Russia have already played their hand though, they've been targeting primarily civilian targets since day one and then cut off oil to the EU as a second ultimatum.
Russia drew a line in the sand when they said that no one is allowed in any way to intervene in this conflict, the following weeks NATO intervened and Russia did nothing.
It said any further NATO members would be a clear sign of aggression and there would be consequences, Russia did nothing.
Russia said the sending of long range weapons to the Ukrainian military would be seen as direct involvement. They did nothing.
Ukraine has been bombarding inside Russian territory and now a car bombing happened right outside the capital and Russia has done nothing.
I say go at them.
I've not followed it in that much detail tbh but I see what you mean. It depends on russian civilian casualties as that could backfire in terms of their ppl actually supporting Putin's narrative and wider general public opinion.
Also depends on what the U.S. authorises and how far the West is prepared to go and how much we arm them. Especially when they need those weapons in the Donbas to try to push the russians back. Their priority seems to be defending Odessa atm watching the news.

