Weekend Debate

[wakeybreakyheart]

Don’t be daft. You think they’d give up on a champions league place just to get us relegated. Get a grip people.

Oh come on we northeners have known this for decades.

 

[Jammy 07]

Just for the record Koch was excellent yesterday, for a player who's limited in his capabilities he made sure he didn't make any serious errors in possession whilst being very combative and showing good energy to get up the pitch when we needed to try and chase the game.

Interesting that Big Sam decided to deploy him there and with hindsight we could have done with that type of effectiveness much earlier in the season. Also as he was benched for the Man City game it's probably safe to assume he's impressed in training this week so well done to Robin for showing the right attitude as well

 

[Eireleeds1]

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Great achievement for Kalvin

 

[Doc]

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Great achievement for Kalvin

 

[Aski]

Jammy correct again. Also Wober is taking stick simply because they were all orders by Sam to stay on their feet, don’t go to ground. Phil Hay says Wober will be getting the hairdryer on Monday.

Bamford still taking flack in the media and being called a £70kpwk 6’1” dud who is still firing blanks. Seen some of the stuff on social media involving his family which is shyt. But football wise I have never understood how a striker can miss as many tap ins, easy headers, or can miss the ball completley, get his feet tangled trying to get the ball on his left foot. He has been a mess. Aski can probably correct me but I estimate that Paddy has missed at least 10 nailed on goals this season. Nailed on goals in my eyes are harder to miss, not speculative shots, glancing headers etc. no nailed on are simple goals. Those goals are the difference in relegation and staying up. For me Bamford should go elsewhere now as 2 seasons of injury, unfitness and uselessness has contributed to our downfall as much as Orta or the board

Only just seen this Doc, so apologies for the delay in replying.

from an XG point of view, Paddy should have scored 10 goal (well 9.77), so he is 6 below what you would expect. I have no idea if XG takes into account where a player completely misses the ball, that's something that maybe Milky can educate me on.

He has taken 2 penalties and missed them both, which would have an xg of 1.52, (however they were both poorly taken, not as if the keeper pulled of a wonder save).

PB has had 7 shots at goal from within the 6 yard box, one of which was saved by the keeper, 5 failed to hit the target, with the last resulting in a goal. He also had another 3 shots blocked by a defender from within the 6 yard box, but I would class those as scrambles and not rate them as being nailed on chances, and he has scored once. So 14% of his shots within the 6 yard box have been saved, 14% have resulted in a goal and 71% have missed the target, which does not make for good reading

In addition if you count chances from within the penalty area, that are within the width of the 6 yard box, so what I consider to be less speculative, then he has had a further 13 shots (not counting the 2 penalties), 5 of which were saved, 5 of which missed the target and 3 were scored. Again I've not included shots blocked by defenders. So 38.5% of his shots have been saved, 38.5% of his shots have gone wide and 23% have resulted in goals

Just for comparison as I am sure you will ask.

Rodrigo has had 4 chances from within the 6 yard box, all resulting in goals, plus 1 penalty which also resulted in a goal.

For shots within the penalty area, that are within the width of the 6 yard box, then Rodrigo has had a further 19 shots (not including those blocked by a defender), of which he has scored 4, 5 have been saved and 10 have been off target. So Rodrigo has scored with 21% of his chances within the penalty area from more than 6 yards away, 26% of those chances have been saved, whilst 53% have missed the target.

Basically if the chance is within the 6 yard box, then you want it to fall to Rodrigo. If its within the penalty area (not counting penalty kicks), then Bamford is less wasteful or more likely to at least force the keeper to make a save

Heat maps for both Bamford and Rodrigo -

Green = Goal Scored
Blue = Chance Saved
Red = Chance Missed

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[Irishshako]

Have to disagree with this mate. Chelsea have spent far more on players this season (and probably every season) but there’s no denying Pep is head and shoulders above the coaches they’ve employed. Oh and the football his teams play is just a joy to watch (as ours was under Bielsa I will add).

They have a bottomless pit of money, Chelsea may have spent more, but they didn't spend it on the right players. I mean city bought phillips just because they could and have played him less than two hours. Every side that pep has managed he has large amounts of money. The other galling thing is they are being investigated over the fair play rules and yet nothing has been done to them. I stand buy my comment that they are buying the league.

 

[Irishshako]

You have to be really really pleased for Kalvin Phillips and Raphinha who both win league titles this season …..
……. no me neither

**** them, they both pushed to leave and if phillips wants to sit on his arse while receiving a great wage, well he got his wish.

 

[Marcos Barber]

I did see the push on Firpo but IMO he could've avoided the handball. I agree he took one for the team with the red but it was only his poor positioning that allowed the space in the first place. There was no Newcastle player on his outside so why was he several yards away and behind Gordon. He does have his moments going forward but he's meant to be a defender. Unfortunately his defence skills aren't good enough.

I haven't seen the Wober pen incident yet.

When you do watch the Wober penalty incident back, see if you can spot which one of our players inexplicably fall over trying to get back in position at first glance I thought this penalty will get overturned, he must have been tripped. But no, with the benefit of the replays I can confirm he just fell over.

 

[Eireleeds1]

When you do watch the Wober penalty incident back, see if you can spot which one of our players inexplicably fall over trying to get back in position at first glance I thought this penalty will get overturned, he must have been tripped. But no, with the benefit of the replays I can confirm he just fell over.

Would usually be Aaronson but he wasn’t on field yet so that’s one ruled out

 

[Doc]

Thanks Aski. Still cant understand why Marsch, Gracia and Sam prefer Bamford to Rodrigo and the data shows that if the Bamford chances had fallen to Rodrigo he would have put a good majority of them away, which proves the point that those missed goals have probably killed the season

 

[Jammy 07]

When you do watch the Wober penalty incident back, see if you can spot which one of our players inexplicably fall over trying to get back in position at first glance I thought this penalty will get overturned, he must have been tripped. But no, with the benefit of the replays I can confirm he just fell over.

Slipped dear boy, or simply lost his footing as many better players than Firpo have done before leading to titles lost etc etc. Not sure that Firpo's slip did anything of the kind though as he had a team mate fully covering so nothing to worry about, unless your team mate then clatters the opponent when shepherding was the order of the day of course.

Actually surprised you're not blaming Firpo for winning us a penalty as well. I mean what was the idiot thinking of as it's obvious we'd miss it and give the opposition a lift whilst at the same time taking the wind out of our sails. Really should do better and off with his head I say.

 

[OLOF]

Tears in my eyes after seeing kev sinfield carry his best mate Rob burrows over the finish line at the end of Marathon at headingley stadium.....now that's what you call inspirational and a lesson for all who spread and do ****.....I can only admire him for what he's done and he can truly be called a hero....

If this picture doesn't bring a tear to your eyes you haven't got a heart

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[Eireleeds1]

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Watched end of race this morning. Unreal

 

[NostradEmus]

Slipped dear boy, or simply lost his footing as many better players than Firpo have done before leading to titles lost etc etc. Not sure that Firpo's slip did anything of the kind though as he had a team mate fully covering so nothing to worry about, unless your team mate then clatters the opponent when shepherding was the order of the day of course.

Actually surprised you're not blaming Firpo for winning us a penalty as well. I mean what was the idiot thinking of as it's obvious we'd miss it and give the opposition a lift whilst at the same time taking the wind out of our sails. Really should do better and off with his head I say.

Firpo is **** bud. Been telling you for two years now.

 

[Jammy 07]

Firpo is **** bud. Been telling you for two years now.

The guy has good and bad points to his game and is definitely no world beater but he was fully commited on Saturday and gave his all. Whatever his limitations if you're giving 100% then that's a good starting point and he certainly did that against Newcastle.

 

[NostradEmus]

The guy has good and bad points to his game and is definitely no world beater but he was fully commited on Saturday and gave his all. Whatever his limitations if you're giving 100% then that's a good starting point and he certainly did that against Newcastle.

If flapping at a ball in the area is 'fully committed' and professional then I'm glad the others aren't. He was wrong side for the red card....again. He doesn't learn from his mistakes, just replicates them. Doing something wrong once is a mistake, doing it twice is reckless, doing it 3 plus times is unforgivable. It's his job.

 

[Doc]

Firpo brought in as an attacking LWB and in fairness he is top notch in attack but a bit pants in defence. In a better defence I reckon he isn’t as bad as Emu thinks, but in a crap defence like ours Emu is nearer the mark

 

[milkyboy]

Only just seen this Doc, so apologies for the delay in replying.

from an XG point of view, Paddy should have scored 10 goal (well 9.77), so he is 6 below what you would expect. I have no idea if XG takes into account where a player completely misses the ball, that's something that maybe Milky can educate me on.

He has taken 2 penalties and missed them both, which would have an xg of 1.52, (however they were both poorly taken, not as if the keeper pulled of a wonder save).

PB has had 7 shots at goal from within the 6 yard box, one of which was saved by the keeper, 5 failed to hit the target, with the last resulting in a goal. He also had another 3 shots blocked by a defender from within the 6 yard box, but I would class those as scrambles and not rate them as being nailed on chances, and he has scored once. So 14% of his shots within the 6 yard box have been saved, 14% have resulted in a goal and 71% have missed the target, which does not make for good reading

In addition if you count chances from within the penalty area, that are within the width of the 6 yard box, so what I consider to be less speculative, then he has had a further 13 shots (not counting the 2 penalties), 5 of which were saved, 5 of which missed the target and 3 were scored. Again I've not included shots blocked by defenders. So 38.5% of his shots have been saved, 38.5% of his shots have gone wide and 23% have resulted in goals

Just for comparison as I am sure you will ask.

Rodrigo has had 4 chances from within the 6 yard box, all resulting in goals, plus 1 penalty which also resulted in a goal.

For shots within the penalty area, that are within the width of the 6 yard box, then Rodrigo has had a further 19 shots (not including those blocked by a defender), of which he has scored 4, 5 have been saved and 10 have been off target. So Rodrigo has scored with 21% of his chances within the penalty area from more than 6 yards away, 26% of those chances have been saved, whilst 53% have missed the target.

Basically if the chance is within the 6 yard box, then you want it to fall to Rodrigo. If its within the penalty area (not counting penalty kicks), then Bamford is less wasteful or more likely to at least force the keeper to make a save

Heat maps for both Bamford and Rodrigo -

Green = Goal Scored
Blue = Chance Saved
Red = Chance Missed

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Good question. Don’t know but suspect that an air shot doesn’t count towards xg, as it technically isn’t a shot and xg is purely shot based…

My take is xg gives a pretty good approximation of a side's ability to create chances. It’s weakness is in not accounting for the amount of good attacking positions that are wasted by poor final ball etc. It also doesn’t account for the match situation, ie sides defending a lead etc, would attack less. So it's not perfect, but as long as you understand what it does and doesn't tell you it gives a reasonable assessment of form.

For all a lot of people seem to hate it, (and not understand it at the same time) it’s the simplest and best approximation currently available for how a team is performing. It takes away how beautiful the football is or isn’t on the eye, what formation you're playing etc… and simply tells you (especially over the course of a season) whether your problem going forward is creating chances or taking them. And at the other end, whether your problem is giving up too many good chances - or not stopping the ones you do give up.

As you have pointed out Aski… rod’s efficiency has to some degree cancelled out paddy’s inefficiency. This year though our primary problem has been at the other end. Endless defensive fck ups and keeper errors... leading to too many chances. And also being poorer than average at blocking/saving them when we do give them up. Probably also being unfortunate that opposition players seem to have brought their shooting boots more often than not. Our xgA - expected goals against is less than actual.

Meslier's stats aren't pretty even before you look at the dropped crosses, shots palmed back out into the danger area.

Leeds, Leicester and Southampton have terrible discrepancies between goals conceded and expected goals against. Everton, meanwhile, are the opposite. Suggests the difference in quality of defenders and keepers... and most likely a bit of luck. Fulham's is unbelievable. They either have the best keeper in the league by a street or have been hugely fortunate. I'm going with the latter - if they don't strengthen in the summer they'll be in the relegation mix next year. I predicted Leicester and wolves to struggle this year on the same basis.

In short. We’re in the bottom 3 but have ‘performed’ largely to a mid/lower-midtable level which is why Emu and I have directed most of our frustration at our defenders… whilst coming under a torrent of ‘Marsh fanboy’ abuse

And yes, my 'retirement' of rambling on about xg didn't last.

 

[Marcos Barber]

Slipped dear boy, or simply lost his footing as many better players than Firpo have done before leading to titles lost etc etc. Not sure that Firpo's slip did anything of the kind though as he had a team mate fully covering so nothing to worry about, unless your team mate then clatters the opponent when shepherding was the order of the day of course.

Actually surprised you're not blaming Firpo for winning us a penalty as well. I mean what was the idiot thinking of as it's obvious we'd miss it and give the opposition a lift whilst at the same time taking the wind out of our sails. Really should do better and off with his head I say.

So he slipped with a man running past him which resulted in him falling over? That is his input on the first goal. He handballed it in the penalty area with his fingertips only just being far enough away from his body to give away the penalty directly leading to the second goal. He took one for the team by jumping on the back of his man who had beaten him resulting in a sending off and the chance for Trippier to bury the winner (he didn't of course but I can't give Firpo the credit for them not scoring when he wasn't even on the pitch).

Nah mate, I have waited long enough for him to come good - Emu is right

 

[Jammy 07]

- Emu is right

Outrageous comment.

Anyway I'd rather back our players through thick and thin, or maybe thin and thinner in this case.

Have you forgotten Firpo's winner against Southampton...stunning strike if I remember correctly