Daily Racing Thread Wednesday 28th. April 2021

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OddDog said:
I wonder what price Galopin des Champs for next year's Stayers Hurdle? Hosed up there and still plenty more to come one would think.

Might well go chasing though
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I hope so.

From Cheltenham 2022 - Ante-Post Bets

Pilgrim said:
At this stage it seems crazy to start placing bets for next year's Festival, and that's probably true, but this year there may be no choice.

I have never, or rather hardly ever, placed bets at this time of year for the following year. Only with one of my favourite horses, Penhill, did I do so (and quite luckily) immediately after his 2017 victory in the Albert Bartlett, betting him for the Stayers Hurdle which he won in 2018. This year I made a symbolic bet before the start of the Festival for the 2022 with Royal Pagaille, a bet that was lost in both senses, in the monetary sense of course and in the tangible sense because it was on paper and I don't know where I have it. Apart from these two bets, nothing. It is in August that I start to take a closer look at the market.

But I was saying that this year is different because, I don't know if it's because of the amount of favourites that won (without counting EA, of course), or because of the amount of profit that this meant in accumulators and early bets, a quick look today shows that at the moment the early bets are really rubbish. And I fear that after Punchestown it could get worse if the winners at Cheltenham confirm their superiority. Therefore, and despite the fact that everything that follows is surely doomed to failure, let's give it a go.

Ballymore

A lottery because we already know that most of those who can run here can also run in the Supreme and even the Albert Bartlett.
Journey With Me won the same race at Gowran on March 12 that Bob Olinger won last year. He has done it practically walked and made an excellent impression. Same trainer and same colours so what can go wrong?

Journey With Me 16/1 e/w.

Mares' Hurdle

You have to take a leap of faith here because betting on a horse (in this case a mare) coming back from injury is very risky because the vast majority of the time they don't come back like they did before. If (and it's a very big IF) Shewearsitwell can reach her pre-injury level I think she has a good chance to shine. Three races won with overwhelming superiority, the last by eight lengths in October last year, a Grade 3 at Tipperary. WM has always said she is a fantastic mare. Let's hope she can prove it at the Festival.

Shewearsitwell 16/1 e/w Lads and Coral, others 14/1.

Novices' Chase (RSA)

Galopin Des Champs is clearly not the obvious choice here as it seems his place would be the Marsh where he is currently fourth favourite. He won the Martin Pipe at the Festival with authority and did so up in trip, I think he will go up again and then this would be his target if the horse proves in the prep races that he is worthy of it.

Galopin Des Champs 25/1 e/w

Champion Bumper

Classic Getaway equalled last December's record sale of a PTP horse held by Jonbon for a month, £570,000 was paid for him (crazy in my eyes, but...).CG easily won his PTP and was bought by CPS who have won the last three years this race with Sir Gerhard, Ferny Hollow and Envoy Allen. Lots of horses and very good ones will turn up, but if they don't send him to run over hurdles maybe he'll do well. He is the current favourite (which at this stage means absolutely nothing) and is right at my limit for an early bet, 12/1.

Classic Getaway 12/1 e/w bet365, Lads and Coral.
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Fair play to Paul Nicholls for taking CDO over for that, great effort by the winner and I think the application of the headgear has really done the trick with him.
 
The Munir horse O'Toole is worth an e/w tickle here at around 22/1 - could be literally anything and the Crawfords know their business with the bumper horses
 
something going on? Did Crossed My Mind 5 minutes ago at 16-1 .. it is now 9-1 lol

Also Snugsborough Hall - both doubled with Glan in the last :)
 
GillLebowski said:
Work has been crazy and barely had any time to even look at results, never mind try and pick anything and get a bet on. Raging now that I look back over the last week, some serious shouts guys, well done! :emoticon-0178-rock:

3:40 - Isotope got cut off on the inside by the eventual winner which looked to take a good bit of momentum out of it about 2/3's of the way through the race which probably cost it a place. Jockey didn't look too happy and looked like he said something to the winning jockey after the race.

4:15 - I had wanted to back Junior Rattler but a non-runner now so I'll leave this but Calthor and the favourite Heather Rocco are interesting...
Very interesting in that they were absolute muck :emoticon-0102-bigsm


4:50 - I was right to back against Blue Sari and Decimation. I don't think I even looked at the actual winner but Brassil's outsider in 2nd so all good.

5:20 - Great win by Galopin Des Champs

5:55 - Going to say Clan Des Obeaux wins here. He seems to not like Cheltenham at all and it showed they made the right decision not to run him there when, with new cheekpieces applied, he seemed back to his best and made a joke of the race. Cheekpieces stay on and I can see him going out and making all. I don't mind if Fakir wins either but please don't let either of the top Mullins' pair win it...
Woooo... Lovely to see STD get a big winner, big fan of his. And fair play to Nicholls for coming over and robbing the Irish Gold Cup. Clan really stuck it to them, and they all dropped off one by one.

6:30 - Sir Gerhard. Already beaten Kilcruit, Patrick switches to him to win again today. Outside of these 2 it's a really interesting race, I can see the battle for 3rd and maybe better being as interesting as the front two in the market...
Oof, how wrong was I? As well as Patrick! Was disappointed by the Fahey's horse that tore off in front although it set the race up perfect for Kilcruit. O'toole could be a decent horse and I'd still have hope for Eric Bloodaxe after that race too. Ramillies really hasn't shown anything close to what they thought of it early doors.

7:00 - TL;DR - Black Op wins, Midnight Maestro should place, Snugsborough might get a place, Snow Falcon and Or Jaune De Somoza at large odds...
Black Op a faller while it looked like he was travelling well... Midnight Maestro ran on for a place. Annamix ran better than I expected and Snow Falcon worse.. Snugsborough Hall absolutely screwed by that debacle of a start.

7:35 - Going to stick with the two things I'm an absolute sucker for that keep letting me down... Martin Brassil and Flat bread bumper horses :emoticon-0102-bigsm Choice Of Words and Dreamz...
Brassil gets another 2nd...
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And don't even get me started on those favourites at Ascot :emoticon-0146-punch

I have Kilcruit backed for the Albert Bartlett next year for some reason :emoticon-0102-bigsm Sir Gerhard for the Ballymore, and Jonbon for the Supreme :emoticon-0103-cool:
 
Not too bad a day in the end for me. This was the highlight for me. I only actually sent about £8 in total today.
In a way I'm pleased my losing selection came 5th and not 2nd. I don't think I could have coped if it had come 2nd <laugh>

Apologies for the photo, but I have forgotten how to do a screenshot, so I had to take a normal photo.


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Grendel said:
Supremacy was dire today. There could be a chance he hasn't trained on. His sire Mehmas never raced at 3YO.

I have been thinking that stablemate Diligent Harry might make the better sprinter this season. Funnily enough, today's winner Rohaan is the only horse to have finished ahead of Diligent Harry, when he beat him a short head at Lingfield last month, with the Cox horse only just failing to get up.

Diligent Harry ran from a mark of 90 when beaten by Rohaan but is now rated 105. I suppose that could have been a pointer to Rohaan today, however he ran an odd race next time, when only 5th in a Handicap off 95 and seeming to have been left a lot to do, closing late to be nearest at the finish. Winning a Group 3 today will have put a firm kick into Rohaan's handicap mark. The Gelding has had 9 races since 1st December, when he was rated 55 and it is some improvement to have landed a Group 3 in just under five months.

Nice to see a horse thriving on racing and making progress.
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Mehmas didn't run as a 3yo because he went to stud, not because he didn't train on. Also he has 17 wins this year only 2 of which are by 2yos. If you look at the second crop sires he lies second to Twilight Son but has the same number of wins.
A more likely excuse is that Cox hadn't got him fine tuned or that he didn't like the going. Agree it was a dire performance.
 
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