The government informed the WHO in September as confirmed today by WHO however you are correct as the spokesperson said they are dealing with many different strains. On Monday 2 health bodies confirmed alarming rises of cases in the south east. You are also correct as confirmed by Dr Hopkins that the final data was presented on Friday which knocked Boris. I bet he wish he hadnt goaded Starmer on Wednesday?
So all the medics etc are wrong about this latest variant spreading 70% faster? All the concerns about health services across the world being overwhelmed because of the speed of infection with this new variant are unfounded?
Scientifically, I really do not think they can tell Col. The virus is spreading quicker than they thought it would, when they allowed us out of lockdown...yes that is right. But unless they sequence" the genome" of a large number of the virus taken from people newly infected, they cannot really tell...and they are not screening large numbers they are just taking samples. (Thank you Col you have made me go and read up about this) So the genome is 30,000 base pairs long. The virus called"new" has 23 changes (23/30,000) so these changes are difficult to identify (and impossible by the testing regiime we are using) and very difficult to analyse outside the lab...So the full information on how far it has spread is still not known There are two varients of this "new" virus...one with a double deletion (no I cannot see how this will be dangerous....as it changes the readout; the sequence is read out in 3s) and a second single mutation called N501Y, which has shown a small increase binding ability to ACE protein in our body, this might increas infection rate...if nothing else is involved. They are much more worried about the increase in infection rate of any virus strain. It doesnot matter what strain you get, if susceptible you could get very ill and die. Here is a useful link. To what some of the most outstanding virologists in the country are saying https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-the-new-variant-of-sars-cov-2/ They are worried, but not directly about the new version...So I will again say as I did before;-The new strain arguement was a handle into explaining why we had to go into lockdown yesterday. It was another scare tactic, to scare us into obeying this time. And Col....that is not an overt criticism...we need something to scare us into obeying... The combination of slow action and ineptitude by the government and "tiredness" in the lockdown process and restlessness by the public have caused this. We are still all in this together....and somne are more in it than others
But are you dismissing the fears about 70% faster spread or not? Sorry to ask again, but I can't tell from your reply (probably me not getting it admittedly). Other countries are all reacting the same way, so are they all just using the new variant as an excuse too?
From BBC website... "There are two notable sets of mutation - and I apologise for their hideous names. Both are found in the crucial spike protein, which is the key the virus uses to unlock the doorway into our body's cells in order to hijack them. The mutation N501 (I did warn you) alters the most important part of the spike, known as the "receptor-binding domain". This is where the spike makes first contact with the surface of our body's cells. Any changes that make it easier for the virus to get inside are likely to give it an edge. "It looks and smells like an important adaptation," said Prof Loman. The other mutation - a H69/V70 deletion - has emerged several times before, including famously in infected mink. The concern was that antibodies from the blood of survivors was less effective at attacking that variant of virus. Again, it is going to take more laboratory studies to really understand what is going on. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55312505
I’m not going to judge people, many of whom will be living in small flats, often with random people they don’t really know, for not cancelling plans to go home for a Christmas they were repeatedly assured was fine to go home for. Not in the same league as swarms of people descending on shopping centres, IMO.
Is the issue though that most people shop relatively locally whereas travel at Xmas tends to scatter people far and wide, frequently into areas that have relatively low infection rates? I think a lot of people are being very selfish Surely the Opposition should be calling this out given that they have been so keen on lock downs?
That's got to be a fake picture - not a mask in sight and I'm sure with all those people gathered there'd be a fair few wearing them.....unless London is truly filled with morons?
Doubt many people are schlepping into London for shopping at the moment. It’ll be northerners living down here heading home.
That's exactly my point - so the risk is that rates start rising again in those areas that had seen falling rates, leading to further restrictions in those areas So how do all the Northern mayors who were complaining about the lack of restrictions in the south feel now? I genuinely don't get it
Start with the less important one first the deletion mutation..It has appear several times before. The reason why all the mink in Scandanavia were slaughtered. No one knows if it can make the jump from mink to humans well (I think there are a handful of people, mainly mink farm workers who have), what will happen when it gets there...probably the same as the Standard virus, but if a second mutation happens or a third...who knows...So get rid of it...and we can kill all the mink...we can't kill people from Kent! Re the N501Y mutation this changes changes one amino acid ( from a straight chain asparagine (N) to a ring structure tyrosine (Y) at position 501 (in the spike protein), so it is a change in the protein structure). This " in the lab" increases the binding of the virus to the ACE protein in your lungs by 70%. It does not increase your chance of infection per se. If you get sneezed upon by the a person with the virus.. you are probably going to get infected, but this mutation makes the virus hang on a bit tighter. So there will be a few people who get a viral sneeze and the virus will be "shrugged off". (?young people with good immune systems??), who this mutation will make it harder to shrug off...but they may still do it.. Others may not. But there is not going to be an increase of 70% of people overnight getting it But the point I am making If you are not in a position to get a sneeze from a virus laden person...you won't get infected, regardless if it is new, old or called Fred. If you mass around and get close to lots of people you will get infected iif one of them has the virus (whether it is new, old or fred
I was sceptical at first and like Watford said about judging people but then I saw the interview of some of those travellers that were just getting out of London because of the restrictions.
The issue with all these exercises (and I've been through a fair few disaster recovery roleplays at work) is that they are just that - everyone knows they aren't real and decisions aren't life or death Plus of course, throw in the public, many of whom are selfish and couldn't care less about others
True, but then again there was an 'audit' of the NHS in the scenario of a pandemic which highlighted the vulnerability regarding PPE, beds and other supplies, it was ignored...
So you can't catch the virus from surfaces anymore? All the cleaning of surfaces etc has been futile?
I doubt that it was ignored....more that the inevitably massive cost was set against what would've been seen as a remote possibility Easy to retrospectively say this was the wrong decision
