Excess deaths are only a prediction in a particular week or period.....Can change anytime!! And that's with Covid and not From
Based on a five year moving average. It's about as reliable as it gets. I can't tell if this is a wind up or not. If not, you've just demonstrated that you still don't know how it's worked out. Covid is irrelevant to how excess deaths are worked out. It doesn't even play a part.
It's funny that they don't mention if they have symptoms of flu at time of death!! ......but not worried about that bit, if in doubt add Covid to the list!!
Your quote "As it stands, excess deaths suggests around 18k more have died from Covid in the UK than officially recorded" not mine. Suggests are not facts.. You keep saying FROM Covid, but you should say OF
But at the end of the year we could be lower than previous years.....we need to wait for the facts... I hope they count the excess deaths and make it a HEADLINE in following years due to the measures put in for Covid...........Of course they won't!!
Haha okay. And yet when it comes to Covid as a whole you're willing to believe it's not real on the basis that it 'feels dodgy'. Facts suddenly don't matter then eh? If it's good enough for statisticians and scientists, I'll choose to believe them over you and your 0 evidence . The trend suggests it will only get higher towards the end of the year. In fact since you first disputed the numbers and said that they might start falling towards the end of the year in this very thread, they've already risen by not far off 10,000. With more and more hospitalisations, the numbers are only going to go one way and that is up. If you really believe that excess deaths are not abnormally high, then how do you explain the hospitals being so full? In the nicest way possible onefor, cut your losses. You clearly don't understand stats in this context, nor how excess deaths work. Every post where you clearly get it wrong makes you look more and more daft on the subject. I like you as a poster but this has clearly gone so far over your head and yet you just won't stop trying to dispute it, despite clearly not understanding it.
I've never said it's not real, just wanting perspective and honest facts. So nice try!! Yep, You've already said you believe what ever is fed to you!! But I'd rather do my own research than be fed a bunch of media scaremongering!! You've made your choice!! As to excess deaths...Nice try again but I know how it works thank you and I've explained it on numinous occasions.. Last time just for you.. It's a prediction with millions of different factors, from a given period of days in a year which changes week by week....The excess is the deaths over their prediction of that given period. One week (week 30) they could predict 5000 deaths but in fact there are 5500 deaths...excess of 500....but could be 4500 so that 500 less.. It will take about 3 years for it to be fully known if the excess numbers of any given year are more than previous and why they think that..Again, millions of factors why that might be.. Patronising people IMO is a sign of weakness (I've noticed it a few times and not only with me)..Having a discussion or debate is healthy but when it gets personal you show your lack of credibility for any discussion.. So keep it friendly!!
No, this is still not true. It's based over the preceding 5-year moving average. Not a "prediction". This is not true either. That's why they use the 5-year moving average. I've no idea where you got 3 years from. This quote in particular instantly shows you don't understand it correctly mate. This shows a complete fundamental misunderstanding of how the data is collected. Sorry if it's patronising onefor but it's hard not to here. I've been rinsed a million times on here, and backed down when I'm wrong. What I don't understand could fill every library under the sun but I'm pretty sure I do understand this. But anyway, to answer angelic, excess deaths is our best measure. It's not perfect and it doesn't give a complete explanation of Covid. You would expect excess deaths to consistently go up every year that much is true. But this has gone up at a record rate, by far the highest in the past 50 years or so.
what area was that, not local? this is a minefield of mis information. Most on here have some inkling of different factors used [ a few stick rigidly to what they believe is correct and cant or wont budge their opinion ] When you look back at all the different ways it has been presented since March you can understand why it is confusing and definetly incorrect totals. There is 3 different approach's on here and in their own bubbles are perfectly acceptable. You cannot change a death certificate unless done via a court action! SO doctor A in the beginning has a patient die, he was coughing difficulty breathing and no test available, caught up in horror of Covid and no suspicious circumstances = likely cause of death Covid! a couple months later it comes to pass a realization .. hang on been treating this patient for respiratory problems for past 2 + years and died in his sleep ... likely DBNC ... BUT could have had covid!... more than halfway till now got tests... so began recording another way ... superceded by within last 28 days IMHO= flawed approach Not many people have NOT come up against it my mother in 2012 after a slow onset for 10 years ...last 4 months was like dropping off a cliff and bouncing to the bottom ...............
Can't be bothered to go all over that again and will wait to see what the excess deaths are for the whole year.... According to Euromono currently we have moderate excess deaths.. There is mention that there will be excess deaths not only due to the deaths from Covid but also because of people unable to get treatment for other illnesses because of the restrictions because of Covid..
Onefor - sorry for getting away from the "excess deaths" issue you're discussing at length with Rob just for a minute. Back to something you alluded to earlier in the thread about pharma companies making billions - it's just something I find very interesting. Major Pharma company values don't move sharply with this sort of vaccine news - Pfizer has barely moved this past 12 months despite the announcements - in fact it's lower now than the start of this year. Moderna and BioNTech are very much smaller companies and would tend to benefit proportionately more, but their vaccine news hasn't set them alight. In fact BioNTech are back down to their pre-announcment levels of a fortnight back. In general, larger pharma companies are seen very much like utility companies and are regarded as defensive stocks. More of a steady hedge against bad news rather than reactionary money earners on good news. Nothing more certain than people will always need a pill or two during their lives and will always need water and sewerage services. They're also held as dividend bearing stocks by those who like bi-annual cash returns rather than take income through growth - trouble is lots of divis have been suspended recently. For gains (very mercenary I know) then you need to look at companies (sectors) that have suffered as a result of recent events and will benefit from the vaccine news to a far greater extent that the actual makers of it. Travel, hospitality and construction in particular have/will benefit. IAG, RR Holdings, Whitbread, Taylor Wimpey etc in the UK have all returned from the depths of the past 6 months and the same applies internationally. Where it goes from here is anyone's guess, but those stocks that have gained this past fortnight will likely improve again - long way to go yet but it's worth considering if you have some resourses available.
I will take that on board OS... Will be interesting once these vaccines actually become available for the larger population to see if that changes.. But I take your point and will be monitoring closely as it all unfolds!! Crystal ball is required for these other companies mentioned, again will be keeping a close eye!!
fingers in the pie syndrome ... in a round a bout way answers the question "why now so quickly" answer is money been thrown at it ... so profit will only replace spending & of course will manufacturers jump on profit band wagon? 8 billion doses needed world wide ... and maybe a dozen companies will all be at the cheese!
My concern with the vaccine is, with people on a cocktail of tablets daily how can it be passed as safe? I’ve been on lansoprazole (recently moved to panzoprazol) and likes since early 2000’s and will no doubt be until I depart. It was deemed safe at the time. Now according to reports it increases the chances of me getting fractures, (being coeliac which raises my chances of osteoporosis, makes that higher) pneumonia, Clostridium difficile diarrhea, hypomagnesemia, vitamin B12deficiency, chronic kidney disease, and dementia. So even though I will no doubt take the vaccine, this rushing through could potentially be more damaging for some in years to come.
have heard about your hospital test?? My wife started life with 50% of her first 12 years in hospital had 38 operations! Had about 10 since .. is currently on tablets for her 2 ailments on top of everything else found out today a certain additive to Almond milk is dangerous to her [ has to have that cant have milk ] luckily the brand she has is free from it! She has recently lost 27kg because of her throat thing [ diet ] .. she is aware of dangers of vaccine but fears her 2 ailments brain and throat might kill her off should she contract covid! ...she jokes.. now theres 3 things trying to finish me off! makes her blood boil when the twats march or do not SD ....
It has a fair way to go before they inject anything in me if ever (never had a flu jab and don't intend to) that's for sure (unless it's required for travel) and I sympathise your concerns. No way are they at a stage where they can guarantee minimal side affects especially while people like yourself are dependant on other medication..... We we will be made to believe, that it is perfectly safe and worthy of the gamble not to contract Covid.......For me, thanks but no thanks, I'll take my chances!!
Confirmed Coeliac, was diagnosed years ago but did not adhere to diet and only stayed away from things that I knew made me feel like ****e. Things like pasty’s, and some biscuits. Shortbread (which I love) and certain breads. I then had a hiatus hernia repair operation in 2007 the test when they checked my hernia pre op was saying I’m not active for coeliac. So carried on just avoiding things that hurt etc. Anyway the hernia op was not a success and had to be reversed a few years later. Since the first op I have had trouble swallowing and was getting food or certain drinks stuck in my throat and having the be sick to remove it. Was more frequent but now about once maybe twice a month, but when it happens it last a day or two. My younger brother loves it as he waits till I only eat half my food and he finishes it off. So anyway the test done to confirm coeliac also confirmed that I have low motility in my throat and stomach muscles and the digesting system is out of sync. So will have to go onto medication for this. Having more test test like bloods, barium meal and bone density test to see how much damage the coeliac has caused me over the years. It was my own fault as my older brother is coeliac, and keeps to his diet should of been another warning. To become coeliac is in a gene mixed by certain people so past from your parents even though neither of them have it. So high possibility our younger brother has it as well.
I'll be completely honest, as much as I did disagree with you on the other stuff, and still do, I did a bit more research into the vaccines and I didn't realise they had been tested on such small numbers of people. As in I was expecting thousands and in the end it ended up being tested on around 100 Covid patients in some cases. I have complete confidence in our health professionals to give out a safe vaccine, particularly the Oxford one, but if it's optional then I don't see any harm in waiting a few months, assuming it won't impact your life. By that point you'd like to think some of the more obvious downsides would have come out and you can make a more educated decision.
