The Run In, It's 2023 And We're In Another Relegation Fight Edition

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Schad

Schad

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Aug 6, 2011
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We're still technically alive, and that means it's time for another thread on the remaining fixtures of the teams that might get relegated. Because the universe wants me to spend more time with a spreadsheet, there are nine such teams that are still conceivably in the relegation fight.

For the sake of having a benchmark here: the average PL team has taken 1.38 points this season. So a number below that indicates an easier-than-average schedule, and a number above that indicates a harder-than-average schedule. Not a perfect gauge obviously as your own record factors in, but the nine relegation-threatened sides are close enough in the standings that it's not a big difference.


Beginning with...


CRYSTAL PALACE: 27 POINTS, -16 GD.

Remaining matches: 10, 5 home/5 away.
Against relegation contenders: 8
Opponent points/game, home: 0.93
Opponent points/game, away: 1.19
Opponent points/game, overall: 1.06

It's hard to imagine a softer schedule. There are nine teams that might get relegated. Palace is one of those. Palace plays all of the other eight in their final ten matches.

It should be damned near impossible for Palace to get relegated under the circumstances, despite being only a result away from the drop zone at current. Realistically, three wins in 10 is enough for them to cruise it. However, if they go into freefall, they could also single-handedly raise the bar for survival, given how many teams in the bottom half they will be playing. Which would be hilarious, but also probably bad for us.


WOLVES: 27 POINTS, -19 GD.

Remaining matches: 10, 5 home/5 away.
Against relegation contenders: 4
Opponent points/game, home: 1.25
Opponent points/game, away: 1.59
Opponent points/game, overall: 1.42

Wolves are a sleeper pick for a somewhat-unexpected side to get dragged down this season. Their schedule isn't abnormally difficult, but it isn't easy either, and after their back-to-back wins over Liverpool (actually impressive) and Nathan Jones (not an accomplishment), they have 4 points in 5 and their margin of error has decreased significantly. A complete inability to get goals from their strikers, to an extent that makes Che Adams and friends look like a squad of Erling Haaland clones, is the sort of thing that makes a person nervous when you need to win that declining count of six-pointers.


LEEDS: 26 POINTS, -9 GD.

Remaining matches: 11, 6 home/5 away.
Against relegation contenders: 5
Opponent points/game, home: 1.34
Opponent points/game, away: 1.59
Opponent points/game, overall: 1.45

Leeds has a relatively difficult schedule, paired with somewhat-uneven form. The good news/bad news is that they've done reasonably well in their six-pointers in recent months, but their schedule is pretty front-loaded: they finish the year with three of their final four matches against teams currently in the top five, so if they don't rack up points soon, it's going to get seriously difficult for them to close it out.


EVERTON: 26 POINTS, -18 GD.

Remaining matches: 10, 5 home/5 away.
Against relegation contenders: 4
Opponent points/game, home: 1.63
Opponent points/game, away: 1.29
Opponent points/game, overall: 1.46

Everton has a difficult schedule, made more difficult by the fact that their home matches are particularly challenging. They're hinging their hopes on a good-enough record under Dyche, and a very competitive record against good sides (with the exception of getting speed-bagged by Arsenal), but their margin of error is pretty small. Two six-pointers in their final two (Wolves away, Bournemouth home) could loom large for someone.


FOREST: 26 POINTS, -27 GD.

Remaining matches: 11, 5 home/6 away.
Against relegation contenders: 4
Opponent points/game, home: 1.57
Opponent points/game, away: 1.32
Opponent points/game, overall: 1.43

Forest also has a fairly difficult remaining schedule, made worse by a few factors: their miserable goal differential, their poor form (2 points in 6 matches), and the fact that the stats show that they really suck at football: they have the 2nd-worst xG and the fourth-worst xGA in the league. Their next two are Wolves home, and Leeds away: they desperately need points in those matches, or they are in as much trouble as anyone, because their remaining matches from there are arguably the toughest in the PL.


LEICESTER: 25 POINTS, -9 GD.

Remaining matches:11, 6 home/5 away.
Against relegation contenders: 6
Opponent points/game, home: 1.12
Opponent points/game, away: 1.49
Opponent points/game, overall: 1.39

Leicester's schedule is fairly close to par, with an obvious path to survival: win some of their home matches, which feature four six-pointers, and they should be okay. Only problem is that winning home matches hasn't been their strong suit: they have one home win in the league since the World Cup break. That probably needs to change.


WEST HAM: 24 POINTS, -10 GD.

Remaining matches: 12, 6 home/6 away.
Against relegation contenders: 5
Opponent points/game, home: 1.60
Opponent points/game, away: 1.34
Opponent points/game, overall: 1.47

The numbers say that West Ham shouldn't be here. They have, by a large margin, the best expected points total among the relegation-threatened sides. And they have 1-2 games in hand over everyone else. The problem is that they're in the relegation zone and have a tougher schedule than the teams above them; their recent form (10 points in 8) is okay, but that also followed five straight losses. Having to play mid-week in Europey 2: Eclectic Boogaloo doesn't make life easier, either.


BOURNEMOUTH: 24 POINTS, -29 GD.

Remaining matches: 11, 6 home/5 away.
Against relegation contenders: 6
Opponent points/game, home: 1.39
Opponent points/game, away: 1.08
Opponent points/game, overall: 1.25

On paper, Bournemouth has a relatively favourable schedule, though one weighted toward easier away matches than home. The problem they face is that all of the numbers say that they are bad. They are miles worse than any other side in expected points, their goal differential is paralleled only by Forest, and they have shipped on average 2 goals per match: only two teams in the PL era have survived while giving up so many goals. The good news is that one of those happened just last year, with Leeds.


SOUTHAMPTON: 23 POINTS, -23 GD.

Remaining matches:10, 5 home/5 away.
Against relegation contenders: 4
Opponent points/game, home: 1.43
Opponent points/game, away: 1.57
Opponent points/game, overall: 1.50

The bad news is that we're bottom of the table, with the hardest remaining schedule, joint-fewest remaining matches overall, and the joint-fewest number of matches against fellow strugglers. The good news is that everyone sucks, and if we can not suck that might be enough. The other bad news is that not-sucking might be a bridge too far for us. If not for the Nathan Jones era, we might be in reasonably good shape, but alas: our margin of error is seriously small, and we'll have a very good idea whether we can survive by late afternoon next Sunday.
 
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Nice work Schad.

The part missing from these conversations always seems to be the weighting of fighting for your life in the EPL. Us v Spurs a prime example. I'd take Liverpool on the last weekend of the season over Everton all day any day.

Palace having a seemingly easy run is complicated by the fact that everyone they are playing are fighting for their lives. Us having a tough run in is complicated by the fact that we seem to get points where we aren't supposed to and the teams we are playing wont have as much to fight for as us.

It'll be right down to the wire I reckon.
 
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SaintinNZ said:
Nice work Schad.

The part missing from these conversations always seems to be the weighting of fighting for your life in the EPL. Us v Spurs a prime example. I'd take Liverpool on the last weekend of the season over Everton all day any day.

Palace having a seemingly easy run is complicated by the fact that everyone they are playing are fighting for their lives. Us having a tough run in is complicated by the fact that we seem to get points where we aren't supposed to and the teams we are playing wont have as much to fight for as us.

It'll be right down to the wire I reckon.
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Absolutely agree. Our final three fixtures could actually be generous to us - Fulham (won't likely be fighting for Europe at that point), Brighton (probably confirmed in their European place, won't have a shot at top four) and Liverpool (confirmed whether or not it's CL or regular Europe).
 
The likes of Fulham, Brentford and Brighton will be going for record points tallies if not better.

Can't see them losing motivation. Maybe squad fitness will be an issue for them though.

Liverpool will need the win for 4th, you just know it.
 
My current feeling, particularly when factoring in our poor GD, is that we'll need 38 points to survive. Anything between 35 and 39 points I think is very realistic, but 38 is where my current thinking is.

That would mean us needing another 15 points, and I just can't see that happening. It would require either five wins and five defeats, or four wins, three draws and three defeats. No way do I only see us losing another three games, so the second of those two scenarios is off my table. I do think it's conceivable that we could limit ourselves to only five more defeats - but are we really going to then win the other five? I could accept the argument that we have (at least) five winnable games, but that is different to saying that we're actually going to get five wins. That's a heck of an ask.

Even if the bar was to be down at 35 or 36 points, I'm dubious if we could get there. But it's a least more plausible than us getting to 38 points.

The last time it was this tight between so many teams at this stage of the season, right down to 20th, was in 2010-11. Wigan were 20th on 27 points. WBA were 17th on 29 points. Everton were 10th on 34 points. Everyone had played 28 games. In the end, Birmingham were seconds away from being relegated on 40 points (they actually got relegated on 39 points, but that was only because they lost in the very last second whilst in pursuit of a winning goal vs Spurs. Prior to that, they and Wolves were both on 40 points and with the same GD, but Wolves were ahead on GS. So Birmingham needed to turn their draw into a win.) FYI, Blackpool also went down on 39 points, whilst West Ham went down on 33 points.

Broadly speaking, teams in 2010-11 were about four points ahead of where things are now in 2022-23. But not everyone has yet played 28 games this season. So maybe cut that four point difference to a three point difference. If that is any sort of barometer (ie 40 points and a bad GD could have got you relegated in 2010-11), then that would fit in with a target this season of 37 points and a good GD (which we don't have) or 38 points and a bad GD.
 
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I'd be surprised if the bar were that high. My expectation is that some teams will still get dropped off the back, with ourselves, Bournemouth and Forest seeming like the most likely suspects. 38 would be a fairly high target in an average season, and one where there are nine teams below the point/game threshold definitely isn't average. 36 points is probably enough, honestly.
 
Schad said:
I'd be surprised if the bar were that high. My expectation is that some teams will still get dropped off the back, with ourselves, Bournemouth and Forest seeming like the most likely suspects. 38 would be a fairly high target in an average season, and one where there are nine teams below the point/game threshold definitely isn't average. I'd be pretty surprised if 36 points didn't do it, honestly.
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I completely agree about 38 being a high target in an average season.

It's why I went back to a season which is most comparable to this one, in terms of the vast number of teams still being involved and no-one yet being cut adrift. This season can't really be compared to an average season. And it's interesting that 2010-11 is a rare season where 38 would have been too low a target; where you had a team sitting on 40 points, desperately trying to score a goal because even that total wasn't going to keep them up.

Off the top of my head, since West Ham went down 20 years on 42 points, it's the only season I can think of where the survival target was that high.

Maybe 2010-11 is too much of an anomaly. But it's arguably the closest comparison which exists to this season.

As I say, teams were about three to four points further ahead that season than this season. So I definitely don't think they'll be anyone on 40 points this season who is desperately trying to increase that total. But it does maybe indicate that 37 or 38 could be required this season. Though I wouldn't be surprised it a side stayed up on 36 points, especially with a good GD.

It's fairly likely that at least one side will be cut adrift over the coming weeks. But interestingly, that didn't happen back in 2010-11. Yes, West Ham ended up being relegated by a bit of a margin, but with four games to go they were only two points adrift of 17th (and with an identical GD).
 
st_brendy said:
I completely agree about 38 being a high target in an average season.

It's why I went back to a season which is most comparable to this one, in terms of the vast number of teams still being involved and no-one yet being cut adrift. This season can't really be compared to an average season. And it's interesting that 2010-11 is a rare season where 38 would have been too low a target; where you had a team sitting on 40 points, desperately trying to score a goal because even that total wasn't going to keep them up.

Off the top of my head, since West Ham went down 20 years on 42 points, it's the only season I can think of where the survival target was that high.

Maybe 2010-11 is too much of an anomaly. But it's arguably the closest comparison which exists to this season.

As I say, teams were about three to four points further ahead that season than this season. So I definitely don't think they'll be anyone on 40 points this season who is desperately trying to increase that total. But it does maybe indicate that 37 or 38 could be required this season. Though I wouldn't be surprised it a side stayed up on 36 points, especially with a good GD.

It's fairly likely that at least one side will be cut adrift over the coming weeks. But interestingly, that didn't happen back in 2010-11. Yes, West Ham ended up being relegated by a bit of a margin, but with four games to go they were only two points adrift of 17th (and with an identical GD).
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There's also 2014-15, where only one team was cut loose at this time...or at least appeared to be. Every team from 12th down was on no more than 30 points from 28, with Leicester looking to be dead and buried. Leicester recovered, and 36 points was ultimately good enough for survival thanks to Hull crashing and burning.

Margins are certainly fine, though, and having so many bad teams playing one another does mean that there are more points to be shared around among that group.
 
st_brendy said:
I completely agree about 38 being a high target in an average season.

It's why I went back to a season which is most comparable to this one, in terms of the vast number of teams still being involved and no-one yet being cut adrift. This season can't really be compared to an average season. And it's interesting that 2010-11 is a rare season where 38 would have been too low a target; where you had a team sitting on 40 points, desperately trying to score a goal because even that total wasn't going to keep them up.

Off the top of my head, since West Ham went down 20 years on 42 points, it's the only season I can think of where the survival target was that high.

Maybe 2010-11 is too much of an anomaly. But it's arguably the closest comparison which exists to this season.

As I say, teams were about three to four points further ahead that season than this season. So I definitely don't think they'll be anyone on 40 points this season who is desperately trying to increase that total. But it does maybe indicate that 37 or 38 could be required this season. Though I wouldn't be surprised it a side stayed up on 36 points, especially with a good GD.

It's fairly likely that at least one side will be cut adrift over the coming weeks. But interestingly, that didn't happen back in 2010-11. Yes, West Ham ended up being relegated by a bit of a margin, but with four games to go they were only two points adrift of 17th (and with an identical GD).
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Excellent post.
 
History shows (I think) that 35-38 points should be enough to keep you up. One challenge is for us to get to that total, the other factor is what the teams around us do. Some teams may implode, some may go on an amazing run. I remember Sunderland one year, possibly under Big Sam, escaped against the odds, winning at a decent Chelsea side on the way. Could that be us this year?

There are going to be weekends where those around us have to drop points because a lot of them will be playing each other. That should keep us in with a chance, providing we can get a few wins of our own. I think one thing's for sure - it's probably going to go down to the wire.
 
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There has been no mention on this thread about Everton's possible (probable/highly likely/nailed on/confirmed, choose any appropriate adjective) points deduction, which might (might) consign them to relegation, meaning that there will be only two places to avoid. Even if a points deduction does happen, before the end of this season, it won't necessarily help Saints' cause, but it could be of benefit, as we'd only need to be better than two other teams. OK, I'm straw clutching...
 
Ronnie Hotdog (MLsfc) said:
Or the 8 which came before it, take your pick.

Based on Selles point per game so far, if he had been in charge for the 9 league games Jones was, we would survive comfortably.
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True and he was right under our noses after Hassenhuttl rightfully was binned.

That Wolves game is the killer though. I’ve followed Saints for 30 years and that is the worst result in my lifetime
 
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Archers Road said:
It's pretty clear now that if there was a right time to bin Ralph, it wasn't mid season.
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Don’t think I agree with that. Think it was who we appointed was the problem. I think Ralph was done. Agree he should’ve gone at the end of last season though

If we had appointed a manager who got more than 1(?) win in the 9 games Jones had we would still be in with a very good shot of staying up
 
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Saintmagic said:
Don’t think I agree with that. Think it was who we appointed was the problem. I think Ralph was done. Agree he should’ve gone at the end of last season though

If we had appointed a manager who got more than 1(?) win in the 9 games Jones had we would still be in with a very good shot of staying up
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I think he was also done because he wasn’t really backed, and he knew for months that SR were binning him
 
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