Derby's remaining fixtures: Coventry at home Preston at home Swansea away Fulham at home QPR away Bristol City at home Blackpool away Cardiff at home Barnsley's remaining fixtures Sheff U away Reading home Millwall away Swansea away Peterborough at home Huddersfield away Blackpool home PNE home WBA away Reading's remaining fixtures Blackburn home Barnsley away Stoke home Cardiff home Sheff U away Swansea home Hull City away WBA home Luton away City's remaining fixtures: Coventry away Luton home Huddersfield home Boro away Cardiff home Millwall away Reading home Bristol City away Forest home Current league table: We've got by far the toughest run in I reckon, so we'll need every point we can get. Our goal difference is really important here too, the teams around us (bar Derby) have abysmal records so that's like having an extra point on the board. 3 wins and 2 draws from those puts us at 49. So if we manage that (which we won't, but if we did): Barnsley need 6 wins and a draw just to catch us up and a massive swing in goal difference. Derby would need 8 wins to catch us, anything else and they can't. Reading would need 5 wins and 2 draws to catch us. 3 wins is massively optimistic, but we have to target the Reading, Bristol and Cardiff games. We could feasibly get something out of Luton but given our home form, I'm not optimistic. Come on City, get limping over that line so we can start the overhaul.
Think we can hope to get 8 points out of that lot. Give or take. Reckon another 4 will probably see us safe but it would depend on us not handing 3 to Reading.
Derby look to have run out of steam and accepted the inevitable. They won't catch us. Pboro look gone but may pick up results as the pressure lifts as their fate is sealed. Similarly, some of our games may well be damp squibs where the oppo have nowt to play for either.
That's good analysis. For some more context... Barnsley, who are now performing well, have amassed 20 points (5w, 5d) in the last 22 games. They need to match that form in the next nine games to reach 48 points. Derby, who have dropped off a cliff, have amassed 24 points (7w, 3d) in the last 20 games. They need to match that form in the next eight games to reach 48 points. Peterborough are ****ed, I can't be bothered to look up their stats. If we reach 48 points we are untouchable. To be honest, I think 44 would be enough, that would leave Derby needing 6w and 2d in their last 8 games, and Barnsley needing 5w and 2d in their last 9 games.
For Peterborough to overtake us assuming my points total, they'd have to win eight of their last ten games and we'd have to lose every game. That isn't going to happen. Hence why I didn't even bother including them. Also, that's interesting info on Barnsley and Derby. I think the latter have ****ed it now.
Just remember guys at the end of the season like at the beginning you get freak results and the two promoted teams may not try - just being optimistic as usual !!
9 matches left, we need to win 3 to stay up, so we could in reality lose 6. If we can't do that frankly we don't deserve to stay up!
It would take one heck of a collapse by us (as if?!?) and one hell of a run by at least 2 teams below us ..... but ..... looking at the run in, it certainly ain't over yet!!
Get a point tonight and that’s good going. Home form will always sort itself out in the long run, staying unbeaten away is impressive and that’s what we need to aim for tonight.
Tough game tonight then Luton, Huddersfield and Middlesborough, I would say they are all obviously big games but the Luton home game is massive because even though they are a decent side for me it gives us the best chance of 3 points. The form Barnsley are in I can see them getting out of it so for me we are looking at Reading (8pts behind us) which is good but it only takes a win for them and a lose for us and suddenly a five point difference isn’t so big. Our home form has to improve massively( no goals in last four is not good), however having points in the bag means a couple of wins puts a lot of pressure on the others.
I can see Barnsley getting a maximum 13 points at a push Reading 10 max . 4 /5 more points will do it
Looking at those, I’d fancy us to just stay up, Barnsley to get out of it by my predictions & us to survive by the skin of our teeth. We might get 6? Derby 11 Barnsley 12 Reading maybe 6?
Points deductions aside... It really shows have under invested the squad was for this season. We will hopefully have a lucky escape, but I would not be surprised to see 10 in and out and a hugely different starting 11. Midfield is poor. Then upfront. We could survive with the defence I feel If they were better protected and we put it in the onion bag a little more.
We need to secure our survival asap - do we have the experience & leadership if we get dragged into a relegation dog fight. If it goes to the last game of the season, we will bottle it
We’ll get 9/10 points from those games… Mind you I’m the worst gambler in history So what the **** do I know… Update… that’s 3 of the 9/10 points !!!!
I can easily see Barnsley potentially catching us, although I can't see Reading, Derby or Peterborough doing so, I suspect 4 or 5 points will be enough this season, don't forget 2 out of those 3 teams have suffered points deductions which lowers the bar for survival.
