Daily Racing Thread Saturday 5th. June 2021
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Epsom made it a recommendation this week but it is not compulsory here today.
anyway sun is shining, got a beer in and the more I look at the racecard the harder today looks!
Well, I had High Definition ante-post at 25/1 and then did Southern Lights at 66/1 ante-post. I later added Van Gogh at 16/1 because I felt he might just be a 10F type who could just about get away with it at Epsom but perhaps struggle to get the trip elsewhere. The latter goes to France tomorrow, while High Definition is being kept for the Irish Derby. The way Aidan framed it was that it gave Bolshoi Ballet and High Definition the chance to win a Derby each. That would suggest that Bolshoi Ballet will not go to the Curragh if he wins today and you would think that the logical alternative would be to take on the older horses in the Eclipse and try to take advantage of the weight allowance from his elders.
With that in mind, I have had a bet on Bolshoi Ballet for the Eclipse at 10/1 because victory today would surely see him cut and after "The lads" have cogitated, as they always do it seems, an intention for Sandown would surely see his odds sliced further. If he fails to see the trip out today, the drop to the Eclipse trip may also be an option.
If Bolshoi Ballet is to be beaten today it will most likely be that he is outstayed by the more assured 12F horses.
I think the rain has come for Third Realm. He seemed to outspeed Adayar last time but the Godolphin horse looked a big ponderous colt and all impressions of speed are relative. I wouldn't have given Third Realm much hope on quick ground but the softer ground may assist.
In comparison Mohaafeth has been said by his trainer not to want it soft. My concern with Mohaafeth is that he won a 4 horse race last time and it was more or less a match. Secret Protector was odds-on that day but didn't run his race and it is tricky to quantify how far below form he performed. The Haggas colt had looked mildly progressive prior to that but suddenly rose 19 lbs to 111. I am dubious about that figure and he will need more to win a Derby anyway. Good luck to those who backed him at big odds ante-post though, he is here in an open race outside the Fav.
I don't think John Leeper is quite good enough but he is clearly going the right way. This is a lot deeper race than his last one though.
I have doubts about Mac Swiney stepping up to 12F after his Irish Guineas win. He ran home on fumes from Poetic Flare that day an his overall profile does not scream Derby to me.
One Ruler is popular and was 6th in the Guineas but he does not look like he will stay and he seems a poor price now, given that he was 40/1 and has done nothing since to enhance his claims.
Youth Spirit won the Chester Vase but I think that was a very poor renewal, and both the fav and 2nd fav stank the place out that day. I would be shocked if he were to win today.
Gear Up should appreciate the rainfall but he was disappointing last time and Dubai Fountain was awful for the stable in yesterday's Oaks.
In the end I went with Hurricane Lane. I thought there were enough reasons for High Definition to reverse form from the Dante but he's not here and it's a moot point for now. If Hurricane Lane does win today, the O'Brien team are bound to rue not giving the Dante 3rd the chance to turn it around. I had been worried about Hurrucane Lane perhaps getting outpaced at this track on quick ground but the rain should offset that and the strong impression form the Dante was that the winner and 3rd would be better served by the extra distance of the Derby. I believe Hurricane Run would have won any of the other trials, barring, perhaps, the Derrinstown and he should be thereabouts today.
I did a saver forecast with Bolshoi Ballet/Hurricane Lane.
4.30 Epsom Hurricane Lane 6/1
Good luck all.
With that in mind, I have had a bet on Bolshoi Ballet for the Eclipse at 10/1 because victory today would surely see him cut and after "The lads" have cogitated, as they always do it seems, an intention for Sandown would surely see his odds sliced further. If he fails to see the trip out today, the drop to the Eclipse trip may also be an option.
If Bolshoi Ballet is to be beaten today it will most likely be that he is outstayed by the more assured 12F horses.
I think the rain has come for Third Realm. He seemed to outspeed Adayar last time but the Godolphin horse looked a big ponderous colt and all impressions of speed are relative. I wouldn't have given Third Realm much hope on quick ground but the softer ground may assist.
In comparison Mohaafeth has been said by his trainer not to want it soft. My concern with Mohaafeth is that he won a 4 horse race last time and it was more or less a match. Secret Protector was odds-on that day but didn't run his race and it is tricky to quantify how far below form he performed. The Haggas colt had looked mildly progressive prior to that but suddenly rose 19 lbs to 111. I am dubious about that figure and he will need more to win a Derby anyway. Good luck to those who backed him at big odds ante-post though, he is here in an open race outside the Fav.
I don't think John Leeper is quite good enough but he is clearly going the right way. This is a lot deeper race than his last one though.
I have doubts about Mac Swiney stepping up to 12F after his Irish Guineas win. He ran home on fumes from Poetic Flare that day an his overall profile does not scream Derby to me.
One Ruler is popular and was 6th in the Guineas but he does not look like he will stay and he seems a poor price now, given that he was 40/1 and has done nothing since to enhance his claims.
Youth Spirit won the Chester Vase but I think that was a very poor renewal, and both the fav and 2nd fav stank the place out that day. I would be shocked if he were to win today.
Gear Up should appreciate the rainfall but he was disappointing last time and Dubai Fountain was awful for the stable in yesterday's Oaks.
In the end I went with Hurricane Lane. I thought there were enough reasons for High Definition to reverse form from the Dante but he's not here and it's a moot point for now. If Hurricane Lane does win today, the O'Brien team are bound to rue not giving the Dante 3rd the chance to turn it around. I had been worried about Hurrucane Lane perhaps getting outpaced at this track on quick ground but the rain should offset that and the strong impression form the Dante was that the winner and 3rd would be better served by the extra distance of the Derby. I believe Hurricane Run would have won any of the other trials, barring, perhaps, the Derrinstown and he should be thereabouts today.
I did a saver forecast with Bolshoi Ballet/Hurricane Lane.
4.30 Epsom Hurricane Lane 6/1
Good luck all.
Afternoon all, having a lazy days betting today and will follow Oisin Murphys rides. Has 6 and the only one race he's not riding is in the Derby. In that race I will go ew on MOHAAFETH.
In the Epsom Dash Sunday Sovereign looks short enough. He was a speedy 2YO but he flopped in the Norfolk and then spent a year on the sidelines. A complete failure on his sole start for Roger Varian, he moved on again and was in the wilderness until a recent second at York. That seems to have signalled some sort of a return to form and although he reversed form from a previous run behind Copper Knight, he is 3 lbs worse off with that rival today.
The ground was soft at York last time and although Copper Knight was ridden to lead that day, he faded into fifth place. With today's track and going a little more likely to suit I have stuck with Copper Knight to bounce back here and he is still well below his best career marks on 90.
Plenty here look in the Handicapper's grasp still and my other one for this race is one of them. Stone Of Destiny is perhaps a shade high in the weights but should go well. The Portland winner last season and probably better at 5F than 6F, he is drawn next door to Copper Knight, so I have done a reverse forecast on them.
3.45 Epsom Copper Knight 7/1
Stone Of Destiny/Copper Knight RF
The ground was soft at York last time and although Copper Knight was ridden to lead that day, he faded into fifth place. With today's track and going a little more likely to suit I have stuck with Copper Knight to bounce back here and he is still well below his best career marks on 90.
Plenty here look in the Handicapper's grasp still and my other one for this race is one of them. Stone Of Destiny is perhaps a shade high in the weights but should go well. The Portland winner last season and probably better at 5F than 6F, he is drawn next door to Copper Knight, so I have done a reverse forecast on them.
3.45 Epsom Copper Knight 7/1
Stone Of Destiny/Copper Knight RF
Both beaten in a photo!!Century Dream the best bet for me tomorow in the 3.10 Small double with King Frankel in the first and that’s the day paid for
Air To Air is all the rage for David's brother George Boughey in the finale at Doncaster. He makes his Handicap bow after winning a Novice race last time. The Handicapper has rated him 81 and that makes him co-top weight with two others. The stable are doing well, especially with their 2YO's but 7/4 wasn't much of a price for me.
I did Surprise Picture, who ran OK last time off 81 when third and runs off the same mark today. The winner of that race went in again since and Hugo Palmer is firing at 26%, so I thought the son of Kodiac was worth an each-way play at 25/1.
4.50 Doncaster Surprise Picture 25/1 EW
I did Surprise Picture, who ran OK last time off 81 when third and runs off the same mark today. The winner of that race went in again since and Hugo Palmer is firing at 26%, so I thought the son of Kodiac was worth an each-way play at 25/1.
4.50 Doncaster Surprise Picture 25/1 EW
That seems a but defeatist. It's not like it is heavy ground and there is only one Epsom Derby.
Copper Knight burst out like a rocket but he could not sustain his effort and faded into 7th. Stone Of Destiny was awkward in the stalls and was in arrears early. He had a fairly hopeless position but finished really strongly for 3rd place. I thought that was an excellent effort under top weight and he should have been second at least. Probably won't help his handicap mark but that was a classy effort from his 102 mark.
Well pick the bones out of that one. Adayar had shown all the pace of Boaty McBoatface behind Third Realm last time but led this lot a merry dance today. The runner up was maiden, beaten in a Newbury maiden last time. WTF?
Hurricane Lane did his best but was short of pace most of the way, a respectable effort in third.
Bolshoi Ballet simply seemed to lack the petrol for this and perhaps the Derrinstown just wasn't very good. Southern Lights, who should have been second there was never a factor today. I would imagine Bolshoi Ballet drops back in trip now.
John Leeper looked to be coming with a run but he petered out very quickly.
Mac Swiney and Third Realm ran OK but on the book the latter should technically have won this. Was this another example of Varian having them cherry ripe for the trail and not for the big race itself?
Mark Johnston has yet another pathetic attempt to win a Classic.
Well done to Adam Kirby and nice to see the Ballydoyle stranglehold broken for once. A 107 rated horse has won the Derby and a 94 rated RPR has finished second. I dare say they will try to twist the figures to rate Adayar 120 after that but plenty didn't run their races today. I would imagine Ballydoyle somewhat regret only running one but perhaps none of their middle distance colts are much cop this season.
Hurricane Lane did his best but was short of pace most of the way, a respectable effort in third.
Bolshoi Ballet simply seemed to lack the petrol for this and perhaps the Derrinstown just wasn't very good. Southern Lights, who should have been second there was never a factor today. I would imagine Bolshoi Ballet drops back in trip now.
John Leeper looked to be coming with a run but he petered out very quickly.
Mac Swiney and Third Realm ran OK but on the book the latter should technically have won this. Was this another example of Varian having them cherry ripe for the trail and not for the big race itself?
Mark Johnston has yet another pathetic attempt to win a Classic.
Well done to Adam Kirby and nice to see the Ballydoyle stranglehold broken for once. A 107 rated horse has won the Derby and a 94 rated RPR has finished second. I dare say they will try to twist the figures to rate Adayar 120 after that but plenty didn't run their races today. I would imagine Ballydoyle somewhat regret only running one but perhaps none of their middle distance colts are much cop this season.
Answering my own question, the last winner from stall 1 was Oath in 1999.
16:00 Musselburgh - Chocoya
(Should do much better this time on fast ground, after getting stuck in the mud 28-days ago LTO at Nottingham. This extended 7f is almost certainly her maximum distance, so a chance has to be taken that she will see-out the trip. Cieren Fallon rides for top trainer Hugo Palmer. 13/2 generally available at time of writing. Modest wager for me, e/w I guess.)
Best of luck to everyone on Derby Day!
Ran as best as she could but in the end the dreaded 4th, lost third place by a neck, but that's racing. Winner a very smart filly, for sure. Ah well, onwards to the next one!
Digressing, very happy for Adam Kirby and the Godolphin/Charlie Appleby team winning the Derby (first and third for the yard!) with Adayar. Must leave the breeding accolades to Bustino!!
Well, George Boughey's "Good thing" Air To Air won readily but Surprise Picture managed 3rd place despite being unwanted by punters this morning. Happy enough with a place at those odds.