Daily Racing Thread Sunday 13th. September 2020

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I have to take a stand against Master Of The Seas and Battleground tomorrow, their form looks very iffy to me and I dont think they are much better than 110 horses at this stage. Lucky Vega sets the standard with his win in the Pheonix and he should be fine at 7f, they didnt get to the bottom of him there and I expect him to be very strong in the extra furlong. The other two could improve but I just dont think they have the speed to go with Lucky Vega and ill be surprised if he doesnt start clear fav.

National Stakes - Lucky Vega 3/1
 
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LONGCHAMP

The Grand Prix de Paris is normally run on Bastille Day but this year finds itself as a Group 1 Arc Trial alongside the Prix Vermeille. Looking at the fields, these are Group 1s in name only.

The favourite could be local hope Port Guillaume but it is very hard to see just why. Jean Claude Rouget’s colt was fifth in the Prix Du Jockey Club and then won the Prix Hocquart well last time but beat absolutely nothing. The Derby winner Serpentine gets first-time blinkers and the services of Christophe Soumillon today but is he going to try and make all? The Derby form now looks dreadful and his Arc chances may have evaporated by three o’clock or he may be Arc favourite if he runs away with it. Derby disappointment English King has done nothing to suggest that he is the horse that was so impressive in the Lingfield Derby Trial for Tom Marquand. The early season Ballydoyle hype horse Mogul won the Gordon Stakes last time with Highland Chief and English King behind but Subjectivist did nothing for that form in the St Leger. At the available prices, I cannot find reason to back any of them.

My Prix de Diane horse Raabihah let me down that day but is now favourite for the Prix Vermeille and a decent victory would make her the best chance of a successful home defence on Arc Sunday. If the Aga Khan is going to have an Arc runner this year, Dermot Weld’s Tarnawa is going to have to massively improve her form or Alain de Royer Dupre’s Valia is going to have to really step up on her second in the Prix Minerve (Laburnum behind and Wonderful Tonight the shock winner). If the favourite does not win, the Irish Oaks winner Even So looks the best chance for the Classic generation as I do not see Wonderful Tonight proving her win was not a fluke; however, I am looking to the older filly, DAME MALLIOT, winner of the Princess of Wales’s Stakes under Hollie Doyle, to follow up for Frankie at the top table. I presume that Ed Vaughan has given him licence to make use of her if this turns into a crawl.

There is the usual small field for the Prix Foy but champion stayer Stradivarius really needs to win this convincingly to prove that he can cut it over twelve furlongs at the top level, having been well beaten in the Coronation Cup by Ghaiyyath and Anthony Van Dyck. Last year’s Derby winner is in the six today but has not won since Epsom and was a lacklustre fifth in the Hardwicke Stakes when last seen. Best of the home team is clearly Way To Paris but he has picked up the Grand Prix de Chantilly (6 ran) and the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud (5 ran) either side of losing to Sottsass in a photo for the Prix Ganay (5 ran).

There must be a chance that if Earthlight wins the Prix Du Pin easily he will book his place for the Prix de la Forêt back here in three weeks. Of course it could be another blanket finish like the Prix Maurice de Gheest, but eighth Wichita has franked that form.
 
THE CURRAGH

With Battaash standing in his box, the supporting cast get a chance to win a decent pot in the Flying Five, possibly on their way to challenge him in the Prix de l’Abbaye. For me this boils down to two horses that have chased Battaash home. Glass Slippers was six length behind him at Ascot and reduced that by nearly four lengths at Goodwood; plus she won the Abbaye last year when he had one of his days. Michael Dods’ QUE AMORO was the champion sprinter’s closest pursuer beaten only a length in the Nunthorpe, and the trainer’s recent record with this type of improver makes her one to follow. Equilateral has failed to live up to the promise of his King’s Stand second and A’ali was behind QUE AMORO in the Nunthorpe after winning a Group 2 here. Liberty Beach has it all to do having been behind Glass Slippers and A’Ali on his last two starts. Listed winner Make A Challenge chased home A’ali in the Sapphire.

The Blandford Stakes should be very interesting from the point of view of assessing Love’s Yorkshire Oaks form as the seven lengths third that day One Voice, also runner-up in the Nassau, takes on reliable yardstick Magic Wand. I would rather be with beaten Irish Oaks favourite Cayenne Pepper but she has seconditis. It looks fair to say that the Moyglare Stud Stakes will be staying in the O’Brien family but it does appear to be a re-run of the Debutante on better ground and none of these has the profile of last year’s winner.

The National Stakes looks like the best juvenile race of the season so far with a couple of proven performers and a couple of potential performers. Thunder Moon easily won his debut over course and distance and takes a big step up in class, whilst Charterhouse won his maiden after a close fourth in a Group 3 (Military Style won, favourite Masen third, Mac Swiney behind). Lucky Vega chased home shock winner Laws Of Indices in the Railway Stakes before reversing that form winning the Phoenix Stakes (favourite St Mark’s Basilica behind) and looks sure to be effective over the extra furlong. Found’s son Battleground has done better than I expected him to do as a juvenile as I see him as a middle distance prospect but he deserves his place in the line up after winning the Chesham and the Vintage Stakes; however, I expect MASTER OF THE SEAS to retain his unbeaten record this afternoon as he has looked the real deal in his races to date and the form line with Devious Company (three lengths runner-up in the Superlative compared to two lengths runner-up in the Vintage) gives him the edge over Ryan Moore’s mount.

The Irish St Leger may give us some idea of how good a horse Enable beat in the King George farce as last year’s Irish Derby winner Sovereign takes on the Ebor winner Fujaira Prince.
 
Search For A Song @ 5/1 in the Irish St. Leger today, won the race well from Kew Gardens last year and this has likely been the main target again for this season.

Treacherous @ 8/1 in the card opener. Big field sprint handicap, where else would you look to try win a few euro! His recent win at Goodwood really surprised me as I didn't think he would back up that Haydock win and he's not too badly treated comparing AW form now that he is winning on turf. Hard to ignore in current form and I'm assuming the stable are expecting a close run in sending him over here.

Best of luck anyone having a go.
 
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Bath 2:15 Up The Aisle

Improving sort during this summer who was a good 4th at this track 2 runs ago. 2nd last time at Lingfield when fancied. Must have a nice each way chance of this low mark. Stable not amongst the winners recently but Bath is a track where trainer Portman's runners usually perform well.
 
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Two I like at prices run at Chelmsford (surprise surprise)

2:55 - Leodis Dream @ 16/1 EW & 4.4 to place (3 places)

This horse is interesting, despite having a poor start to the season, now back on the artificial surfaces. He won a course 3 year old handicap off a mark of 100 last September, and now runs here off 98. The key for me is that he is a prominent racer, and he should be able to be up with the pace here (Watchable is another likely to be to the fore, but he is better at 5 furlongs in my opinion).

3:25 - Eagle Creek @ 18/1 EW

This one is even more left field, but given that he only ran 9 days ago, and that was after a long time off, they must be happy with his progress and are going out again today. This horse has form from 2017 off a higher mark that makes him look interestingly handicapped, and the key here is that the return to the surface could be the crucial aspect. The fact he drifted last time suggests that was a prep run to get him fit.
 
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OH THIS IS US 11/2 Chelmsford 2;20

This horse doesnt know how to run a bad race so it has taken some time to drop to a handy mark but his rating now is irresistible. He acts on the surface, the trip is fine and with a small field there shouldnt be any hard luck stories. For good measure this point n shoot runner has a seven pound claimer in the plate.

I really like MASTER OF THE SEAS today but happy just to watch seeing as it has been jinxed.
 
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NassauBoard said:
3:25 - Eagle Creek @ 18/1 EW

This one is even more left field, but given that he only ran 9 days ago, and that was after a long time off, they must be happy with his progress and are going out again today. This horse has form from 2017 off a higher mark that makes him look interestingly handicapped, and the key here is that the return to the surface could be the crucial aspect. The fact he drifted last time suggests that was a prep run to get him fit.
Click to expand...

You not worried about the bounce factor? <laugh><laugh><laugh>
 
Good morning chaps

Curragh
235 Couldn't resist a cheeky ew at 60-1 on Amma Grace
310 Que Amoro - there are not many English raiders on the card today, and I expect this to be the best of 'em!
340 Pretty Gorgeous - short fav but a dead cert for JOB
410 Lucky Vega - not buying into MOTS at all, JH's charge should have the winning of this
440 Micro Manage - a pretty weak looking G1, and I'm taking one of Willie Mullins for some ew thievery at 11-2

Good luck all <ok>
 
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Reebok said:
Good morning chaps

Curragh
235 Couldn't resist a cheeky ew at 60-1 on Amma Grace
310 Que Amoro - there are not many English raiders on the card today, and I expect this to be the best of 'em!
340 Pretty Gorgeous - short fav but a dead cert for JOB
410 Lucky Vega - not buying into MOTS at all, JH's charge should have the winning of this
440 Micro Manage - a pretty weak looking G1, and I'm taking one of Willie Mullins for some ew thievery at 11-2

Good luck all <ok>
Click to expand...

Pretty Gorgeous should win.
 
Dunno what's happening with the terrestrial coverage ..... ITV's website says they are covering 5 races from Curragh and 3 from Chelmsford. The programme guide on tv says racing coverage starts at 3pm, which essentially means the 2-20 and 2-55 races from Chelmers can only be shown after the fact!
 
Reebok said:
Dunno what's happening with the terrestrial coverage ..... ITV's website says they are covering 5 races from Curragh and 3 from Chelmsford. The programme guide on tv says racing coverage starts at 3pm, which essentially means the 2-20 and 2-55 races from Chelmers can only be shown after the fact!
Click to expand...
Tv guide on the box is showing the ITV coverage starting at 2 pm
 
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