No one wins wars. That’s the point you seem to be missing. The cycle of violence only ever ends with a negotiated settlement acceptable to both sides, and if you think NATO expansion up to The Don will ever be acceptable to Russia, under any leader, you are deluding yourself.
NATO expansion didn't cause this war, and it won't have any meaningful part in the peace, either. The end result, and consequently what is 'acceptable' to Russia, is effectively whatever Russia can enforce. Their intent was to enforce a state of affairs where Ukraine ceased to exist, which we know because Russia continually stated their intent. The less able Russia is to enforce a peace favourable to them, the more favourable the peace will be to Ukraine. And right now, Ukraine is more in a position to dictate terms than Russia.
