Daily Racing Thread Saturday 1st. August 2020

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It is very easy to give most of the HQ card a miss, it dominated by small fields. :emoticon-0101-sadsm

It is very easy to give most of the Goodwood card a miss, with two sprint handicaps, a maiden and an apprentice race. :emoticon-0101-sadsm

Looking at what that leaves on the Sussex Downs, Laafy is a cramped enough price in the second race that I will just be watching and the same applies to Enbihaar, odds on in the four runner Lillie Langtry.

I was hoping that I might find something at Deauville but that makes little appeal. :emoticon-0101-sadsm

First day of August and lockdown horseracing is doing its best to keep my money out of the bookies’ accounts. :emoticon-0103-cool:
 
The bubble will eventually burst but until it does I'm still on the Crisford bandwagon. Again tomorrow he has one running all day and it goes at 4.10 Goodwood, CORVAIR 12/1. He has won 3 times over the winter but his last two runs have been pretty poor and has since been gelded. At the price will obviously go ew.
 
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3.35 Goodwood- Atalantas Boy 20/1 ew

Having a long look at this race and seems the pace is drawn low. He is 1/2 at this track (coming second) seems to be progressing up the ranks at 6f winning winning 4/7 Handicaps (3 at this distance) Won’t mind the fast ground and seems a very quick horse looking at the times of his previous runs. Is running off an absolute feather weight with Tom Greatrex taking off 3lbs. And there doesn’t look to be another Khaadem in here. So with William hill giving 7 places this looks a good bet
 
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woolcombe-folly007 said:
3.35 Goodwood- Atalantas Boy 20/1 ew

Having a long look at this race and seems the pace is drawn low. He is 1/2 at this track (coming second) seems to be progressing up the ranks at 6f winning winning 4/7 Handicaps (3 at this distance) Won’t mind the fast ground and seems a very quick horse looking at the times of his previous runs. Is running off an absolute feather weight with Tom Greatrex taking off 3lbs. And there doesn’t look to be another Khaadem in here. So with William hill giving 7 places this looks a good bet
Click to expand...
I’m with you on this one mate, also Themaxwecan in the 2.25 race.
 
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The Stewards Cup is one of those races that I can never resist throwing a dart at and this time round the pointy end is coming up with;
OPEN WIDE 33/1 GOODWOOD 3:35
Third in the race last year and denied a clear passage. I am in no doubt that since that day this has been the plan. The yard is nowhere near the force it was when dad was at the helm but they are still capable enough of having one ready. He went up to a mark of 98 but now sits three pounds lower than this time last year on a mark of 92 which coincidentally is his last winning mark! Granted a clear passage he will go very close.
Dangers lurking everywhere but the one I fear most is Kimifive.
 
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Do not shoot the messenger time... and I cannot believe that I am actually posting this one.

My mate has had a tip for the Goodwood 4:40 – Titian

I will leave you to paint your own picture. The last bet I had on a two year old maiden I was stood with the owner at the track (and it lost); otherwise, I leave them alone.

I used to know a guy in Newmarket would to send me tips and they were always horses trained by Henry Cecil or Michael Stoute, they were always short-priced favourites and half of them lost.
 
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Copied and pasted from the Friday DT where late last night I got confused.com :D

Happy Saturday

Avoiders are:

Goodwood

145 I May Remain (in the stalls)

215 Platitude

300 Enbihaar no bet

335 Open Wide ew

410 Cold Front ..... NR replace with King Ragnar


Nmkt

205 Famille Rose

240 Baashir

315 Cosmic Princess

350 Vivid Diamond

Good luck all <ok>
 
The 12.20 Newmarket sees some promising fillies who have already had a race, taking on potentially decent newcomers.

Danilova is a warm favourite for Charlie Appleby and she comes in after finishing second on her debut. That was an oddly shaped 5 runner affair where Charlie Appleby saddled three of those five. Danilova was actually the outsider of the three, at 6/1, with her stablemates leading the betting at 7/4 and 2/1. The tightness of the betting was perhaps reflected in the fact that the 2/1 shot won and the 7/4 favourite was only 3rd.

Danilova was beaten 3 and a quarter lengths that day but she was 3 and a half lengths clear of the 3rd in a race where clear margins were established. The winner that day had had the advantage of a previous run and didn't clock a particularly high RPR but she steps up to Group 3 company today in the 1.35 Deauville and as the general second favourite for that race it has to be assumed she is thought to be capable of much more.

Is Danilova a good thing then? It would have helped if this race were run after the Deauville one to get some clues but at the odds I want to take Danilova on.

John Gosden saddles a Frankel filly Senita, who is out of Atone, an Oasis Dream mare. She could be a danger to all but the betting seems against her. The once raced Valorant is very weak for Roger Charlton and Lilac Road is on the drift from the Haggas stable.

I took a chance on Anghaam on her debut purely because she was by Frankel out of Natagora. The Dam was a 1000 Guineas winner and the sire needs no introduction. Frankel has not been the influence for speed that might have been assumed and Anghaam ran as if crying out for further when a decent fourth on debut. I noted that after her race and commented that I would be shocked if they didn't send her over 7F next time and she gets that trip today. Pretty weak in the betting this morning but I have to stay with my thinking that Anghaam was worth watching at a longer trip.

Annoyingly for each-way players the non-runner means two places only but I see no real angle in betting to get your money back on a 9/2 shot if it is second, so it was win only for me.

William Hill went 9/2 this morning and that seemed worth a bet to me against a skinny enough favourite.

12.20 Newmarket Anghaam 9/2 to hopefully improve a fair bit for the new trip and with experience under her belt.
 
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Morning all....2 bets for me today:

Goodwood 2.25pm Quloob 11/1 each way. Dropping back in trip should help.

Goodwood 3.35pm George Bowen 30/1 each way 6 places (1/4 odds). Like Stick I also fancied the chances of Kimifive funnily enough who is drawn in stall 1 but in the end decided to chance this fella. Was out of sorts last year, showed signs of some sort of return to form 2 starts ago and is a whopping 19lbs lower than when finishing 5th in this race in 2018. He could easily finish out the back but I can't ignore the fact that he is so well handicapped if running to some sort of level he is capable of.

Good luck all. :emoticon-0167-beer:

P.s I see James Doyle rides over at Deauville today (unusual) and has 3 very good chances.
 
15:35 Goodwood - Kimifive e/w

(Could be a very good draw in Stall #1 (in the old days it was the highest draw number, until they changed it all) but hard to tell nowadays. Finished in the middle of the pack last year, but hoping for a better run under a top young apprentice who still claims the 3lb. Like many on here, can't resist having a bash at the old Stewards' Cup! Modest e/w at current 12/1.)
 
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A stat pointed out on the Opening show Swanny, was that in 7 of the last 8 runnings, the winner has been drawn either from the 4 highest stalls, or the 4 lowest.

If you take any notice of stats ........ my selection is drawn in the middle!
 
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I also considered Atalanta's Boy last night when looking at the Stewards Cup. He's lightly raced for a 5YO and fairly progressive, with his 2/2 record at Goodwood being a bonus. The trainer is 4/11 and 2 placed for a magnificent 36% strike rate currently, so every reason why he is an each-way player from stall 5. The one down side for me is his rating of 88, not so much for it being 7 lbs higher than his last winning mark but because in the last 20 runnings only one horse rated under 90 has landed the race (Bond Boy 83 in 2002) and the trend has seen classier sorts winning.

Gifted Master won off 111 a couple of years back and eight 100+ rated horses have landed the handicap since 2006.

I mentioned last night that the favourite might land this and have to back that thinking. William Haggas seems to do well in this sort of scenario and Nahaarr is rated 101, putting him into the trends on ratings. The horse is 3/4 at 6F and 5/8 overall, so plenty to like about him. The draw in trap 19 may not be ideal but he looks the sort who may well still be fairly treated on his new mark.

Three year olds have done well in recent times so Meraas looks likely to play a part with just one blip when 9th interrupting a winning run. His three handicap runs have yielded zero winners subsequently though and the Mark Johnston stable is 1/29 at Goodwood this week and overall are 7/108 for a 6.5% strike rate this past fortnight. I see Simon Rowlands on ATR has tipped Meraas up and he's had a good meeting whereas plenty haven't and his analysis is always respected. Overall though, I preferred Nahaarr and although 9/2 seemed skinny last night it seemed inevitable that he would end up shorter still.

3.35 Goodwood Nahaarr 9/2 and Atalantas Boy 20/1 EW 7 places were my two darts/donations to the bookies
 
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CaptainPops said:
Morning all....2 bets for me today:
Goodwood 2.25pm Quloob 11/1 each way. Dropping back in trip should help.
Goodwood 3.35pm George Bowen 30/1 each way 6 places (1/4 odds). Like Stick I also fancied the chances of Kimifive funnily enough who is drawn in stall 1 but in the end decided to chance this fella. Was out of sorts last year, showed signs of some sort of return to form 2 starts ago and is a whopping 19lbs lower than when finishing 5th in this race in 2018. He could easily finish out the back but I can't ignore the fact that he is so well handicapped if running to some sort of level he is capable of. Good luck all. :emoticon-0167-beer:
P.s I see James Doyle rides over at Deauville today (unusual) and has 3 very good chances.
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Interesting, Pops. James Doyle has the three rides, two for Godolphin/Charlie Appleby, and the other for trainer John Gosden (Owners: Tweenhills Fillies & Meridian Int.) Might be worth a punt?

The other bright young Godolphin jockey, William Buick, has a mount in every race at Newmarket today, including about four rides for Godolphin (at least two for Charlie Appleby). William might have a good day too, but one can't back 'em all, at least I can't!) :laugh: :bandit:
 
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QuarterMoonII said:
Do not shoot the messenger time... and I cannot believe that I am actually posting this one.

My mate has had a tip for the Goodwood 4:40 – Titian

I will leave you to paint your own picture. The last bet I had on a two year old maiden I was stood with the owner at the track (and it lost); otherwise, I leave them alone.

I used to know a guy in Newmarket would to send me tips and they were always horses trained by Henry Cecil or Michael Stoute, they were always short-priced favourites and half of them lost.
Click to expand...

did you have your ladders ? if so , the horse probably saw you and was spooked !
 
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