I can’t wait for Grendel to give his view of how this one won.
Agitare was the archetypal bad favourite.
1. Jim Bolger hasn't been able to train ivy up a wall for years now.
2. The horse was a seven time loser
3. The official handicap mark of 98 was/is nonsense with his performances on RPR 82, 85, 82, 103, 85, 102, 79 and now today 79 again. Two clear outliers that would be removed in any sane mathematical analysis.
4. The horse was gelded after his previous race.
5. The Weld horse had a fake handicap mark of 88 based on one run. His other efforts were 62, 74, 76, 70, 74 and today 55
6. The Harrington horse had a fake handicap mark based on two maiden efforts behind disappointing AOB horses, those runs were rated 82 and 92 and Jungle Cove was awarded an official rating of 96. One of the runs was in the Group 2 Futurity where Armory won but I said at the time that it was the end of Armory's Guineas dreams. People disagreed but Armory has not won since and out of 22 runs that group race has yielded ZERO wins, three places and 19 unplaced. I looked at it at the time and decided it looked a sticky turd of a race and I managed that on instinct, long before the inevitable false ratings followed based on the childlike faith that a Group 2 MUST be of a certain level. Still rated 89, Jungle Cove's other runs have been 58, 67, 76, 67, 71, 75 then gelded and today 55. I suspect only the handicapper sits red faced and harbouring some hope that one day the horse will find the 41 lbs to make his one time 96 rating look like it wasn't a rush of **** to the head. Meantime, it's chop, chop, chop to the 89 mark. 85 anyone?
Of the 15 runner field today, 2 were fillies, 12 were geldings and there was only ONE colt. Guess who? Correct, it was He Knows No Fear. I am surprised your database didn't pick up on that one. Maybe the wrong filter there?
Anyway, I reckon it was my two quid each-way on the lone colt that saw him come in from 500/1 to 400/1 and then 300/1. The smart money
was there but most were wasting their cash on the ball-less non-entities with their inflated ratings based on fluffy form.
As David Frost used to say on Through The Keyhole "The clues are there"
