing tends to happen when you recruit mercenaries to fight for you. They have no loyalty to anyone or anything. Now Putin has two massive issues - the Ukraine offensive and Wagner.
Wonder if Ukraine can make any advance while the Russian offensive is split. Not sure it will advance to that point, but a nuclear nation at war with itself would be new and potentially extremely dangerous territory.
Of all the possible results, "Wagner gets almost all the way to Moscow, downs multiple helicopters, and then turns around and leaves" wasn't on my list.
Listening to the news this evening, today's events will be beneficial in the short term for Ukraine. My fear would be that Prigozhin will not be afraid to go for wholescale destruction. If anything, it is a worse situation that with Putin. What has been missing from the analysis is that no one has mentioned the supporters of Navalny and how they might fit into the equation. I think Nalalny himself would be exterminated by Prigozhin yet I can't help feeling that there must be some normal Russians out there who are fed up with this madness. No one in Russia appears to be sane from the media reports.
The problem for the liberals is that they don't have a grip on any of the power structures. Basically, all of the challenges to Putin in the near term are going to come from his right: Prigozhin isn't likely to attempt it again (I can't imagine anyone follows him...he got to Moscow and then limply turned around and left after his troops shed Russian blood) but I'd imagine that there are some army officers who took note of how easy that was.
I think that Putin will remain in power but with Prighozin waiting in the wings to succeed him. The current generals will be replaced to appease Prighozin and then I think that the troops will be withdrawn from Ukraine before the country is smashed by aerial bombardment. I cannot see the land forces being relied upon again and nor can I see Russia withdrawing and looking humiliated. My guess is that Prighozin will look to destroy all the infrastructure in Ukraine and have a scorched earth policy. The whole thing will creative the kind of instablity under Yeltsin. I do not envisage a civil war in Russia. A changing of Putin's guard who have been seen to have failed will happen and I think this will be pretty ruthless. My fear is that Prighozin will call NATO's bluff and use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. It will be frightening to see how NATO's resolve remains in tack if the Russians try to destroy everything. You would hope that there is a majority of people who would come out on the streets to protest against Putin and Prighozin. Whatever happens, you feel that the genie has now come out f the bottle for Putin.
