Daily Racing Thread Sunday 16th. May 2021

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The French Guineas' are unusual this season. More often than not the Newmarket winners head to Ireland for their next outing but unusually both Poetic Flare and Mother Earth have been aimed at Longchamp in their attempt to do the double.

I had played ante-post on a couple of French trained runners in the expectation that the Newmarket Guineas winners would be unlike to show but they are here and are both expected to win.

In an open year I thought Sweet Lady had a chance at 16/1 in the fillies race. I am not quite sure what the jockey was doing out the back in the trial and she never had a chance from where she was. She did close up but could only manage 4th in a messy looking race. The Racing Post preview commented that "She should have won her Group 3 last time", while they also noted that the softer the better for the Graffard filly.

Andre Fabre's Philomene is 2/2 but drops back in trip this time. I have seen it said that this will not matter to her but she has a bit to go to catch up with Mother Earth and it will not be easy going down in distance against a Guineas winner.

For me the race rests between these three fillies but WTF the Racing Post writer has been drinking I do not know. Their conclusion is that Mother Earth sets the clear standard but that Philomene will win it and Sweet Lady is the clear danger? Err, answers on a postcard to Confused.com.

Happy enough to have Sweet Lady at 16/1 but it would have been nice had she won last time and Mother Earth not turned up. Skybet are offering five places if you fancy a big priced runner.

Poetic Flare is solid as 7/4 Fav and although he scrambled home at Newmarket from Master Of The Seas, he did beat off St Mark's Basilica's old sparring partners from the Dewhurst with some authority, as Thunder Moon and Wembley flopped on the day. Bolger seems to think highly of the colt but I am not sure it was a 118 performance in a sub par looking Guineas and his worst run came on soft in the Dewhurst. St Mark's Basilica looks a but unesy in the betting for this Guineas but there are few strong contenders in the field.

I did Sealiway ante post at 8/1 in the hope that home turf might count and that he might be shorter after his trial run but he was beaten in the and is more or less the same price I took. The betting is tending to suggest that he might reverse form from the Fontainebleau with winner Policy Of Truth but I will be pleasantly surprised if he prevails.

Mehmento was second in the Greenham but that was a bit of a blanket finish with a neck and the same covering the 1-2-3. This is a longer trip as well.

No big confidence in Sealiway but at least he runs. I had a small bet on unbeaten Breizh Eagle at 20/1 each-way four places, He needs to step up a chunk but might just improve and nick a place at a price.


2.50 Longchamp Sealiway 8/1 (Ante-Post) and Breizh Eagle 20/1 EW 1-2-3-4

3.25 Longchamp Sweet Lady 16/1 (Ante-Post)

Just in case it's a favourites day I thought 15/8 Poetic Flare and 5/2 Mother Earth as a double paying a shade over 9/1 was all right for two proven Guineas winners.

2.50 Poetic Flare 15/8
3.25 Mother Earth 5/2
Win double

Good luck everyone.
 
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With the going at Longchamp described as “very soft”, the form book can probably be thrown out of the window for the Poulains and Pouliches this afternoon.

The one blot on the copybook of Poetic Flare was the Dewhurst, when he was well and truly out with the washing. Hindsight is a wonderful thing and that form does now look as bad as it did at the time. He (tenth, won Guineas), Chindit (ninth, won Greenham) and Tactical (eleventh, won Free Handicap) are the only horses that has run since and won.

As Kevin Manning has ventured to Paris, Poetic Flare will presumably be ridden as he was when successful, sitting near the pace. Dewhurst winner St Mark’s Basilica is a spare for Ioritz Mendizabal (Pierre-Charles Boudot suspended), so presumably he will have watched Frankie’s Newmarket ride and will be holding him up towards the rear to come with a run in the straight. In the absence of a huge raiding party, I expect the race to be the usual French married man’s gallop, so will the Bolger ace have already flown before the O’Brien contender gets on the scene? Clearly Archie Watson’s Greenham runner-up Mehmento is well regarded but the ground is an unknown and his two facile wins at Southwell tell us little.

With Miss Amulet out of the Pouliches, the raiding party is down to two and the obvious one is Guineas winner Mother Earth, if you are prepared to overlook her record on soft ground (thrashed in the Fillies’ Mile, three thirds and a win in a five runner Naas sprint). Ralph Beckett’s Lullaby Moon definitely will go on the ground having won the Redcar Two Year Old Trophy in the soft and the Prix Miesque at Chantilly on easy ground; and at the prices I would rather be on her to beat the home team. That said, I can see this staying in France but I would not be touching Philomene as connections are priced in.

My idea of a fair bet at Longchamp is in the Listed race (12:58), where the disappointing Tropbeau should be opposed, not with the other Fabre runner Queen Of Love but Mikel Delzangles SAGAMIYRA, owned by the Aga Khan and stepping up from handicapping to a listed race looking for a four-timer.
 
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Dynamo-99 said:
When was the last time either English winners went on to win the french versions
Click to expand...

Special Duty (2010) was the last filly to do the business in both races. Ravinella also did it the year after the amazing Miesque as Stick mentioned. Special Duty only won the Newmarket race after first past the post Jacqueline Quest was demoted to second after a Stewards Enquiry.

Going back 50 years I couldn't find a colt who has won both versions. I do reckon Frankel might have done it had he come over the channel though. <wizard>
 
Loads of views today

Ripon - Soft/Heavy ground

2.05 - Velocistar & Kidyounot

These two have both got form on soft/heavy ground, with the win of Kidyounot at Catterick being the standout bit of form. Velocistar is overpriced on the Redcar run in October and both have won races (which can't be said for many in here). Hopefully the higher draws are favoured but we won't know until this race has been run. Both win only bets (you know what will happen with Velocistar now)

3.35 - Waarif & Eagle Court

Waarif is so overpriced on his back catalogue, a repeat of his Ayr 2018 or York 2019 runs would make him very hard to beat on this ground. To me he has to be backed at big prices in what looks a moderate enough race.

Eagle Court has the winning form on the ground, stays further than this and should be able to stay on better than most of these. Again win only bets.

4.05 Zim Baby

This horse looks one to be with, drawn high, has ground form and I just think its the best horse for the conditions on the day.

Stratford - Soft

2:17 - Drakes Well

Price has now gone. I think that Ultimate Getaway needs better ground and this is according to the email I received from Foxtrot, the perfect race to warm up for the season and get a handicap mark. Drakes Well will like the ground and is the horse who should take this.

4:17 - The Wicket Chicken & My Lady Grey

I just can't have Un De La Seniere on the ground, this is very much the end of season run for her. Her sire is 8 from 101 on soft/heavy and this trip will surely test stamina too. The other two I think are likely to appreciate the ground more and therefore are bets against the odds on jolly.

4:47 - Embole

Got the ground form in the book and looks fairly handicapped for chasing again. Not sure same can be said for many of the other ones.
 
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Longchamp
15,25 Silvestri 16/1 e/w five places with Sky, others four.

Wexford
15,25 That's Lifebuoy 4/1
16,25 Champagne Beauty 20/1 e/w bet365 three places, others 10/1 four places.

Stratford
14,47 Nefyn Point 4/1
17,17 Blue Collar Glory 5/2
 
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QuarterMoonII said:
With the going at Longchamp described as “very soft”, the form book can probably be thrown out of the window for the Poulains and Pouliches this afternoon.

The one blot on the copybook of Poetic Flare was the Dewhurst, when he was well and truly out with the washing. Hindsight is a wonderful thing and that form does now look as bad as it did at the time. He (tenth, won Guineas), Chindit (ninth, won Greenham) and Tactical (eleventh, won Free Handicap) are the only horses that has run since and won.

As Kevin Manning has ventured to Paris, Poetic Flare will presumably be ridden as he was when successful, sitting near the pace. Dewhurst winner St Mark’s Basilica is a spare for Ioritz Mendizabal (Pierre-Charles Boudot suspended), so presumably he will have watched Frankie’s Newmarket ride and will be holding him up towards the rear to come with a run in the straight. In the absence of a huge raiding party, I expect the race to be the usual French married man’s gallop, so will the Bolger ace have already flown before the O’Brien contender gets on the scene? Clearly Archie Watson’s Greenham runner-up Mehmento is well regarded but the ground is an unknown and his two facile wins at Southwell tell us little.

With Miss Amulet out of the Pouliches, the raiding party is down to two and the obvious one is Guineas winner Mother Earth, if you are prepared to overlook her record on soft ground (thrashed in the Fillies’ Mile, three thirds and a win in a five runner Naas sprint). Ralph Beckett’s Lullaby Moon definitely will go on the ground having won the Redcar Two Year Old Trophy in the soft and the Prix Miesque at Chantilly on easy ground; and at the prices I would rather be on her to beat the home team. That said, I can see this staying in France but I would not be touching Philomene as connections are priced in.

My idea of a fair bet at Longchamp is in the Listed race (12:58), where the disappointing Tropbeau should be opposed, not with the other Fabre runner Queen Of Love but Mikel Delzangles SAGAMIYRA, owned by the Aga Khan and stepping up from handicapping to a listed race looking for a four-timer.
Click to expand...

Shout
 
NassauBoard said:
Loads of views today

Ripon - Soft/Heavy ground

2.05 - Velocistar & Kidyounot

These two have both got form on soft/heavy ground, with the win of Kidyounot at Catterick being the standout bit of form. Velocistar is overpriced on the Redcar run in October and both have won races (which can't be said for many in here). Hopefully the higher draws are favoured but we won't know until this race has been run. Both win only bets (you know what will happen with Velocistar now)

3.35 - Waarif & Eagle Court

Waarif is so overpriced on his back catalogue, a repeat of his Ayr 2018 or York 2019 runs would make him very hard to beat on this ground. To me he has to be backed at big prices in what looks a moderate enough race.

Eagle Court has the winning form on the ground, stays further than this and should be able to stay on better than most of these. Again win only bets.

4.05 Zim Baby

This horse looks one to be with, drawn high, has ground form and I just think its the best horse for the conditions on the day.

Stratford - Soft

2:17 - Drakes Well

Price has now gone. I think that Ultimate Getaway needs better ground and this is according to the email I received from Foxtrot, the perfect race to warm up for the season and get a handicap mark. Drakes Well will like the ground and is the horse who should take this.

4:17 - The Wicket Chicken & My Lady Grey

I just can't have Un De La Seniere on the ground, this is very much the end of season run for her. Her sire is 8 from 101 on soft/heavy and this trip will surely test stamina too. The other two I think are likely to appreciate the ground more and therefore are bets against the odds on jolly.

4:47 - Embole

Got the ground form in the book and looks fairly handicapped for chasing again. Not sure same can be said for many of the other ones.
Click to expand...


18/1 winner and a 4/7 loser <laugh> so far
 
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Impressive from St Mark's Basilica first time up. He looks like the best miler of his generation based on that. Poetic Flare was always struggling really.

Sealiway made an effort but faded. He's a small colt who didn't seem to stay.

Delighted with Breizh Eagle. He seemed way too far back but made up some headway for 3rd and place money at 20/1 for me. I thought he should have been second and he was the only one who might have given the winner a race had he not been so far off them.

St Mark's Basilica took a bit of time to warm up but like so many of Aidan's he keeps finding at the business end of the race. Still can't believe that I backed him on debut only for him to finish second, yet here he is as Champion 2YO and now French Guineas winner.

There are reports that the ground is very soft but the commentator mentioned it was good to soft and the times suggest that is the case.

So much for Aidan's awful start to the season.
 
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Bit of a shocker as Couersamba lands the French Guineas from Mother Earth. The O'Brien filly looked to be coming to win it but Rouget's filly finished with a burst to deny her. Sweet Lady was in with a shout but could not quicken and it was a bit messy in behind the front two with some of them coming too late. Kennella at 66/1 in third perhaps casts doubt on the form somewhat.

The eyecatcher for me was Philomene. This was blatantly too short for her and she was doing all her best work late, looking like she is screaming out for the Diane trip.

I think Philomene will reverse form with the winner over the 10F trip and feel she is the filly to beat. This was a good effort over a trip clearly short of what she needs.

Prix Diane Philomene 9/2
 
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St Mark's Basilica is 9/4 Fav for the French Derby now. I would imagine he has the mile division at his mercy after today and no real need to stretch his stamina but I suppose a Derby of any sort is tempting.
 
NassauBoard said:
Loads of views today

Ripon - Soft/Heavy ground

2.05 - Velocistar & Kidyounot

These two have both got form on soft/heavy ground, with the win of Kidyounot at Catterick being the standout bit of form. Velocistar is overpriced on the Redcar run in October and both have won races (which can't be said for many in here). Hopefully the higher draws are favoured but we won't know until this race has been run. Both win only bets (you know what will happen with Velocistar now)

3.35 - Waarif & Eagle Court

Waarif is so overpriced on his back catalogue, a repeat of his Ayr 2018 or York 2019 runs would make him very hard to beat on this ground. To me he has to be backed at big prices in what looks a moderate enough race.

Eagle Court has the winning form on the ground, stays further than this and should be able to stay on better than most of these. Again win only bets.

4.05 Zim Baby

This horse looks one to be with, drawn high, has ground form and I just think its the best horse for the conditions on the day.

Stratford - Soft

2:17 - Drakes Well

Price has now gone. I think that Ultimate Getaway needs better ground and this is according to the email I received from Foxtrot, the perfect race to warm up for the season and get a handicap mark. Drakes Well will like the ground and is the horse who should take this.

4:17 - The Wicket Chicken & My Lady Grey

I just can't have Un De La Seniere on the ground, this is very much the end of season run for her. Her sire is 8 from 101 on soft/heavy and this trip will surely test stamina too. The other two I think are likely to appreciate the ground more and therefore are bets against the odds on jolly.

4:47 - Embole

Got the ground form in the book and looks fairly handicapped for chasing again. Not sure same can be said for many of the other ones.
Click to expand...


Winners at 18/1 and 4/1 make it a nice Sunday, just a shame Zim Baby probably got done as a 1.01 shot (how did it lose?) but glad a bit of study paid off.
 
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Looking back at the French Guineas's the Fillies race was almost a second faster than the Colts. Sweet Lady turned the form round from her trial by about 10 lengths with the runners who finished ahead of her there and that seems to confirm what I thought, and that was that Soumillon gave her a terrible ride last time and did the short priced punters out of their dough. She was only good enough for 4th today though.

It might have been interesting to see how Breizh Eagle might have gone had he had a stronger pace to aim at. It is always a case of what if? when you read the post race analysis that says "Towards rear, shaken up 2f out, no initial impression, stayed on strongly on outer final furlong, closest finish"

Breizh Eagle is not entered in the French Derby but this was another step forward for him today and he seems to be crying out for further. Sire Bow Creek was runner up in the Dee Stakes and this colt is by far his best progeny so far. There is stamina on the dam's side and this colt is now also her best foal. With St Mark's Basilica now favourite for the race there is no way the horse who should probably have been second today is a forlorn hope for the French Derby. If I had the cash some of these owners have I would enter him.
 
Grendel said:
Special Duty (2010) was the last filly to do the business in both races. Ravinella also did it the year after the amazing Miesque as Stick mentioned. Special Duty only won the Newmarket race after first past the post Jacqueline Quest was demoted to second after a Stewards Enquiry.

Going back 50 years I couldn't find a colt who has won both versions. I do reckon Frankel might have done it had he come over the channel though. <wizard>
Click to expand...
She also won the French version after the first past the post was demoted
 
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