Friday November 11th Daily Thread

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R

ROTO

Well-Known Member
Jun 20, 2011
2,397
72
48
Dublin, Ireland
This one of my absolute favourite horses as he completed a very nice final day of Cheltenham last year along with Berties Dream

1.10 Cheltenham

Pigeon Island 16/1

Bit surprised at his price here and I'm absolutely delighted he's been given another chance over 3m tomorrow as I think that is now his best trip. His only previous effort over 3m came off a 1lb higher mark at Ludlow in March this year where he was a staying on 3rd and he was never really given a chance to win the race as it was merely a preparation run for the Cheltenham Festival. Although he was entered into a couple of races over 3m, he didn't get in and had to settle for the 2m1f Grand Annual where he unsuccessfully defended his crown. It wasn't really a surprise to me as I think he needs proper soft ground over this trip to be effective. He won the Grand Annual in 2010 off a mark of 129 and I really don't think his current mark of 132 is beyond him. Derek O'Connor is a good jockey booking in this Amateur riders contest. He won off a mark of 141 in 2008. He's one of the iffiest jumpers about but he virtually always seem to make it round so that isn't too much of a concern for me. My only concern is his record fresh isn't great although his effort of 3m was on the back of a 3 month break so I am not too concerned. Nigel Twiston Davis is one of the best trainers around for readying a horse for their seasonal debuts and if on song I hope he is played from a mile back late on to land this Class 3 contest.
 
Just the 2 for me at Cheltenham Friday, both trained by Paul Nicholls.

In the 1.45 Crack Away Jack makes his debut for Nicholls after his well-publicised departure from Emma Lavelle's yard. Whilst not wanting to get into an argument about each trainers merits it has proven so often that a change of scenery can really liven up a horse and I think 142 could look a very decent mark if he can bounce back to his best here.

At 2.55 we have a tremendous looking Grade 2 hurdle and another Paul Nicholls runner Prospect Wells gets my vote here. One of a number of horses that owner Graham Wylie has transferred from the banned Howard Johnson to champion trainer Paul Nicholls, Propspect Wells made a very encouraging debut when overcoming all sorts of interference to win going away in the manner of a decent horse. This is clearly a step up but his flat speed (won a G3 in France and a listed race in England on the flat) and the prevailing good ground make him a big player in this.
 
I'm with you roto. the pigeon is my absolute top beast in training, and for the same reason. backed him and tipped him up that day. he'll be tricky for an amateur tho so I hope d'oc feels strong tomorrow. in-running at big odds for me.
 
Odddy Crack Away Jack has had a breathing op as well <ok> think he wins tomorrow. Also with you on Prospect Wells

Chesney Derek O'Connor is a seriously talented rider will have no problems handing the old Pigeon rogue who is also one of my favs <ok> would love to see him win tomorrow
 
Watch out for Mr Henderson's horse in the first tomorrow - that N. de Boinville is some cousin or great nephew or whatever and I'm sure that the forum's favourite trainer will have Bai Zhu spot, and I do mean spot, on for this one <ok>
 
In the 1.45 tomorrow I like the look of Imsingingtheblues- 14/1 (will shorten.) David Pipe thinks very highly of this horse was disappointing in the festival when going off 4/1 favourite but has run some decent races lately and should just keep improving!
 
1.10 Time For Spring

Longsdon's team were in cracking form earlier in the year but he's just had a quiet enough spell the last couple of weeks. There have been plenty of placed efforts so i'm prepared to take a chance in this. Time FOr Spring has only the one chase start to his name and his lack of experience is a slight concern. However, he is open to significant improvement which cannot be said for a few of the others. Longsdon had a good run of things over the summer but i think it is interesting that he has saved this one for the winter. I can only assume that he thinks it a little above average and capable of taking a bigger prize. He has the services of Sam Waley-Cohen and should go close in this.

1.45 Crack Away Jack

Agree with the general forum consensus that Crack Away Jack should be taking this if he is anywhere near his best. With all eyes on him i would be very surprised if Nicholls didn't have him A1 to do himself justice first time out. Havinggotascoobydo has looked smart in two novice chase wins but has fallen once and shown jumping frailties on all 3 occasions. If his jumping holds he is entitled to run well but in a competitive handicap that might just find him out.

2.20 Garde Champetre

You need a good dollop of luck to negotiate the course but he should be winning this as, on this occasion, he isn't forced to give away lumps of weight to all the others. He should be a class above and even though he is getting a little long in the tooth he should still be good enough, with the excellent Nina Carberry up. Has had his usual hurdles prep which should put him spot on for this.

2.55 Prospect Wells

Steps To Freedom sets a very high standard but i just think that this Prospect Wells might be pretty smart. He jumped well enough the first day, despite reports suggesting he wasn't a natural. He encountered all kinds of trouble but eventually asserted in authoritative fashion to win comfortably. There looks to be a heap of improvement in him and i think he might be one to follow for the season ahead. He has a big task in this but reckon he might be up to it.

3.30

Minefield this one and will be leaving it alone!

4.05 Champion Court

I still think that Grand Crus might be a big disappointment over fences and i'll take my chance that he flops first time out. I hope he proves the exact opposite but i have a nasty feeling many people might not see what they hope tomorrow. I will be delighted to be proven wrong. Cue Card sets the standard and i think the form of his win is very solid. He would be my pick of the leading duo but i'm not entirely convinced by his jumping so i will take a chance on the well regarded Champion Court. He won well enough at Aintree but this stiffer test will be more to his liking. I think he might be worth an EW dabble but i'd be more confident if there were 3 places up for grabs.

Really looking forward to the action. Should be very exciting. I'm attending so will try and have a good look at the novices in the paddock to see if i can pick up any clues for the season ahead.

Best of luck to everyone tomorrow.
 
Right going for a bit of a left fielder for tomorrow.

6.45 Wolverhampton

Silver Native FC 66/1 (will be a monstrous price on the exchange)

One for only an absolutely tiny bet but I'm hoping Silver Native leaves all know form behind tomorrow to hopefully play a role in the finish at a huge price. He's shown absolutely nothing in a pair of maidens but he's a pretty decently bred animal boasting the below pedigree. There are a few other reasons why I'm hopeful for a drastic improvement. Firstly, the same thing occurred with another Mike Murphy horse this year in the shape of Il Pazzo on his 3rd start who left all known form behind when finishing a very good third at 150/1 behind some talented animals (although there was some glimmers of potential from his runs). Secondly, Martin Lane takes the ride tomorrow and has only ridden 1 Murphy 2 YO before which resulted in a winner (although an odds on shot). Murphy has an impressive 27% strike rate at the track this year and had a winner recently at the track which is a bonus. In all likelihood Silver Native is going to finish tailed off but at what should be a 3 figure price in the bookies tomorrow I'm willing to risk a few quid to see if he can improve beyond all recognition to take this

Sire: Elusive City (USA) (6.8f) Dam: Love Of Silver (USA) Dam's sire: Arctic Tern (USA) (11.9f)

(2yo £15,000) 11th foal, half-brother to quite useful Silver Bracelet, 1m winner at 3, Taxman, 12-16f winner at 3-4, Neve Lieve, 12f-2m winner at 3, 6f 2yo winner Duquesa & Horseford Hill, 10f winner at 3; dam high-class 6-7f winner at 2
 
looking forward to watchin Cheltenham tomorrow, couple of bets for me at cheltenham and one at Newcastle

12.30N Dubawi Phatom - from John Fergusons stable, who seem to win with everything they send out just now. Race doesn't look to great and if this one if not put off by experiences in its last race it should improve from its first race to be in the mix.

1.10C - Swing Bill - Has course form, run well off current mark before, weight amatuer takes off should help, will stay and i think has a good chance in a tricky looking opener, also think bottom weight Somatic will go well.

3.30C Shuil Royale - Looks better than current mark, nice opener last time and should come on. Very tricky race here.

4.05C Champion Court - Think he is maybe the forgotten horse in this race because of Grand Crus and Cue Card. Champion Court has top class form from last year, but seems to be forgotten because it was over staying distances. He has proven he jumps well enough if a bit novicey, has course form albeit over hurdles and i expect him to be well in the mix tomorrow. A very intrigueing race in prospect.
 
2.20: Uncle Junior 5/1 Seems to relish stamina tests and I am going to take Gard Champetre on at the age of 12. A superb horse in this sort of race and still a rightful favourite on these terms. However, he was beaten in this last season, and only won it narrowly the season before. I think he could be vulnerable to some younger legs. Uncle Junior was a very good 3rd to Muirhead last time, and that is good form.

2.55: Steps To Freedom 6/4 (NAP)- As some of you may remember (I know I spoke to Oddy about it when I last put this horse up), I have Steps To Freedom as very prominent, if not the top of my Supreme Novice Hurdle candidates list. I think he won with an awful lot more in hand last time than the winning margin suggests, getting hampered as the field stacked up and the false pace causing him to peck one or two hurdles. The quick ground will play right to his strengths in my opinion, and I think the quicker they go the better he will be, especially as the tempo increases 3 out. My main concern for his season as a whole is if he can handle soft ground, as he looks to have a fine turn of foot. However, I am hopeful of another good display tomorrow and this will tell us a little bit more about his credentials.
 
also thinking about a placepot at CHeltenham

Leg1: Swing Bill/Somatic
Leg2: Oh Crick/Quipe Me Posted
Leg3: Garde Champetre/Intac
Leg4: Prospect Wells/Steps To Freedom
Leg5: Shuil Royale
Leg6: Champion Court
 
Steps To Freedom and Cue Card are both jailcases in my opinion, Steps to Freedom in particular, Prospect Wells wont know whats hit him. Cant see Grand Crus having the pace to go with Cue Card on the ground today.
 
Morning All.
Amazing that I scoured the form books last night and came up with a few horses that I was sure no-one in here would have spotted, low and behold I think they've all been mentioned !

Great racing today, the Open meeting does tend to signal the real NH season.

1.10 Pigeon Island needs this ground and his disappointing runs last season may prove to be a blessing as his rating has dropped down to within 3lb of his Grand Annual win 18 months ago.
At around 12s he is a big player if fully wound up

1.45 Oh Crick hasn't won for 2.5 years and is another who has tumbled down the ratings, but he is just 8 years old and hasn't run out of class 1/2 company since his festival win in 2009, he also likes top of the ground and with 4 places up for grabs here today I think the 12s available is great each way value.

2.20 Garde Champetre one of my favourite horses of recent years, sure this code isn't everyone's thing but he's been a great servant and despite almost 13 years old (Didn't Spotty win the festival cross country at 13 ?) he should be giving this lot 2 stone, Nina resumes the partnership and 8/11 won't tempt many in but this could be a case of free money.

3.30 Credit Swap has disappointed over timber and could well be one that has fallen out of love with the game, but it was only 13 months ago he was hosing up in a Cambridgeshire and looked very keen when last seen out at Carlisle just a couple of weeks ago.
33/1 is a price I can't ignore knowing how much talent this horse has

4.05 Cue Card in a fascinating duel with Grand Crus.
I favour CC mainly because of the distance as I think Grand Crus could well turn out to be the better chasing prospect in time, but I think Pipe's charge will need a stamina test and upwards of 3m in time whereas CC has show he has speed.
One for small stakes possibly as the better measure will be where they go and what they do in 4 months, but for todays race I'm favouring the former Bumper winner

Good luck
 
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